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Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 11/13/25

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Dan Szymborski

12:00

And awaaaaay we go!

Ryan

12:00

After writing your Phillies report, do you see them as a fit for Jarren Duran? If not them, who?

Dan Szymborski

12:01

If they want him and have enough to tempt the Red Sox, I think most teams could fit in Duran's skillset

12:02

I have to admit, I'm still not sure how much of the trade buzz is smoke and not fire, even if it makes sense due to the logjam

The person who asks the lunch question

12:02

Is it a lunch day? What's for lunch, if so?

Dan Szymborski

12:02

No lunch today

War2D2

12:02

What were your feelings on the NL Cy Young? I heard some grumbling that Sanchez had a more difficult schedule and should have at least garnered a couple 1st place votes.

Dan Szymborski

12:03

I'm a bit ambivalent as I think it was pretty close, closer than the first palce vote tallies. I haven't really dug into WHO I think is the better candidate though.

Mike

12:03

Of these three, who will still be on the Twins when the season starts... Lopez, Ryan, Buxton? Thanks.

Dan Szymborski

12:03

I actually think they will all be

Sam

12:03

Woohoo for ZiPS season! Regarding the Phillies projections - the outfield seems weak (per usual unfortunately). What would your ideal and realistic outfield look like for 2026? (i.e., resigning Bader for CF and trying to find a right fielder)

Dan Szymborski

12:04

I expect them to come to terms with Schwarber in the end and search for a fill-in candidate similar to what they did with Kepler

One uncertainty is I just don't have a feel for how THEY feel about Castellanos

Dan

12:05

How do you see Sonny Gray faring next year (and in 27 if his option is exercised)? Can he go toe-to-toe with the Cease/Valdez/Suarez cohort for a year or two?

Dan Szymborski

12:06

He'd do decently, but it would likely be short term; remember, 2028 is his age *38* season.

12:07

If he's a free agent after next season opting out after Cards exercises option, he'll probably get an extra year at that salary, not a big salary bump

Mike

12:07

Wow. Is that the right thing for the Twins?

Dan Szymborski

12:08

Probably not. Once you take a heel turn, it's best not to leave it half done.

wheelhouse

12:08

does zips see tucker as being as likely to live up to the contract he's projected to get as other recent #1 free agents? i know he's great but i just see this 30th-percentile outcome where he's either a poor defensive RF or a 1B/DH with half the contract left to go

Dan Szymborski

12:08

I do not. ZiPS does not either, though I don't always agree with ZiPS

War2D2

12:09

What does ZiPS think of Horton going forward? The projections on FG right now are…not good, to say the least. Having watched almost every start of his I personally feel like he’s probably better than a 1.4 WAR player, given how well he controls the zone. I think he has the possibility to be a pretty good #3, sort of another Taillon (for a comp in his own rotation). I realize even that prediction will disappoint most Cubs fans!

Dan Szymborski

12:09

ZiPS likes him quite a bit more than Steamer does

Lars

12:10

Why do MLB players foul so many more balls off themselves than, say, high schoolers? Way more inside pitches? So much more movement?

Dan Szymborski

12:10

I think there's a lot of truth to this. And a major leaguer is much more competent at connecting with a shitty inside pitch they shouldn't have swung at

matt w

12:11

Have you already started thinking about the special typeface you will use for Skenes in the Pirates projections? Also, how are the cats?

Dan Szymborski

12:11

I've already thought about how to be obnoxious along these lines. But you'll have to wait and see if I am

12:13

Unfortunately, Mercutio crashed a few weeks ago with acute kidney failure, which basically fast-forwarded him from his early stage chronic kidney disease to end stage. He basically went from normal to unable to walk in about five hours and when I brought him to the vet, his temperature was down to 90 degrees. There was no choice what the humane thing to do was (he was 17)

Constantine is the one who most noticed he's gone; Constantine used to fetch him for dinner and has been meowing a bit in Merc's favorite spots. The other two are fine.

Guest

12:13

Sorry if I glossed over any prior explanation, but has there been any changes to the zips system that effected this years projections?

Dan Szymborski

12:14

Nothing super different!

There's an intro for the ZiPS launch!

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-2026-zips-projections-are-almost-here/

Devil Ray Jay Johnson

12:14

Did you have an awards vote this year? If so, what was your general process?

Dan Szymborski

12:14

NL ROY, and I did a piece on it too! https://blogs.fangraphs.com/my-2025-national-league-rookie-of-the-year...

12:15

Haven't really thought about my Hall ballot in specifics yet; they're supposed to be mailed out from Cooperstown this coming Monday

TameImp

12:15

Is it safe to say that if Fairbanks had no takers at $11mm then Devin Williams probably isn't worth $22mm for one year?

Dan Szymborski

12:16

I'd definitely be surprised if Williams got that

Chef Boyardee is here

12:16

Any weird dreams lately?

Dan Szymborski

12:16

Nothing too odd really

Tiger Fan

12:16

Hey Dan, broad FG question here: are positional adjustments displayed publicly, and if so, where? I was wondering if 2B or 3B was higher. It feels like 3B defense is publicly considered more important than 2B, even though a 2B has a lot more ground to cover. Thanks!

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