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Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 11/29/17
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AvatarDan Szymborski
2:01
It begins.
The Average Sports Fan
2:02
Is Piscotty a real trade piece?  Does his contract help or hurt?
AvatarDan Szymborski
2:02
After his 2017, it probably hurts a bit.  I don't think he's a real trade piece at this moment.
Nate
2:02
Give us a hypothetical return if the Giants trade Bumgarner this winter, pretty please?
AvatarDan Szymborski
2:03
Given two years, I think he'd land a top 20 prospect and a second somewhere in the top 100 and some lotto tickets.
Ubaldo Jimenez
2:03
Should the Orioles resign me to a 100 million dollar contract?
AvatarDan Szymborski
2:03
No, but as an Oriole fan, I endorse one of the Red Sox, Blue Jays, Rays, or Yankees doing so.
Larry Biggersby
2:04
Steamer and Depth are nearly identical on Byron Buxton (PAs aside) - do you think Zips will believe?
AvatarDan Szymborski
2:04
Projecting projections is a little too Inception for me.
Andrew
2:04
I just want to put this out there, Mike Moustakas and Luis Valbuena are incredibly similar players, both by numbers and profile. Valbuena is making 7.5 mil a year
AvatarDan Szymborski
2:04
I prefer Moustakas, but it's not an enormous amount
Andrew
2:04
so I wouldn’t pay Moose more than 10 mil a year.
Vic Romano
2:04
How many AB's do you think Braun will get this year?  Back up to the 500's, or does his increasingly old and injured body fail him even more in 2018?
AvatarDan Szymborski
2:04
Probably 400-500.  There has obvious risk.
Dimpledore
2:05
If I wanted to conduct a statistical witch hunt of probable PED users through time, do we know enough about a) causes of intra-individual variation generally (pre-PED era) or b) how PEDs influence performance (for position players and pitchers, for position players with natural power/batspeed and those without, etc)?
AvatarDan Szymborski
2:05
No and no.
I have spent *years* trying to find some use of steroids, whether it's projeting players or a pattern of exceeding performance sometime before the best and falling off after, for years or chunks of careers or entire careers.
2:06
I cannot come up with a single statistical pattern of performance against expectation that singles out players that have been suspended for a PED.
CamdenWarehouse
2:06
Dan's actually chatting during the day for the first time in two months.  Yay!
too bad I have to go to a meeting
AvatarDan Szymborski
2:06
Not my fault you have a job and like paying for goods and services.
Slapshot
2:06
Welcome back!  Did Cistulli make you chat today in exchange for all the ZiPS projection articles he's publishing?
AvatarDan Szymborski
2:06
Nah, this is usually where I start chats back up after the postseason chaos.
CamdenWarehouse
2:06
ZiPS obviously doesn't believe that Robert Stephenson found himself after his demotion.  Do you agree or could he actually turn into the pitcher he was once thought to be?
AvatarDan Szymborski
2:06
Pitchers are tricky.  WHY ARE YOU NOT AT YOUR MEETING YOU ARE FIRED
-
ECinDC
2:06
How much longer can Scherzer keep it up? Going on his age 33 season, but just had his best ever. Will he be worth his contract?
AvatarDan Szymborski
2:07
I think so.  Unti you get to the late 30s, ptichers don't really age, they break.
Mark
2:07
Is David Dahl going to get a good projection this year, or does last years missed season hurt him?
AvatarDan Szymborski
2:07
Ok guys:  NO ZIPS META PROJECTIONATING
GP
2:07
How does ZiPS account for pitchers that haven't been assigned to rotation vs. bullpen? Does it automatically assume the same pitcher will strike out more batters out of the bullpen, for example?
AvatarDan Szymborski
2:08
ZiPS uses historical usage, very heavily weighting the most recent season for usage issues.  Unless I tell it differently (I can instruct 100% rotation or 100% bullpen)
Dimpledore
2:08
How common is it that players have a single season power spike (a home run peak) that is 2 standard deviations greater than their career average (e.g. Boggs' 24 in 1987; Brady Anderson's 50 in 1996; Ellsbury's 32 in 2011)?  Is there typically an easy explanation?
AvatarDan Szymborski
2:08
Comes up about as often as you'd expect from the degree of outlier!
Hannah Hochevar
2:09
Was surprised to see Fister sign for so little given the options out there. Does it imply extra injury concern or just the usual old people injury concern?
AvatarDan Szymborski
2:09
It's been a few years since he was both healthy AND good for a whole season
2:10
Not a lot of biters for a longer-term deal and he does hvae some significant incentive options
Ray Liotta as Shoeless Joe
2:10
What player, if traded to [insert favorite team] at the trade deadline and and guaranteed to only play for your team through the end of the season, would you be most inclined to buy a jersey? Assume an incredible story out of the postseason run, if not a World Series title.
AvatarDan Szymborski
2:10
I mostly buy jerseys based on the player and not specifically because they're Orioles.
2:11
I also occasionally buy jerseys to troll, like my Rick Wise Cardinals jersey.
sigh
2:11
Please breath some life into the dark and soul crushing abyss that has been this offseason.  I'm usually so excited to sit by the stove.
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