JotCast | Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat

Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 2/25/21

Dan Szymborski

12:03

It is a chat.

Jon

12:05

With whom do Odorizzi and Bradley Jr. sign, and what do their contracts look like (in terms of years and dollars, not in terms of what a contract actually looks like)?

Dan Szymborski

12:05

No idea where, but I imagine we're now at the verge of looking at 1 year deals, probably under $10 million

Sadman

12:05

have you used any deep learning techniques in zips and why are you so great?

Dan Szymborski

12:06

I use unsupervised learning in awards model and my still experimental Hall model, but I mostly use more traditional techniques with ZiPS itself.

PB Defenders

12:06

Haven't seen even a rumor about Maikel Franco signing with someone. 'sup with that?!

Dan Szymborski

12:06

You have to be a huge believer in his 2020, especially D, for him to have a really interesting market

12:07

I know it's context-dependent, but is there an amount of weight lost by a player that leads you to have concerns about their power remaining the same (i.e. Vladito)? Converse question could also apply for slap hitters adding a ton of mass.

Dan Szymborski

12:07

I don't think I can even merit a rule of thumb for that.

12:08

I've never actually studied reported weight loss deltas like this, because getting up-to-date year-to-year weights is impossible

Fun fact: John Kruk's listed weight on BR is 170.

degrominator

12:08

Do you expect ZIPS to have a higher average projection error than typical due to the smaller sample of games in 2020. Presumably having to rely more on data from 2 years ago increases error bars right?

Dan Szymborski

12:08

I do.

We have less data and less *recent* data

12:09

Plus all the unknown about playing in the midst of a raging pandemic

Jim

12:09

Curious if ZIPS weighs NCAA performance as much as pro, fractionally or not at all?

Dan Szymborski

12:09

It does weigh it, but the adjustment factors are brutal!

Appa Yip Yip

12:09

I was about to make a joke about Teoscar's ZiPS WAR projection then saw his batting line is quite strong and it's the defense that sinks him and was like, yeah. fair. Would his defensive adjustment be less punitive as a DH than a (very) poor RF?

Dan Szymborski

12:09

Yes

12:12

Goes up 0.3 WAR

Scott

12:12

What are the chances Trout ever win a WS ring with the Angels? Feels like his talent has been wasted there.

Dan Szymborski

12:12

Well, if the Angels maintained their current strength for the next ten years, their probability of winning at least one world series is 12.5%

Bring Back Mookie

12:12

Mike Lupica at the Athletic wrote today that Pete Alonso had a better rookie year than Dwight Gooden. That is all.

Dan Szymborski

12:12

That's an odd one

12:13

I assume Lupica's just being analytically odd here rather than analyzing their personal demons during their rookie years?

Ben

12:13

What does ZiPS think of Scott Kazmir's comeback attempt?

Dan Szymborski

12:13

Put it this way: when I gave Jay the VERY speculative ZiPS proj for Kazmir, his reaction was, IIRC, "Oof"

12:13

ZIPS currently projects Juan Soto 1 point behind Trout in wOBA for 2021. Do you think this year will be Trout's last time projected to have the best bat in the game?

Dan Szymborski

12:14

Could be! I did an article about this last year and the basic contours haven't changed that much

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/mike-trouts-inevitable-decline/

though that was overall WAR

12:15

for batting only, I believe Soto has a higher projected OPS+ than Trout for 2022

SteveO

12:15

Do you realize that we are only five weeks from your being able to answer "April"?!?!? First time in two years, woohoo!

Dan Szymborski

12:15

DON'T JINX IT

Chris

12:15

Where do you stand on mlb teams and service time?

Dan Szymborski

12:15

They do need a fairer system or least, an explicit requirement in the CBA beyond players having to rely on a bad faith case

12:16

My personal favorite would be a system in which when a player hits six-year, MLB free agency, his team has to "repay" him from the service time fragment, pro-rated to his salary.

12:17

So the Cubs would have to either release Bryant before the season or commit to paying him 171/180th of his salary on top of his salary

TooDamnTall

12:17

Hey Dan, a pleasure as somewhat frequently. I've noticed that when ZIPS comes out, the weather often turns cold. I know correlation is not causation, but where there's smoke there's fire.

Dan Szymborski

12:18

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