JotCast | Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat

Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 2/16/23

Dan Szymborski

12:02

SzymChat is *back* now that I'm firmly in the domain of the living.

Greg

12:02

As a Braves fan with very little to complain about, I’ve thought of something that is driving me nuts. Why is Ozzie Albies continuing to switch hit? He’s bad left handed and much better right handed. Are players stubborn about this? Do front offices not suggest this? I feel like I’m missing something obvious because it seems like such a no brainer.

Dan Szymborski

12:02

Players tend to be stubborn about dropping pinch-hitting.

12:03

And with Albies, he isn't *so* bad left-handed that the issue is likely to be forced.

12:04

I mean, he's still at around a .750 OPS left-handed

Keefths

12:04

Dan !!! Can you please please please tell us when Prospect Week is ?!??!
We don't know how much longer we can last without it !!

Dan Szymborski

12:04

Next week, I believe.

Cole

12:04

How does ZiPS perform H2H sims in your model. Does it run through actual 9 inning games for each matchup, or does it generate single game WAR scores for each players and compare to determine a winner?

Dan Szymborski

12:05

For simming entire seasons, I don't find getting too in the weed H2H is all that useful. I just do probability for odds ratio (plus home/road adjustment) based on whatever roster strengths ZiPS has for the teams that year

Farhandrew Zaidman

12:05

What were your major takeaways from Evan Drellich’s book?

Dan Szymborski

12:05

I haven't read it yet!

12:05

Clarke, German or not on roster to replace Montas?

Dan Szymborski

12:05

Pretty sure it's going to be German

Joey Votto

12:05

What uncertainty margins do ZIPS projections typically have?

Dan Szymborski

12:05

Depends what you're talking about

12:06

it's a more complex q than what is your shoe size!

quinn

12:06

Dan, what is the correct ratio of bacon to lettuce to tomato on a BLT?

Dan Szymborski

12:06

Fill up a sandwich with as much bacon as it will hold. Then take out only enough bacon to put in a slice of tomato and/or a lettuce leaf.

Keefths

12:07

How worried should we be about Aaron Ashby ?

Dan Szymborski

12:07

Some, but I wouldn't panic unless something more substantial is announced.

Allan

12:07

If baseball were played with 27 consecutive outs instead of 3, which types of players would become more/less valuable?

Dan Szymborski

12:07

I would imagine ball in play people would be because you'll have a much higher percentage of at-bats with runners on base

Oddball Herrara

12:07

Is the Bally bankruptcy the first sign of the long predicted (by yours truly at least) burst of the MLB broadcast $ bubble?

Dan Szymborski

12:07

I don't think it's going to be a massive burst, but there will be some adjustment.

Old Prospector

12:07

You’ve noted before that ZiPS does not attempt to project playing time. I don’t think I’ve ever heard you say why that is the case though. Why is that?

Dan Szymborski

12:08

A hammer is for nails, not for cleaning glass.

ZiPS *does* actually do a pretty good job if you're *only* looking at established players

12:09

Since age, history, position, specific injury info, is a good predictor

But ZiPS doesn't do "team decisions." I don't see the use of a projection system that decides when the Cubs will start using Matt Mervis.

12:10

Now, I have to do that for seasons, but my philosophy is as little human intervention as possible.

And frankly, I'm more interesting in using a projection system to estimate how good, say, Miles Mastrobuoni *would* be rather than using a projection system to estimate how much the Cubs like Mastrobuoni.

12:11

.000/.000/.000 in 0 PA conveys no useful information in the context of a projection system

The 6ix

12:11

Will ZiPS DC be adjusted to account for recent injuries and trades? Thinking Montas and AJ Puk etc.

Dan Szymborski

12:11

ZiPS DC is automatically adjusted by the depth charts

Torre adore

12:11

Ranger Kyle Cody seems to have been left out of the ZIPS projections both on the team page and his player page.

Dan Szymborski

12:11

Yeah, he's on the to do list for the next submission

tnst3b

12:11

The ZiPS projections for Masataka Yoshida and Zoilo Almonte are awfully similar...

Dan Szymborski

12:11

Yeah, that's an error. Zoilo Almonte shouldn't actually have a projection

12:12

I've already submitted that to be fixed.

12:13

Basically, I first projected Yoshida before an MLBAM ID was ready and with changes to how it was mapped, I didn't see it assigned him the last MLBAM ID for a name alphabetically for a player projected over the last five years (Zoilo Almonte). So there were two Yoshida projections, one with Almonte's MLBAM ID and one with Yoshida's.

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