JotCast | Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat

Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 1/20/22

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Dan Szymborski

12:02

The chat is now.

Matt

12:03

ZiPS seems very down on Jo Adell and Brandon Marsh. Is there any hope for them?

Dan Szymborski

12:04

Yes. Adell's projection has already rebounded from the year before! But he still needs to develop.

12:05

As for Marsh, ZiPS is not yet enthralled by his offense

Tyler

12:05

Rangers ZIPS came out today. The rotation is a nothing burger outside of Gray. ZIPS seems to under project innings for Hearn (92), Dunning (109), who are both certain to be in the rotation but has (134) for Folty who isn't even on the team?

Dan Szymborski

12:05

ZiPS goes from history.

12:06

You should not be using it as a predictor of who *will* get playing time

But it does do a decent job with veterans who are guaranteed MLB jobs, simply because people *always* underestimate the chance that a random player will be injured

TomBruno23

12:06

Happy Cheese Lovers Day, White Castle is doing a BOGO on Sloppy Fries, today only. Enjoy.

Dan Szymborski

12:07

My GF had White Castle for the first time when we were driving from Baltimore about two years ago. She was repulsed after tasting it and was shocked that people like them.

Objectively, they're not good, but there's something that makes you crave them sometimes!

KIDZERO

12:07

Dan, your opinion on Rockies Organizational revamp? Sterling Monfort, son of Dick, now Director of Pro Scouting--my take is Tricky Dicky will never sell the Rockies; years more of mediocre Rockies results and Fan frustration, imo.

Dan Szymborski

12:08

The Rockies are at a position where any improvement, they'll have to demonstrate it to me first

I couldn't tell you anythign about Sterling Monfort's ideas, unfortunately. Hopefully there's some rebellion against his father's baseball incompetence!

It's unfortunate that dad named him like the bad guy in an 80s movie.

I think he was a character in Back to School.

Guest

12:09

Dan, what is the status on Marcel Ozuna and Trevor Bauer? Will they be playing this year? Are either subject to suspension before playing?

Dan Szymborski

12:10

Ozuna received a 20-game unpaid suspension around Thanksgiving. But as he was on administrative leave, they counted time served, and he's eligible to play in 2022 immediately.

The Bauer situation is murky and still up in the air.

12:11

I've seen no indication the Braves are going to release Ozuna and eat the money or anything like that.

Jefferson

12:12

What happened to sherten apostel? He was such a Zips darling last year. Does he still have the superstar upside projection?

Dan Szymborski

12:12

He hit very poorly in 2021, unfortunately. Then missed the end with a knee problem

Greg

12:12

You mentioned that fantasy players should use ZiPS DC instead of ZiPS after Ariel's evaluation of projection systems showed ZiPS to be the worst. How do you derive PA/IP projections for ZiPS? When would those playing time projections be useful? Why not just take DC playing time projections into ZiPS?

Dan Szymborski

12:12

I've been telling you guys (well, those that have been around) that ZIPS is not a playing time predictor for 18 years!

12:13

Here's why I don't use DC playing time for projections:

12:15

Wow, thanks for the input, ZiPS!

12:16

Asking a projection system what the Brewers (or any team) intends to do strikes me as a rather pointless use of a projection system.

ZiPS DC makes ZiPS useful for fantasy purposes without direct intervention. ZiPS wasn't primarily designed for fantasy.

x2R

12:17

Hey Dan, first time here!!

How did your love for statistics and data start? And what do you recommend to introduce into, books, etc?

And in baseball matters,What is the most surprising fact you have found? And bold prediction for next season, statistical level?

Dan Szymborski

12:17

I was always good at math as a kid and loved baseball, so it was a natural combo

My grandfather started getting me Baseball Abstracts and then the Elias Baseball Analyst when I was seven, in 1985.

12:18

I used to keep little lists of stats in a composition book

and even made a little dice game when I was 8, with player cards.

12:19

I hadn't figured out how pitcher and batter cards interacted with each other at the age of 8, so you had to flip a coin to see which card you used

I had a tendency to nerd up most of my hobbies.

I would do stuff like figure out damage formulas in NES RPG games

12:20

and I had GI Joes, but each GI Joe had ratings for attack and defense and certain Joes had AOE attacks, and I gave objects in my room different elevation ratings

Jefferson

12:20

Taco chilli is in the slow cooker for dinner tonight. It has meat AND beans. Just try to stop me

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