JotCast | Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat

Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 2/1/24

Dan Szymborski

12:03

It's a chat!

The person who asks the lunch question

12:03

What's for lunch?

Dan Szymborski

12:03

Egg salad sandwich

Daniel

12:04

What kind of year do you expect from Corbin Burnes? Will we ever see a year from him again like his 2021?

Dan Szymborski

12:05

That's not the *average* result, but the chance is certainly there

I do think he's slightly down from his highest peak

Joe

12:07

In terms of a fastballs vertical approach angle, a “flat” angle correlates to more whiffs/“ride”. Doesn’t this seem counterintuitive with the historical use of a “flat” fastball?

Dan Szymborski

12:07

Unfortunately, the vernacular changes a bit over the years

So it's hard to really test conventional wisdom in this manner

Charming Cads

12:08

I'm a little worried about M. Yoshida being productive this year in a Fangraphs points league, although the projection systems seem to think he'll be better than last year. Is my worry misplaced?

Dan Szymborski

12:09

I'm still hopeful. The MLB season is a bit longer and he was solid most of the year. Some of the bad projection is defense

Bendix

12:12

Luzardo to Baltimore what makes it happen?

Dan Szymborski

12:12

I'm not sure there's a match here. The Marlins are almost certainly asking for a ton

12:13

And until new ownership eventually takes over (and assuming they're superior), it'll be a while before the front office is more willing to trade excellent prospects. As it is now, there's basically no replacement of guys they trade from free agency

Eh?

12:13

When can we expect the Top 100 Zips prospects list?

Dan Szymborski

12:13

Same week as the rest of top 100 stuff!

12:14

I believe it's the week after super bowl

Eh?

12:15

Have you ever used "Zips" in place of cursing? For example, "I would have gotten away with it if it weren't for you Zips-ing kids!"

Dan Szymborski

12:15

I have not.

I actually curse quite a lot in private

War2D2

12:15

I’ll ask you the same Q I asked Eno in a chat last week: if you were in Jed’s position, what would your next step be? The Cubs seem “good” but definitely missing a couple pieces. Would you sign Bellinger? Chapman? Maybe Montgomery? Try to trade for Bregman? (Fwiw Eno thought Chapman was the obvious fit)

Dan Szymborski

12:15

I think I'd go for Montgomery

or try to trade for Luzardo myself

Birdland

12:15

For the first time ever I am thrilled that a billionaire has purchased something that I love. Hallelujah! No questions, just over the moon that my team owner might be someone who will try to win.

BEEDLE

12:15

Who do you give the cubs 5th starter spot to? Wicks, Assad, Wesneski, Smyly, other?

Dan Szymborski

12:17

I think Wesneski first

I want to see Wicks get a little better punching out batters and I'd be open to using him in relief

I thinK Wesneski has more of a ceiling as a starter than Assad

12:18

And I think you want some urgency because of the likely of Horton coming up behind him in the not too distant future

Birdland

12:18

Actually I do have questions! Can ZiPS tell us what would be fair contract extensions for all the young O's? I want to know what to dream about.

Dan Szymborski

12:18

Hey, I can't give away future articles in chat!

Takao

12:18

Hey Dan, I know you've been taking a beating and some harassment from Reds fans, and I just wanted to say that as a Reds fan I appreciate all the work you do. It's frustrating that people don't understand the difference between a projection system + an opinion on money spent/roster building vs. "hating on" a team.

That said, I'm slamming the over on ZIPS projections for Elly.

Dan Szymborski

12:19

Oh, fans of every team are mad at me sometime or another

You think Braves fans love me after the Acuna and team projections?

You should see what they said to me when I panned the Kemp trade

12:21

One of my favorites of that era was this dude

who spent a ton of time ripping me for not knowing, in June 2016, about a trade that happened, in July 2016.