JotCast | Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat

Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 12/12/19

Dan Szymborski

12:03

It's a-me, Szymio!

Mark6

12:04

When will Jays 2020 ZiPS projections be published?

Dan Szymborski

12:04

At a time I am aware of!

Kiermaier's Piercing Green Eyes

12:04

You know what the Yankee pinstripes always needed? A curvy swoosh advertisement right on the front. Thank you MLB for continuing to advocate for what's best for baseball.

tommy timberlake

12:04

Do you think the Mets are simply adding depth by signing both Porcello and Wacha, or could it be a precursor to a trade involving Syndergaard, Stroman or Matz?

Dan Szymborski

12:04

Who knows with the Mets. I think it's more likely a trade would happen in the spring than now.

12:05

And someone's sure to get injured. But who knows what the Mets are doing.

Stroman came outta nowhere.

Justin

12:05

Is Brandon Nimmo better than Starling Marte?

Dan Szymborski

12:05

I think he can be, but he's riskier than Marte and on-average, Marte's probably a bit better.

Jackson

12:05

There’s no way Arenado gets moved right? Rockies are gonna want elite talent and he already costs 7/234, don’t see how any deal would work out

Dan Szymborski

12:06

Well, Rockies REALLY like relief pitchers...

Andrew

12:06

Good Morning/Afternoon,

Harry

12:07

Who’s playing 3B for the Braves this year? Donaldson likely pricing himself out of ATL, Cubs asking price for Bryant too high, are we really going to see a Riley/Camargo timeshare (barely platoon because Camargo hits lefties better, too)

Dan Szymborski

12:08

I think they stay in-house if they can't get Donaldson. I'm not sure it's a position that'll be so dire that they're going to jupm at making a trade. The rest of the 3B available in free agency (Frazier, Shaw, Asdrubal, Franco, etc.) just arne't obviously appealing.

12:08

Are the ZIPS projections rolling out on M-W-F, and is there an order determined (sorry if I missed this info somewhere)?

Dan Szymborski

12:08

They're likely going T-T as the last elegies roll out and then daily.

There is a predetermined random order. But it is my secret!

Ari

12:08

Hypothetical Trade Rewind: Luis Urias, Eric Laurer, Austin Allen and compensatory round A draft pick for Jose Ramirez?

Dan Szymborski

12:09

I'm not actually sure the Indians do that. Even with the lousy season, I think the Indians still highly, highly value J-Ram

James

12:09

What type of package will it take for the angels to get 1 year of Kluber coming off an injured year, assuming they pay the whole $17.5 million he's owed

Dan Szymborski

12:09

I'm not sure the Indians will be willing to part with Kluber for an amount proportional to the risk that 2019 has caused.

Bring Back Jeff

12:09

Dan, when do you think the Red Sox will make some moves? Now that the biggest names are out of the way, is it time to strike for a price deal?

Dan Szymborski

12:10

They'll probably end up with Mitch Moreland like they do every year.

What they do depends on how strict the goal to get under luxury tax is and what money they can move

Harry

12:11

Cubs want Fried+ from ATL for Bryant, which is ludicrous. Does Kyle Wright, Bryce Wilson, Alex Jackson, and Greyson Jenista get it done?

Dan Szymborski

12:11

I think that *would* get it done.

12:12

But they might want to swap in Contreras since they can save money by having the Contrerari share jerseys

12:13

Now, the rumor is the Cubs want an *absurd* package, but I'm not sure how absurd they actually will require, as opposed to a negotiation position.

Matt

12:13

Dan, I have finally remembered your chat. This whole Thursday thing has really messed me up.

12:13

Why do you think ZIPS is down on the Rendon contract? He's been 6+ WAR each of the past 3 years, and it says he'll put up 4.4 in 2020 (compared to 5.5 for Steamer).

Dan Szymborski

12:13

I should note I addressed two of these issues.

Rendon loses a couple of runs with multiple defensive sources

in ZiPS vs. Steamer

12:14

And another 100 PA difference

12:16

the PA difference alone closes 2/3 of the gap

ZiPS only projected like five guys over 30 to have an over/under over 600 PA.

Maximum Salad Dressing

12:17