JotCast | Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 4/24/24

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Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 4/24/24

Dan Szymborski

12:00

ITS PEANUT BUTTER JELLY TIME

Well, may not. I never liked peanut butter and jelly. Mostly because I only like peanut butter by itself

I watch the rockies

12:00

it is "April" but is Kyle Karros better than Ryan McMahon right now?

Dan Szymborski

12:01

PROBABLY a stretch, but I don't think the gulf is as big as the Rockies may think

Especially if ZiPS is correct in loving his defense

Miggy

12:01

Is PCA ready for a break out?

Ben

12:01

Obviously PCA isn't going to run a 146 wrc+ all year right? RIGHT?

Dan Szymborski

12:01

What, break out MORE than an 11-WAR pace?

Suffice it to say, that's not going to happen! I think

12:03

It is nice for PCA to start getting some real attention. It's usually his brother that gets all the attention for owning the Twins

Ethan

12:04

Which handful of stats give you the most confidence that the mets (even with regression on the pitching side) can be a 95 plus win team?

Dan Szymborski

12:04

Alonso going absolutely apeshit offensively certainly helps

Ben

12:04

Am I crazy as a Cubs fan for wanting the Cubs to go all in on a Pablo Lopez/Carlos Correa packaged deal? Maybe throw in Griffin Jax?

Dan Szymborski

12:04

No, you're not crazy

The Oriole Bird

12:05

Is it helpful to society to have at least some number of athletes who seem like they stand only for conscientiousness and teamwork--and just avoid all other topics in their professional lives? (Think: Cal Ripken.) I think the answer is probably yes; but it is not fair to foist this on any individual player. And it does not mean every player must be judged through this as the ideal. Also these people should be understood to have real internal lives that go beyond the facade.

Dan Szymborski

12:05

I'm not sure it really matters much one way or the other?

Also, Cal Ripken will be *65* this year, which absolutely blows my goddamn mind

CHRIS MAD DOG RUSSO

12:07

HEY DAN, LOVE YOUR SHOW. WHAT'S UP WITH ADLEY RUTSCHMAN? I MEAN COME ON!

Dan Szymborski

12:07

The O's just stopped hitting since tax day or so!

Natitude Adjuster

12:07

I loved Michael Baumann's article on Cedric Mullins. Worryingly from the Orioles' perspective, I noticed that Ced is 3rd on the list of wOBA minus xwOBA in 2025 (min 70 PA). Thoughts on that as a brute force way to see who's underlying performance isn't well-matched to their actual outcomes?

Dan Szymborski

12:07

It's not a bad way to look at it

Bruce

12:08

Is there any publicly available way to see minor league barrel rates?

Dan Szymborski

12:08

Minor League statcast search!

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/statcast-search-minors

Kevin

12:08

Thanks for the chat Dan. re: CIN best guess ranking who carves out most PT and fantasy stat relevance in 2025? McLain, Lux, Marte, Candelario.

Dan Szymborski

12:08

Same order as you!

James

12:11

Does Ryan Gusto have potential or is he a depth piece?

Dan Szymborski

12:12

He's probably not THIS good, but he's likely at least a good mid-bullpen guy

ZiPS had him as a 103 ERA+ as a reliever

now, he's been better than that, but that he's pitching well is SOMETHING

Trash Panda

12:12

Despite having by far the best defense according to OAA, the Cardinals are really underperforming their FIP. Is the team actually decent as they have the 9th best wRC+ as well. Bullpen is bad for sure though leading to close game losses.

The Oriole Bird

12:12

If this venerable website is to be believed--and I have no reason to think it shouldn't be--then the following is true: "If Tyler O’Neill opts out of his contract after this year, which is his right, the Orioles’ only payroll commitment for 2026 will be a $1 million buyout of Andrew Kittredge’s club option." Craziness. What should the Orioles do?

Dan Szymborski

12:12

More than they have for sure!

12:13

As an O's fan, I remain absolutely beside myself that they so half-assed getting a pitcher this winter

Walt

12:13

When is Mike Elias going to be fired?

Dan Szymborski

12:13

I doubt in-season, but I think he could be in trouble if the O's finish 76-86

or something

Because there's no excuse for that in win-now mode

Greg

12:14

Teams have been reluctant to sign older FA's, even cheap ones recently. Brandon Belt last year, Mark Canha, etc.

Andrew Heaney signed in late Feb for 5.25m

Has there been an overcorrection by teams with respect to the aging curve? Is there a possible market inefficiency emerging with short term, low dollar contracts to aging guys that still have stuff in the tank?

I realize you have a counter example on the Pirates in the form of Tommy Pham, but Heaney signing for 5.25m on February 22nd seemed wild at the time and even more bananas now

Dan Szymborski

12:14

I'm not sure teams are overcorrecting. Obviously, some of those cheap guys are going to work out. But a ton are not.

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