JotCast | Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat

Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 1/9/25

Dan Szymborski

12:00

Let's start the madness. I mean chat.

Egg Man

12:00

New team today ? Still 10 to go.

Dan Szymborski

12:01

Blue Jays tomorrow. I was travelling back through snow and then had to dig out my driveway and my mom's driveway. Measured nine inches on my back lawn.

David Stearns

12:01

Mets sign Alonso, Winker, Scott and Maton are they the nl east favorites?

Dan Szymborski

12:02

I think it'd be close

But on the no side

wheelhouse

12:02

what's your read on ke'bryan hayes at this point? would the pirates move him? is there still the upside there that teams would be interested?

Dan Szymborski

12:04

Assuming the back problems don't continue to be an issue -- not a given -- I think he'll be an averageish 3B, above-average defensively + middling offense

I've always liked Hayes as a player, but people got WAY too excited about his crazy month as a rookie

Barfs

12:05

of the two SDP FA’s (Kim, Profar), who should the Braves sign?

Dan Szymborski

12:05

While these answers change depending on price, I'd rather have Kim

Frosty

12:05

My apologies if you've already shared this, but do you have 2025 projections for Sasaki?

Dan Szymborski

12:05

Hoarding that for when he signs!

Ben VV

12:05

What are some top players to keep eye on during spring that could be breakout players.

Dan Szymborski

12:05

Similarly, I do pieces on this in the spring!

Pope Formosus

12:06

What are ZiPs 1st and 99th percentile wins totals for the White Sox this year?

Dan Szymborski

12:06

I don't do the FULL suite until we get closer to the season. I guarantee they'll both be brutal though

Ben VV

12:06

What will Brewers do at 3B this year?

Dan Szymborski

12:06

I think they'll just slap in whatever unsigned veteran in three weeks will take a cheap one year deal

12:07

I dunno, a Yoan Moncada pillow deal?

(I have no specific information they have even talked)

Tacoby Bellsbury

12:09

What remaining free agent, non-Roki Sasaki division, do you think will be the best bargain for his new team next season?

Dan Szymborski

12:10

Maybe Pivetta? Flaherty?

Slew

12:10

My favorite team hasn’t had its ZiPS published yet. Why do you hate them? [Insert various pissing and moaning]

Dan Szymborski

12:11

It's something you did. Reflect on your sins and repent or your team will be even later next year.

John

12:11

Do you think Alonso gets more than $100 million?

Dan Szymborski

12:11

No, I think he gets a Bellinger/Chapman-like deal from last winter

Curious fan

12:11

Kumar rocker has a pretty nifty steamer projection for this upcoming season. Do you think he makes the rotation on opening day? What are your expectations for him this season?

Dan Szymborski

12:11

I think Rangers will be cautious, but he'll get into the rotation at some point

Harry

12:11

Which team do you think will exceed their ZIPS projections the most, and which team is most likely to fall short of theirs?

Dan Szymborski

12:11

Ask me in March!

Guest

12:12

Jose Ramirez had another fantastic year last year, but is certainly showing some signs of aging. Generally speaking, what are your expectations for him in the 4 years remaining on his contract?

Dan Szymborski

12:12

He'll be fine; he's got a long way to fall

There's a difference between me being in worse shape next year and The Rock being in worse shape next year

Idiotic Failson

12:12

Did the Yankees 'replace' the value of Juan Soto in aggregate? And - am I correct in assuming that because of the LT a guy like Bregman at 110% of his contract actually doesn't provide as much value as a much lower end signing like Polanco?

Dan Szymborski

12:13

Replacing in aggregate is always a risky thing

err

a messy thing

Because while there's a downside of not putting all your eggs in one basket, spreading out a bunch of wins across multiple positions has much lower upside

12:14

and I'm not sure the Yankees were weak enough in those spots for it to be the most efficient things to do

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