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Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 4/23/26

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Dan Szymborski

12:15

Here! Sorry, I had a weird problem getting int

thelwynn

12:15

The Mets are back, how long until they are in first place?

Dan Szymborski

12:15

It's hard to say. The Mets will get to first place if there's sufficient time remaining in the season for another tragic downfall

Farhandrew Zaidman

12:15

Evergreen question - is Shohei a better hitter or pitcher?

Dan Szymborski

12:15

Probably still hitter

Judge, speed demon

12:15

It's pretty funny Judge's "slow" start is 9 HR and a 163 OPS+ with 5 steals. With Ohtani and Soto probably taking it easy because of pitching and injury, maybe he's the next huge slugger with surprising SB totals (he usually does steal 10-15 a year)

Dan Szymborski

12:16

You gotta be pretty happy when THAT is your slow start

It's too bad for the injury this year as I was hoping Soto would be the weirdest 40/40 guy

SidDaAstrosKid

12:17

Howdy Dan, non baseball question cause I am hungry -> kolaches or bagels? IDK if kolaches are big where you are (I am in Texas) but I am a huge fan and want to evangelize about them cause they're super good. Baseball question -> With the Mets having won a baseball game, have the Phillies taken their place as the worst team in baseball?

Dan Szymborski

12:17

They're not really in direct competition though

12:18

I've only had kolaches a few times, they've never been big anywhere I've lived

It's hard enough getting a proper bagel in Ohio

12:19

To get a really proper bagel, you either have to go through the time and energy to make it yourself or you have to reserve bagels witih this dude in Yellow Springs not far from Chappelle's house who makes bagels out of his kitchen

Rob A

12:19

The Mets won a game. April!

Sky Blue Skyline

12:19

Back of the napkin how much would it cost for the Brewers to extend all of Contreras, Turang, Misio, and Made?

Dan Szymborski

12:19

For the batch, certainly north of $200 million

Seth

12:20

What does ZiPS think of Samuel Zavala? He's young for AA and has seemingly found something over the last few months of last year and continuing into this year. Thanks.

Dan Szymborski

12:21

ZiPS has been sub-meh on Zavala, but the April 20th run just ifnished so let me check that real quick to see if it's budged

12:25

Has moved a bit

dangit

https://ibb.co/TQWpKRz

12:26

The Hoffman

12:26

Is it time to drop Jeff Hoffman?

Dan Szymborski

12:27

In fantasy at least, probably, as he's likely to lose save opportunities

Baseball learner

12:27

Who does Zips believe more likely to sustain their early season success, Ryan Weathers or Will Warren? Could it forecast who might get a bigger bump from moving to the pen?

Dan Szymborski

12:28

ZiPS is pretty close on both but sees Weathers as getting bigger bump in relief

I'm personally a little more comfortable on Warren

12:28

What do you see as the issue with Austin Riley these days? Seems to have very little success against quality RHP, but he’s always kinda seemed overmatched against them. Mechanically and data-wise everything looks pretty similar to his heyday

Dan Szymborski

12:29

It's weird, I've had the same issue seeing Riley. He doesn't LOOk that much different and some of the weaknesses in his game are the same as when he was good

It looks like he's putting crappier stuff in play than in the past, but the data on that didn't seem strong last I checked, and there's some selection bias; since I know the results are worse, it can infect my observations

Natitude Adjuster

12:29

Any word about whether the Nats are trying to lock up Abrams/Wood for relatively long-term deals? Or do you think they'll flip them as they get close to their FA status?

Dan Szymborski

12:30

I haven't heard anything, but that doesn't mean nothing's going on

I hear a lot of stuff, but I hear different types of stuff than, say, Jeff Passan hears

12:31

I'm kind of a hybrid data journalist guy rather than a more traditional reporter, so I tend to talk less often with VPs/GMs and very rarely with managers, but a lot more often with the rank-and-file analytics staffers

12:32

So I have a very good grasp on general approaches front offices take, but a poorer one on things like individual negotiations

Sal's Mom

12:32

How much has Sal's 3yr projection changed after his scorching start? I have to say, the 6 stolen bases are a big surprise

Dan Szymborski

12:32

Decently, but not as much as you would think as ZiPS was already positive on Stewart

Kyle

12:33

With the Lindor injury, did the Mets find a way to lose more playoff probability during a win than during the previous 12 losses?

Dan Szymborski

12:33

That's a very mets thing to do

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