JotCast | Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat

Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 3/31/22

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Dan Szymborski

12:04

Welcome to SzymChat! Now, we should have had baseball this week, but at least we'll have it next Thursday instead of , say, nothing until 2023!

Fish

12:04

What's for lunch?

Dan Szymborski

12:04

Probalby some leftover pizza.

Biscuit Barn

12:04

Daaaan !!!
How worried are you about Bellinger not being able to hit ?

Dan Szymborski

12:04

Quite. There were already reasons to be worried

12:05

And while spring training doesn't mean a LOT, Rosenheck showed some years ago that it means a LITTLE of something

and Bellinger did not have a good spring training

James

12:05

Do you know if the fan projections will be happening this year on Fangraphs?

Dan Szymborski

12:06

I have no specific info, but I don't believe so.

Not sure

The lockout stuff has made the schedule a nightmare

Quarantino Martinez

12:06

Does Shane Baz go to the mlb or milb IL? He's on the 40 man but could get optioned first?

Dan Szymborski

12:07

Injured players aren't supposed to be option

12:08

I believe -- but do not have the language in front of me -- that to option a player to have to have no service time the previous year and not be a Rule 5 pick, and then there's only a window at the start of the season to do that

12:09

There are too many ways to manipulate service time and salary with injuries by allowing options

TomBruno23

12:09

Over/Under on Pujols' HR total for 2022? 9.5?

Dan Szymborski

12:09

I'd probably take the under because I think he's more likely to be a 150-200 PA special

I don't think the Cards are going to play him aggressively

Ari

12:10

Have you locked in and over/under RSWs yet?

Dan Szymborski

12:10

No. This spring has been a frantic one and I just don't have the bandwidth right now to site down and evaluate bets.

baycommuter

12:11

Do you buy that Alex Bregman will never return to his '18-'19 numbers because his power was based on launch angle instead of velocity and he needed the juiced baseball?

Dan Szymborski

12:11

Now, it's quite possible that he just peaked -- 24/25 year olds hit their peaks more often than people think

12:12

But the evidence since then is so mixed and you have externalities like COVID year screwing things up and injury

Chuck

12:12

What are your expectations for Alejando Kirk's playing time?

Dan Szymborski

12:13

I think he may end up with the most total PA of the catchers, simply because you can justify using him some at DH.

My guess is that the Jays are hoping for one of their catchers to finally CLEARLY look a superior option to the others.

12:14

There's not a lot of time to figure out who these guys are before Gabriel Moreno starts pounding on the door

Erik

12:14

Do you know what's up with Seiya Suzuki's ZiPS projection? Your article on him in February included a pretty encouraging line, but his ZiPS DC projection has him at a 68.

Dan Szymborski

12:14

The ZiPS DC projeciton is all messed up

12:15

There isn't actually ZiPS in the system yet (though there ought to be as early as today) for Suzuki, by an oversight (I didn't send David players without an MLBAM ID at the time.). So the method David uses messed things up with Suzuki and ZiPS. You'll notice that only Steamer is used for the projection itself!

Bilbo Baggins

12:16

No sleeper columns this year? I was looking forward to them

Dan Szymborski

12:17

They're going to be first week of the season content - I'm locking in the names before opening day and it's not like a few games would put people on or off a list

Again, a product of the schedule

Erik

12:17

There's an idea out there that teams with tons of depth and relatively flat rosters (i.e. a smaller gap between their best and worst players) can reliably outpace projections, as they're more adaptable to in-season misfortune. If true, is that something that could be accounted for somehow?

Dan Szymborski

12:17

It depends on the approach.

ZiPS tries to take this approach - it doesn't assume a roster will be healthy. I talk about this in the ZiPS Intro!

12:18

either to the projections themselves or to the lockout standings

The hardest thing is *in-season* changes

12:19

Not surprisingly, the teams that ZiPS has underrated the most in 17 seasons are the teams that have made the most in-season moves to add talent

(The Yankees and Astros are at the top of underrated)

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