JotCast | Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat

Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 1/6/22

Zoned

12:01

Who has a better chance to exceed their zips projection in your opinion, Enrique Hernandez or DJ Lemahieu?

Dan Szymborski

12:01

Probably DJ as ZiPS is pretty bullish on Kiké

Oh, and hello, and welcome to 2022!

BlueJayMatt

12:01

How does ZiPS see Matt Chapman's offense next year? Is he a target for Toronto to fill the 3B hole?

Dan Szymborski

12:02

Cheating to try and see the projection early!

Dalton Wilcox

12:02

How does ZiPs like Cubs prospect Richard Gallardo? 90+ above average innings in A ball at 19 with a maybe 55% GB rate and 7-8% BB rate

Dan Szymborski

12:03

Haven't run him yet. Don't like running pitchers below Double-A because the error bars are pure ROFLcopter. I do run them for the Top 100, but I'm not confident enough for a seasonal projection.

Adam Egret

12:04

Where do you get your ideas from?

Dan Szymborski

12:04

Dalton Wilcox

12:04

Thoughts on the Cubs trading for Kim on the Padres?

Dan Szymborski

12:05

I'm not sure it's the best fit, the Cubs should be more interested in outfielders right now

Slapshot

12:05

Happy New Year, Dan! Given Tatis and Ohtani got pretty similar total WAR projections in ZiPS, it got me to wondering - if they wound up with a tied WAR at the end of 2022, which player is more valuable? Tatis given the overwhelming offense and playing a premium defensive position? Or Ohtani given that quite a bit of value is derived from pitching?

Dan Szymborski

12:05

If it's tied, it becomes tricky!

And who is more valuable may come down to circumstances of which I dot not know of ahead of time

Cynthia

12:05

Were you surprised to see Tatis Jr.'s WAR projection? Do super young MLBers who are already great improve at a different rate as they age compared to super young MLBers who are average?

Dan Szymborski

12:06

A little since ZiPS isn't usually that aggressive. But given how Tatis has played, it's hard for me to find a real objective reason to talk it down

Chris

12:06

When does the Mets projections come out?

Dan Szymborski

12:07

I guarantee the Mets will be one of the next nine teams to go in ZiPS!

DickWhitman

12:07

I've been following ZiPS projections for 6-7 years now, and it always seems to undershoot Xander Bogaerts' WAR. Excluding the shortened 2020 he has outperformed his preseason projections by more than 5 wins since the beginning of 2017. The offensive projections are always spot on though, which leads me to believe it's something with how D is incorporated, and I know Xander's defense has always been wonky depending on where you look. Is there a difference there or am I imagining things?

Dan Szymborski

12:07

I'd have to dig into the cause which is a little tricky.

You do expect a few players to outperform/underperform regularly just by chance

12:08

It's the kind of thing that's hard to extract, simply because the easy calibration stuff is done.

Year-to-year over/underperformance correlation is just about 0.

12:10

Lemme open ZiPS and get the WAR data v. fWAR

12:12

12:13

(Not only is there no correlation between Year 0 miss and Year 1 miss, there's no correlation between X number of under/overperformance to future ones)

TomBruno23

12:13

Have you ever done a ZIPS for Ray Chapman? Thinking about it as I read The Pitch That Killed.

Dan Szymborski

12:13

I have not. I may do that for a Time Warp

Hopeful Rox Fan

12:14

Is Bill Schmidt a net positive over Bridich just in the fact that he seems to be nicer to deal with?

Dan Szymborski

12:15

While that's possible

He's also farther from being fired than Bridich was last year

Dalton Wilcox

12:15

Will Jo Adell emerge late or just bust?

Dan Szymborski

12:15

I think he was derailed, but I'm still cautiously optimistic

Inaccessible Rail

12:15

It seems to me that every year FG projects the Mets to do OK, and every year they disappoint. Is this just my bias as a disappointed Mets fan, or is this actually happening? If it's actual, is this the opposite of the Rays projection problem, that the Mets don't have enough depth?

Dan Szymborski

12:15

Depends what you mean by FG.

ZiPS and FG use different methodologies

12:16

Like FG had Rays at 82.9 preseason, while ZiPS was at 87.4

12:17

And ZiPS had Mets tied with Braves while FG had Mets 3.5 ahead

12:18

Conversely, ZiPS had Red Sox at 79.3 with FG at 85.0

Inaccessible Rail

12:18