JotCast | Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 3/16/23

Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 3/16/23

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Dan Szymborski

12:04

It is time. A time for chats.

Nick

12:04

Jeff Zimmerman raised some concerns about Jordan Walker’s swing and miss. What’s your level of concern about it? K rates in the minor leagues seem fine but I’m trying to figure out what we should realistically expect from him.

Dan Szymborski

12:05

I'm not super concerned, his strikeout rates aren't really a problem in the minors, and for a prospect, I think passivity is even more dangerous than aggressiveness

It's an argument I had with people who were angry that Kris Bryant got like a three WAR projection his rookie season

It was all "but minor league strikeout rate"

But when a guy has a 1.000 OPS or something, they're *incentivized* to be aggressive.

Guest

12:06

Andrew Vaughn has a high ceiling per ZIPS. How do you feel about his potential this year?

Dan Szymborski

12:06

I've always been a bit concerned with how the Sox developed him

12:08

If you're going to promote a 1B to the majors whose professional career was 6 homers in A-ball, then how do you not use them at all in the intervening season?

cool

2

12:09

And then this guy who has yet to hit for power against minor league pitchers not only has to succeed in the majors suddenly has to learn a new position. It's not like Vaughn was some maestro of defense that they wanted to just see him somewhere harder

This was a case of bending the player to fit the plan instead of the plan to the player. I'm just glad that Vaughn did so well despite the incredibly odd way the White Sox developed him

Justin

12:09

Hi Dan. I'm bewildered by Max Kepler's career Babip. Do you think it all has to do with the shift and his average will go up this year, or are there other factors as well?

Dan Szymborski

12:11

I think average will trend up, but it's not going to be a game-changer in many individual players

12:12

I talked about this in the Joey Gallo section of the busts piece

12:14

In Kepler's case, he doesn't hit particularly hard and isn't particularly fast and isn't much of a line-drive hitter, and that doesn't lead to very good BABIPs

Bryan

12:14

Zero to three players hurt during this chat? Why have you kidnapped three players and threatened them with violence? Are they tied up in your basement or something, with an AI-controlled Rube Goldberg device dangling heavy weights over their elbows?

Dan Szymborski

12:14

Gotta leave a margin of error

laxtotnto

12:15

Now since you are an international sensation, how has your newfound celebrity status changed your life?

Dan Szymborski

12:15

When did the first part of this sentence happen?

Eric

12:15

Who do you feel more confident in becoming a major contributor faster - ZIPs agnostic - Tovar or Grissom?

Dan Szymborski

12:15

Grissom easily.

Not because Tovar.

But because Tovar being a major contributor faster involves Colorado Rockies decision-making

Duane the bathtub, I'm drowning!

12:16

Besides the statistics in how he ended last year my gut tells me that MacKenzie Gore returns to pre-injury form from last year's elbow issue. What do you think?

Dan Szymborski

12:16

I'm hopeful, but not unrealistic

laxtotnto

12:16

What is the weirdest result Zips has given you lately? What extreme outlier has it put out that made you stop and go wtf?

Dan Szymborski

12:16

ZiPS loves Dean Kremer

Chuck

12:16

How much Edwin Diaz Knees can Edwin Diaz Knees Knee if Edwin Diaz kneads his knee?

Dan Szymborski

12:16

sadness. :-(

12:17

Not sure how to answer that, so I outsourced it.

12:18

As an AI language model, I'm not quite sure what you mean by "Edwin Diaz Knees". However, assuming you meant "how much pressure can Edwin Diaz's knees exert on his own knee if he applies force", the answer would depend on various factors such as Edwin Diaz's body weight, muscle strength, and the angle and direction of the force applied. Without specific information about these factors, it is difficult to provide a precise answer.

laughing

1

laxtotnto

12:18

What was your favorite childhood cartoon?

Dan Szymborski

12:18

Original TMNT cartoon

cool

2

Royals fan

12:18

Is spring training predictive of anything? (Asking for a friend.)

Dan Szymborski

12:18

Mildly, at least on the player level

jmcgee

12:18

Realistically, what is the most excitement I should allow myself to feel re: Jarred Kelenic?

Dan Szymborski

12:19

Mild-plus

Leao's

12:19

For example. I feel Texas is going to underperform the projections mainly because of their bullpen. If you are trying to save DeGrom's arm and get 5 great innings from him, you still need to other 4 innings which are likely to be mediocre.

Dan Szymborski

12:19

Yeah, but you kinda need to cover 4 innings a ton anyway!

Dazzy

12:20

explain the new prospect - Rookie of the year voting - service time thing to me like I'm 5 years old.

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