JotCast | Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat 4/3/25

Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat 4/3/25

Dan Szymborski

12:00

And awaaaaaay we go!

Guest

12:00

Given his past performance, and what you've seen from him so far this season, when do you expect Lindor's slow start will end?

Dan Szymborski

12:00

April :-)

Houzer

12:01

More excited this year for Jack Leiter or McKenzie Gore?

Dan Szymborski

12:01

Maybe Gore slightly? The nats pitching holding up and a Gore breakout is their playoff path, and that intrigues me. Though I get more of a benefit with Leiter since he was on his breakouts list

Bubbles

12:01

Is there any research on how many pitches to a hitter it takes for swing metrics like O-Zone Swing % to start becoming signal over noise of small samples?

Dan Szymborski

12:02

I've done some work and this stuff is quite important in just a few dozen PA

Houzer

12:02

Tigers call the Pirates and offer Matt Manning for David Bednar. Fair deal?

Dan Szymborski

12:02

At this point, probably, but I'm not sure that's the Tigers need

John

12:02

During the opening day chat you said that Devers' career WAR projection is identical even if he plays DH for the rest of his career. Can you explain that more? Even with his poor defense he has always graded out much better than a DH - just compare his ZiPS ROS depth chart projection to his normal ROS projection - there is a full win of difference. Is his defense worse than I think, the DH positional adjustment less than I think, or some mix of both?

Dan Szymborski

12:03

Well, for one, ZiPS projects his defense to decline over time. Second, I use a 1B penalty for DH

Dreamin

12:03

The NL west is already a bloodbath

Alex A.

12:03

Without knowing precisely what the problem is with the Braves, would you say it's time for our fans to crack each other's heads open and feast on the goo inside?

Dan Szymborski

12:03

Yes

errr, I think it is, Kent

RTJ

12:04

Thoughts on the contract extension run? Did Merrill get a fair shake?

Dan Szymborski

12:04

Decently so. ZiPS had it a bit higher, but he's a ways away from FA

Mickey

12:04

What pitcher Statcast metrics are currently incorporated? Is it pitch level data like spin rates or using expected outcomes like xWOBA?

When a new Statcast metric like swing speed comes out, what's your threshold for incorporating it into ZIPS?

Any analysis you can share of ZIPS's accuracy pre-statcast data versus today?

Dan Szymborski

12:04

Plate discipline, quality of contact, velocity, zips has its own expected outcome

12:05

I have a stuff model, but I'm not yet confident enough to move it into the main model

ZiPS has incrementally improved. This stuff, when we talk about median projections, only really shades it a little

Galen

12:05

How soon will you incorporate new data into the Zips projections for rest of season. Example higher max EV , bat speed, etc. for a hitter. Or velocity increase / decrease for pitching; pitch mix changes, etc.

Dan Szymborski

12:05

When I figure out how to work it into a simplified in-season model

Guest

12:05

We've had a "State of Fangraphs" post today so I think it's fitting to get a "State of Dan" update. What are the two or three most important updates you want to share from the past year?

Dan Szymborski

12:05

I've lost 53 pounds!

12:06

Still have more to lose. I have too sedentary a lifestyle and my back problems made that worse

12:07

Though my blood pressure/glucose were always fine and my heartrate middling

eatbug

12:07

Garret Crochet is a top __ starter in baseball?

Dan Szymborski

12:07

Bubbles

12:07

Level of excitement for Tommy Two Bags Edman small sample size of growing up to Tommy HR Machine Edman?

Dan Szymborski

12:07

it ruins a good nickname

RTJ

12:07

more surprising week: Braves slow start or padres hot start?

Dan Szymborski

12:07

Braves being THIS bad

Phil

12:07

Are you planning to write up the Campbell extension? It looks really team-friendly to me, but it's hard to judge these super early ones. He has the feel of a star in the making but I know it's not like you can bank on feel.

Dan Szymborski

12:08

Jay has it, though I ran projections from him

Bob Loblaw

12:08

In May 2024, an Indiana judge ruled that tacos and burritos are "Mexican-style sandwiches."

Dan Szymborski

12:08

for the purposes of legal recognition and for the purposes of use in speech are two very different things

Key Flaw

12:08

What game could have the largest effect on predictions? Not counting injuries, but how extreme does a game have to be to effect a team's or a player's predictions? A perfect game? Five strikeouts? Four errors? Four home runs?

Dan Szymborski

12:08

really, any extreme performance, and one game is really small in any indication

Guest

12:08

Miles Mikolas vs Sean Newcomb on Sunday Night Baseball this week is probably a recession indicator