JotCast | Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat 5/1/25

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Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat 5/1/25

Dan Szymborski

12:00

It's time for chat!

12:01

https://twitter.com/DSzymborski/status/1852454076229022034

Dan

12:01

Aaron. Judge.

You Buying…

12:01

Wilyer Abreu’s start? His k-rate is a smooch above where you’d probably like it to be but the underlying metrics seem to really support this breakout. ZiPS was already the most bullish projection system on him and hopefully that continues, for my fantasy team’s sake.

dylan

12:02

Wilyer Abreu is having an MVP caliber season and it isn't close!!!!!

Dan Szymborski

12:02

He has an above-average contact rate!

If you have a wRC+ of 166, you can do whatever you want to

12:03

within reason, at least. If you have a wRC+ because you're kidnapping people and performing ritual sacrifice, I think you gotta stop that

dylan

12:03

Do you ever think about Franchy Cordero's 480 feet+ homeruns?

Dan Szymborski

12:03

poro Franchy, he was too beautiful for this world

dylan

12:04

How do you feel about WIlyer Abreu being top 12 in fWAR? He cooled off yes, but consistently playing solid right field with a good bat.

Dan Szymborski

12:05

I mean, he's played really well. I'd like to see him used a little more against lefties, it's not like his splits in minors were that unusual

Steve

12:05

Just speaking it into existence. Pablo Lopez, Correa, Jax, for Moises Ballesteros, Kevin Alcantara, and Owen Caissie. Who says no?

Dan Szymborski

12:05

Probably Twins, though maybe they shouldn't

Whaaa

12:05

The lusty month of May? Is that a thing? Have I been missing out?

Dan Szymborski

12:06

30fWAR

12:06

So, in slightly under 2000PA (it's like 1997 I think), since the start of 2022, Judge has now surpassed 30fWAR. What I think is so impressive is he's amassing tons of WAR at a time when WAR is fairly well understood but he also has such eye-popping "traditional" stats (.313/.439/.680 with 167 hr, 60 per 162) that he's sort of right in a sweetspot to impress us stat people and Talk Radio Call-In (aside from October).

12:06

How would you order these 2b-eligible players in a OBP keeper league: Gabriel Arias, Luis Rengifo, Colt Keith, Edouard Julien, Miguel Vargas

Dan Szymborski

12:07

swap keith and arias. and then put julien ahead of arias?

Insert Witty Name Here

12:07

Doughy huh? What kind of bread would you end up as? Sourdough? Bagels? Pumpernickel?

Dan Szymborski

12:07

deep-fried

Mike

12:07

Do you think Andrelton Simmons is a top 5 fielding Shortstop all time

Dan Szymborski

12:08

I think the case can be made.

It's May

12:08

Is there ANY reason to be worried about Juan Soto?

Dan Szymborski

12:08

I mean, you'd like to see a hotter start, but it's not WORRY territory yet

12:09

And, of course, since he's a Met, there's always a background worry

Carlos Mendoza

12:09

The Mets starters have been great but they also don't pitch deep into games. Is this just what happens when you avoid the time through the order penalty? Fortunately the bullpen has been great too.

Dan Szymborski

12:09

I think this is pretty much by design when you look at the names in the rotation

12:10

I think as time goes on, we'll see less of a line between starters and relievers

Symbo Slice

12:10

Should the Orioles trade away some pieces and re-tool for next year like the Mets did? It's not working in Baltimore, and I don't see how free agent signings this off-season fix this team. What say you sir?

Dan Szymborski

12:10

I don't know if I'm there yet, but I think I'd get there quicker than most. As I said in my piece a few days ago, I just don't see where someone swoops in and saves the day

Guards! Guards!

12:12

I think this came up in Jay's chat - someone asked a question about Luke Easter, whose career partially predated MLB records. Is it possible to use ZiPs in reverse to project their peak/early career from the decline phase and see what could have been with players like that?

Dan Szymborski

12:12

I actually have a ZiPS Time Warp piece that was never completed on Luke Easter