JotCast | Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat

Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 3/4/19

Gub Gub

12:01

Favorite John Candy movie...GO!

Dan Szymborski

12:01

P, T, A. Though I have a soft spot for Harry Crumb

12:02

Hanley have anything left in the tank?

Dan Szymborski

12:02

No.

James m

12:02

Where are some good fits for Dallas Kuechel?

Dan Szymborski

12:02

LIkely writing something about this!

Devil Ray Jay Johnson

12:02

With Sal Perez out, should the Royals (1) play their marginal catching prospects, (2) sign Maldanado, or (3) wait for a minor trade or waiver claim for someone's third catcher who will not make the big team at the end of spring training?

Dan Szymborski

12:02

They should 1, they'll probably 2

Jonathan

12:02

Some of the projections (especially projected WAR) look very different when comparing ZiPS articles and the Projections download. Do you have any intuitions as to why this might be?

Dan Szymborski

12:03

I don't use the pure FIP WAR, I include projected LI in my projections, and I do some other things differently (DH set as 1B replacement because of strong evidence of DH hurting offensive performance to a degree)

Captain J.W.A. Funkyfresh

12:03

Tell more stories

Dan Szymborski

12:03

I would think you guys got your fill last week!

LFC Mike

12:03

A good frozen Monday morning Dan. 2 months since your Braves Zips. Any changes on your thoughts on Ozzie Albies or Touki? The 2H performance from Albies seems to be dominating peoples minds. Learning curve up?

Dan Szymborski

12:03

Well, it's not changing the ZiPS! Though I really like both

Devil Ray Jay Johnson

12:03

Assuming the Rays move at the end of their lease, where do they go?

Dan Szymborski

12:04

Nowhere. Baseball wants to keep teams for extortion candidates

Tim Tebow's Thunder Thighs

12:04

Bold predictions for where Kimbrel ends up? Any chance of SD reunion?

Dan Szymborski

12:04

Dammit, I'm doing a piece on this!

Gub Gub

12:05

Do you believe the decision of the United States Congress to fail to ratify the Treaty of Versailles over the League of Nations was a result of knee-jerk partisan opposition to Wilson's dickish sermonizing approach, or a genuine concern over turning over too much sovereignty in foreign affairs to a Allied-led Europe that appeared to have learned nothing over the previous 4 years of war?

Dan Szymborski

12:05

I'd say parts of both.

12:06

Even after entering WWI, there still wasn't a "great" reason for the US to be involved in WWI. Unlike WWII, this was a war that was largely European diplomatic tangles. I *still* don't see a compelling reason for us to have been involved. So there wasn't the stomach on a lot of people for getting involved any more than needed.

Gaslamp Gary

12:06

Any reason besides the dumb service time clock that Chris Paddack wouldn't be the Padres Opening Day starter?

Dan Szymborski

12:07

Well, Lucchesi is the best starter on the team *at this moment*

12:08

Hopefully they won't try to game Super Two. The Padres are a highly interesting wild card team if they hit their flush on a couple of starting pitchers this year, so the more starts they have from those guys that could actually do that, the better

Jkim

12:08

Kershaw seems to have a shoulder issue - assuming he won't make it how much does it hurt the Dodgers' chances this year? Still NL West favorites by far though right?

Dan Szymborski

12:08

I think the Dodgers are the clear favorite if Kershaw retires to become a Frangelico salesman.

Ben

12:08

Is there concern with ATL going into the season, not doing enough to improve the team? FG projects Braves to finish 4th in the East. Donaldson keeps getting held back. Swanson's wrist still hurts. Folty, Gausman, Soroka, Minter, Gohara all have sore shoulders/elbows. Ugh.

Dan Szymborski

12:08

THe injuries are concerning. They've had more than their fair share

Tim Tebow's Thunder Thighs

12:08

Who will be labeled "in the best shape of their lives" in spring training that will absolutely not live up to it?

Dan Szymborski

12:09

95% of players

Gaslamp Gary

12:09

Can't teams manipulate service time even if they allow the player to make the Opening Day roster? Like, send them to the "IL" for "reasons"?

Dan Szymborski

12:09

As long as it's more than 20 days on optional assignment, yes

Adam

12:09

Do expected statistics take into account the speed of a player? If not, how do you think this can be incorporated?

Dan Szymborski

12:09

ZiPS does.

Gaslamp Gary

12:09

I am not trying to knock Vlad Jr in any way. Just curious. Why is he the #1 overall prospect when he clearly is lacking in defense and speed? I get #1 overall hitter, absolutely, but shouldn't the #1 overall spot go to a 5-tool kinda guy? Like Tatis, Robles or Lewis?

Dan Szymborski

12:10

Well, the tools aren't created equal.

Devil Ray Jay Johnson

12:10

Be honest: who was your pre-offseason pick for last free agent to sign major league deal?

Dan Szymborski

12:10

Moustakas

Matt

12:11

Thoughts on Kingery? That contract due to defense, or do you think there's something in his bat?