JotCast | Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat

Dan Szymborski

12:02

Here is Dan, with #PanicDoritos

Daniel

12:03

So, favorite and least favorite baseball movie?

Dan Szymborski

12:03

Favorite: Sandlot

LEast: Field of Dreams. I find it treacly and overwrought.

LAXTONTO

12:04

Where, of all people, did a confernces select me to review a qualitative paper? I do heavy quant stuff all the time and I got stuck with this?!?!?!

How are you and the cats my friend?

Dan Szymborski

12:04

All alive, which is a good thing!

Being alive is the best.

eloquentboot

12:04

Daniel, what are your tips for household budgeting? I've been led to believe that this is an area that you have expertise in, I'll take my answer off air.

Dan Szymborski

12:04

I do?

12:05

I basically know how much is in my checking account within the first digit or so

LAXTONTO

12:05

I miss baseball.....

Can you give me a good example of a Poisson distribution?

Dan Szymborski

12:06

Ha, you know you're more qualified than I am for this question! Think of anything with a fixed time interval and a known probability. Preferably a low probability, something like traffic accidents in a specific stretch of highway over a year.

LAXTONTO

12:06

Have you considered that if you look at the mean time in a minor league level per prospect that you could then find if the timeframe has the properties of a Poisson distribution, which would then lead to the idea to find probablities of how rare a prospects success rate at a given level would be... just spitballing, but might have to play around with that saome

Dan Szymborski

12:06

I do a diffrent approach.

12:07

Question about 2021 ZiPS: how would a shortened season or (worst case) no season affect projections for next year?

Dan Szymborski

12:07

I don't have much of a basis to make such a change in projections!

We're in uncharted territory here.

The best thing to do, absent evidence to the contrary, is assume that everyone being off sorta evens out the layoff penalty. Even if we know it's not true.

LAXTONTO

12:07

Have you ever danced with the devil in the pale moon light?

Dan Szymborski

12:08

I think you're getting stir-crazy Ben.

LAXTONTO

12:08

How many statistical distributions can you name off the top of your head?

Dan Szymborski

12:08

20?

LAXTONTO

12:08

What do you expect to be the next area to see a significant leap in trying to model/analyze in baseball?

Dan Szymborski

12:08

think we're still trying to figure out injuries

LAXTONTO

12:08

Favorite pre 2000s comedy?]

Dan Szymborski

12:08

Seinfeld

Javy

12:08

What’s a realistic expectation for Oscar Mercado this year as well as peak years? Would Starling Marte type numbers be something realistic to hope for?

Dan Szymborski

12:09

Upside is realistic. On the average, I don't think he's that good.

as in Marte good

not the generalized "not that good"

Ben's Chili Bowl

12:09

Dan, I recently made chili and followed a recipe that called for 1/2 cup of chili powder per 3 lbs of meat. I found the seasoning to be overwhelming. What say you about the ideal ratio of seasoning to meat?

Dan Szymborski

12:09

Don't use chili powder!

You cook down chilis after reconstituting them!

12:10

And one or two of those little cans of chipotle en adobo are amazing

LAXTONTO

12:10

I want Indian food... not sure where that craving came from

Dan Szymborski

12:10

Well, there's a lot of good stuff

I was sad to see that Indian chef Floyd Cardoz, froM Top Chef Masters, passed away from COVID

Ben's Chili Bowl

12:11

PS - As the seasoning was overwhelming, we were forced to cut it by adding beans, thus rendering the final product non-chili.

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