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Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 12/4/25

Dan Szymborski

12:03

And awaaaaay we go

or, heeeeere we go

Lowetide

12:04

I noticed a 'Wilbur Wood' comp on the Marlins and am now looking forward to Robby Snelling's career. How often does the Wood comp show up on these lists? He was unique.

Dan Szymborski

12:04

Not often, I don't think

12:04

Does Zips not care about optimal launch? Trying to figure out why it loves Michael Harris so much

Dan Szymborski

12:05

ZiPS does, but Harris is also still quite young, and *should* have higher BABIPs

War2D2

12:05

Hi Dan! What kind of contract does ZiPS see Imai getting? I’ve read everything from $135m to $200m. I’d love the Cubs to sign him, but sadly don’t see them even trying at either price.

Dan Szymborski

12:07

I don't have it on hand, but definitely lower. ZiPS does not like any of the current NPB pitchers as much as it liked Yamamoto, Imanaga, or Sasaki

Guest

12:07

im mentioning ZiPs in a research paper and wondering what I should cite for it

Dan Szymborski

12:07

Depends on the context, but just my name and the name of the model is probably enough?

Guest

12:07

If you're the Mets, would you prefer to trade for Pablo Lopez or Joe Ryan? Lopez will likely cost less in prospect capital and Twins might want to shed more payroll as well... curious to hear your thoughts!

Dan Szymborski

12:08

Mets advantage is money, so I thinkit makes sense to leverage it. I think Lopez is slightly higher upside anyway

War2D2

12:08

Food talk: My dad’s from LA, my grandma and cousins lived their whole lives there, I lived there for a year in the 90s in addition to bi-yearly visits throughout my childhood, my brother has lived there for the last 20 years, and for my entire family the official sandwich of LA is the pastrami from The Hat. I had no clue that the French dip was even a thing until you used it as a metaphor in a playoff article. I’m not saying you’re necessarily wrong, but given my LA bona fides I was dumbfounded when I read that.

Dan Szymborski

12:09

But I swear that I always associated french dip with LA! And double-checking, there was a LOT of talk about LA french dips

LA's a pretty big place, so there's more than one thing

diddem

12:09

David Peterson's Zips forecast is really good. Why?:

Dan Szymborski

12:09

Can't really say offhand!

12:10

(I'm doing this from a place that I don't have ZiPS)

Potato

12:10

Yankees and Red Sox currently looking up at the Jays, right? (Not just geographically)

Dan Szymborski

12:10

Probably, but only by a little

matt w

12:10

Is the +5 Def projection for Konnor Griffin +5 for a shortstop? If so, isn't that pretty high for someone many people evaluate as a future outfielder? And can you send a request to the baseball gods to please let us have this?

Dan Szymborski

12:10

It is as a shortstop. The baseball gods don't listen to me, however

I am the apple

12:10

How does ZiPS handle a comp who hasn’t finished playing?

Dan Szymborski

12:11

ZiPS will use the information for as long as it has the information, and then move towards the cohort when it doesn't

Old No. 7

12:11

Are you a Winter Olympics guy? Comp for Lindsey Vonn in MLB?

Dan Szymborski

12:11

I enjoy the winter olympics, but not in any analytical way. It's more surface level enjoyment, so I can't claim to have much to offer for the question

12:12

but I do like watching the complete events.

on streaming

12:13

I never really watch network coverage of Olympics - I'm interest in the competitions, not so much the people, and there's too much of an American focus

We were one of the families that actually got that Olympics Triplecast PPV for Barcelona in 1992

Jobo

12:13

Could a person "project" third-base coach send/success rates for an experienced coach based on a projected roster and schedule?

Dan Szymborski

12:14

I guess it's possible, but it's not something I've done or really, honeslty, given much thought to

Lowetide

12:14

The Padres have zero starting pitching. Will they run with Mason Miller as a starter, or invite the world's sore arms (like the 1987 Montreal Expos) and hope to find Dennis Martinez and Pascual Perez?

Dan Szymborski

12:14

I assume they're going to basically HAVE to take some low-cost fliers and roll the dice

Gerard

12:14

Do you see the orioles more likely signing an Imai, King, Suarez, Valdez, or trading for a top of rotation pitcher? Or perhaps both?

Dan Szymborski

12:14

I think a trade is more likely, though I'm more bullish on the O's actually spending money than I was a few months ago

Reep

12:14

So Miami will be a serious Wild Card threat when the ink dries on the Schwarber and Alonso contracts?

Dan Szymborski

12:14

I think they'll still be on the fringe.

12:15

Unless you're assuming that they GET Schwarber and Alonso

Ral Cipken

12:15

Is zips an Andy Pages believer or does it think he punched above his weight class this year?

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