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Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 3/12/26

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Dan Szymborski

12:00

A rarity! Dan is on time and not distracted by arguing something with someone elsewhere

robertobeers

12:00

A man a Dan a chat cat update tadputactahcanadanama

Poncetification

12:00

When pondering Ponce, how does ZiPS weigh the surge in Korea vs more mediocrity in Japan vs MLB and MiLB way back when?

Dan Szymborski

12:01

Most strongly (since it's most recent), but it's also treated like a league between AA and AAA

That doesn't mean the best players aren't as good as MLBers, but the depth of talent isn't the same, and a pitcher/hitter will face mostly non-MLB talents'

12:02

ZiPS sees NPB as between AAA and MLB

sgb

12:02

I noticed that your projections are the lowest of any for Aaron Judge. Is that because you have included post season stats and the others haven't?

Dan Szymborski

12:03

They are?

ZiPS DC is 7.8 WAR, 175 wRC+ while Steamer is 6.6, 170

12:04

ZiPS and THE BAT are close in the middle, Steamer on the low end, OOPSY on the high end

And ZiPS does give Judge a small hit with postseason stats

12:05

though 2025 was fine

137 postseason PA in four years is *something* but it's also not going to be massive

Surplus Valuez = Stolen Wages

12:06

What’s the best ZiPs projection a DSL player can receive/achieve?

Dan Szymborski

12:06

Not sure, since I don't project many of them! Probably fairly low, of course, since there's only so much you can show in the DSL

Idiotic Failson

12:07

Why does ZIPS hate my favorite player?

Dan Szymborski

12:07

That's between you and your creator

Old No. 7

12:07

Any upward mobility clauses or upcoming opt-outs of significance we should be aware of?

Dan Szymborski

12:07

Anything not already known? Not sure

Chris

12:07

Brewers have a ton of arms. Based on what you think, what 5 SP gets most starts in rotation this year for them?

Dan Szymborski

12:08

I think the depth chart is on point here

Phil

12:08

What do you think is Triston Casas's future? It feels like the Sox are moving on, but then Casas still has a year of team control beyond Contreras's current contract--will they just keep him in reserve?

Dan Szymborski

12:08

Since he still has minor league options, I expect he'll play full time in AAA while the Red Sox assess where he is

They might need him

12:09

I have a piece in the queue, and one of the characteristics of the worst projected Red Sox seasons that was common was a surprisingly poor Contreras season. Aging non-star 1B appear to have really long left tails in their distros

Devil Ray Jay Johnson

12:09

A Dan chat? In this economy? Which team will most regret not making one more mid-sized move this offseason?

12:10

Which unheralded Rays pitcher will break out and end the season with the most "he'd get some Cy Young votes if he'd pitched more innings" chatter?

Dan Szymborski

12:10

I think the Cubs will regret not getting one more starting pitcher

12:12

Joe Boyle maybe? I mean his projections aren't amazing or anything, but he seems like one of those guys that IF he works out, he really works out

War2D2

12:12

Dan! A long-ish time ago you responded to my questions on Bluesky about custom keyboards. I recently acquired a Keychron V6 Max and love it. I am planning on customizing the keycaps and switches piecemeal. Thanks again for answering my weird niche hobby questions!

Dan Szymborski

12:12

No problem! I'm definitely a keyboard nerd

Though I haven't made any purchases along those lines

12:13

I've cut down on bullshit purchases lately, because I'm still trying to cost/benefit out whether it's a good idea to get a used bosendorfer grand if I find a decent one under 25K or so

TooDamnTall

12:14

Dan, can you please contact YouTube and get them to remove all instances of Kevin Mitchell's barehanded catch removed from 'best defensive plays' videos. Thanks in advance

Broken Bat

12:14

Does a super Spring training like McLain of Reds is having carry much weight in his 2026 projections? Surgery in 2023, missed 2024, maybe a year to get rust out? Anyway, what are your thiughrs

Dan Szymborski

12:14

It'll have SOME weight, but it depends the magnitude

Zip-a-Dee-Doo-Dah

12:14

Semi-surprised to learn that, after Detroit's recent FA splurge, San Fran's payroll is no longer Top 10. Ignoring the utter inanity that is John Henry's Boston, does Charles Johnson top your list of big market baseball owners who should give waaaaay more sh!tes about winning baseball games?

Dan Szymborski

12:15

I'm not sure I'd go that far

After all, they quite publicly were all-in on Aaron Judge and a lot of people thought it was a done deal. They also were in on Ohtani at a good price

Devil Ray Jay Johnson

12:16

If got to go to the original Fantasy Island, do you pick a baseball-themed fantasy (like the one where Radar from MASH got to play with George Brett and Fred Lynn) or something else?

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