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Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 12/14/15
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AvatarDan Szymborski
11:58
OMG IT STARTED EARLIER, I"M MURDERING THAT SIMPERING JACKANINNY CISTULLI WITH HIS OWN FISTS
OK, got that out of the way
Jose
11:58
How does your PC deal with A-Rod?
AvatarDan Szymborski
11:59
Same way it deals with other players. Not quite sure what you mean here.
12:00
If you mean the missed year and the injuries, ZiPS has historical knowledge of what missed years and various injuries (very generalized) mean to future performance. If the steroids, there's still not much in the way of evidence that it has any predictive value for future play.
The Dude
12:00
As a Cubs fan, should I be worried about Theo's lackluster record of FA signings?
AvatarDan Szymborski
12:00
You should worry about a signing if it looks bad objectively and not worry about ones that look good objectively.
Logan
12:00
Do you see a matchup between the Braves and the Indians or the Pirates on some of their trade pieces?
AvatarDan Szymborski
12:00
Freeman in Pittsburgh would be fun, but I don't know if the Pirates would pay the iron price.
J
12:01
What are your thoughts about the Braves rebuilding so far? Obviously this last D-back trade helps a ton, but how does this compare to the current Phillies rebuilding?
AvatarDan Szymborski
12:01
The Braves rebuilding will go quicker, not because the post-Amaro Phillies are stupid, but because the Braves realized the necessity years before the Phillies did. The Phillies started it pretty much when there were only a few players with any value left.]
The Dude
12:01
How bullish is ZiPS on Mark Appel?
AvatarDan Szymborski
12:02
Haven't run Appel yet actually
The Dude
12:02
Which farm system is now better: Braves or Phillies?
AvatarDan Szymborski
12:02
I'd say Braves. It worries me that there are so many upside pitchers tha tmay be nothing, but some of those are nearly inevitable eto work out.
TJ
12:02
Inciarte for Soler ?
AvatarDan Szymborski
12:02
Meh
Timothy
12:03
How would you rank the young shortstops on who you would want on your team? I'd go correa bogaerts russell seager lindor
AvatarDan Szymborski
12:03
I was very happy to see Bogaerts season, but I'd rank him lower and Lindor higher
mtsw
12:03
Am I the only one who thinks these huge contracts (Heyward, Stanton etc) with early opt-outs are insane? The real danger in any big contract is that a catastrophic injury or decline in performance renders it dead money. The early opt-outs just lock in the downside risk but mitigate much of the upside risk (long-term control of an excellent player).
AvatarDan Szymborski
12:04
That's only really the case if players won't take the opt-out in suboptimal situations for them. That mitigates the danger since it makes some scenarios in which the player bails out the team.
UGLYFRANK
12:05
If I am interested in stats and forecasting, what should I major in?
AvatarDan Szymborski
12:05
Well, mathematics or some related discipline. If you want to work for a team, I'd recommend programming.
mtsw
12:06
Did the Orioles ever really WANT to sign Chris Davis? Their entire conduct has been to demonstrate to the fans that they're trying but they've never seemed particularly interested in actually getting a deal done. Is Duquette's master plan to "miss" on Davis and then do a more sensible signing and use the extra cash to extend Machado?
AvatarDan Szymborski
12:06
Leaving a 7/150 deal on the table for awhile for a player they don't really want to re-sign would be odd behavior. I think they want Davis, but they don't want him at an unlimited price, which is reasonable.
12:07
A bigger offer would end up being in Heyward territory and giving Chris Davis a Jason heyward offer is a really stupid thin gto do
mtsw
12:07
Trump is elected President and appoints you as chief baseball advisor. In order to "make baseball great again" he wants to dramatically alter field dimensions. He orders you to either move all fences in 50 feet or out 50 feet. Which insane decision would you go with to least damage the game of baseball?
AvatarDan Szymborski
12:08
Weird question, but I'll go with it. Probably move out and then I'd liven the ball.
Bork
12:08
Where does Chris Davis sign and for how much? Someone will probably offer him the $150m he originally got, no?
AvatarDan Szymborski
12:08
I have no idea now.
Justin
12:08
Is it reasonable to think that the Ray Searage School of Pitching helps new acquisitions beat projections? Or am I confirmation bias-ing myself?
AvatarDan Szymborski
12:08
I think there's reason to believe, but don't get too excited.
The Dude
12:08
The Cubs look incredible on paper for 2016. The Nationals looked incredible on paper for 2015. Could the Cubs end up falling similarly to the Nationals?
AvatarDan Szymborski
12:09
Anything can happen.
Derek in Little Rock
12:09
What is the 2016 ZIPS projection for Barry Lamar Bonds's age 51 season?
AvatarDan Szymborski
12:09
I will not run a Barry Bonds projection. At this point, a projection system would have no useful information to offer.
Note that I'm saving the off-topics for the lightning round.
Owen S.
12:10
If you are Heyward, and maximizing $ is your only concern, do you take the Cubs deal or a 10 year $230M (made up contract) deal instead?
AvatarDan Szymborski
12:10
I'd take the 10-year, but pro athletes are known for having confidcne in their skills, so Heyward's calculations are going to be different.
Todd
12:10
Don't the Indians has a strong window to compete now with their starting pitching? Do you think a trade for Todd Frazier (and maybe Jay Bruce) could be structured around Clint Frazier and Brad Zimmer (among others, perhaps). If so, imagine if the Indians also acquired either Chris Carter or Alvarez for DH/to spell 1B. I think a lineup like that, with Cleveland's strong SP could win a lot of ballgames, don't you? Almost like a mix between the 2015 Blue Jays and Astros, but with better starting pitching.
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