JotCast | Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat 1/16/25

Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat 1/16/25

Dan Szymborski

11:44

Umm, it seems to have started already, so I'll be back here in 16 minutes.

12:01

OK, NOW we're starting for real!

Guest

12:01

Thx for chats...the Yankees traded for Fernando cruz....how does zips see him performing in 25?

Dan Szymborski

12:02

ZiPS has him at a 3.14 ERA/3.09 FIP, ERA+ 131 with a billion strikeouts in 57 IP in NY

Idiotic Failson

12:03

Why is my favorite team hated by ZIPs?

Dan Szymborski

12:03

Things that you have done.

Keefths

12:03

When is Sasaki going to sign ?

Dan Szymborski

12:03

I think he'll sign by the end of next week

Jack

12:04

How do you see the Phillies outfield looking come opening day? Platoon wise, etc. The Kepler signing doesn’t seem to move the needle for a team whose window is about to slam shut

Dan Szymborski

12:06

I don't think it will be PURE platoon, but I'm confident both Kepler and Marsh will get a disproportionate off time when lefties are in the mound

12:07

They have a lot of right-handed guys who can play the outfield just hanging around, after all

Keefths

12:07

How do you like CES as a rebound candidate ? What’s his upside ?

Dan Szymborski

12:07

I think his upside is similar to Morel's

he did have a year ruined by injury at a key developmental time

12:08

But if everything's back to normal, he could hit for a lot of power with an abysmal OBP

David Stearns

12:08

Favor memory of the legendary Bob Uecker?

Dan Szymborski

12:08

Possibly his various Major League quotes!

12:09

Though do those count as BOB UECKER moments since he was Harry Doyle?

12:10

If Uecker, the tuba incident still makes me smile, even though I obviously wasn't there to see it in person

drhotdog

12:10

is 16 minutes early the new on time?

Dan Szymborski

12:10

No, that was me screwing up the start time

Gram

12:11

What does Zips see in Tyler Fitzgerald? Underlying numbers were pretty bad and seemed to be almost completely held up by massive BABIP.

Dan Szymborski

12:11

ZiPS simply thinks he'

12:12

s more of an BABIP guy thant Steamer does

EZBZ

12:12

How does Gary Sanchez project with the Orioles? How about vs. lefties as a breakout? Assuming that's a bit what he was brought in for...

Dan Szymborski

12:13

217/302/398, 100 OPS+, 0.5 WAR in 300ish PA

12:14

He's never really had much of a platoon split

so ZiPS has the splits fairly even

O's believer

12:14

Kjerstad is an interesting story. Any hope that he can get the playing time to match his zips? Mountcastle and Oneil weren't great against RHP...

Dan Szymborski

12:14

I'm hopeful they mostly go for him

MikeM

12:14

Is there any data to show how hitters recover from labrum tears? With reports that Kim will be out until the May timeframe I wanted to know if we could expect a dip in offensive output or will the shoulder not affect him when he returns.

Dan Szymborski

12:15

I've done shoulders generally, but not labrums specifically

Craig

12:16

A lot of chatter on X about how team friendly the Rooker deal is for the A's... what say the Goddess of ZiPS?

Dan Szymborski

12:16

ZiPS said 5/52.6 and that's *with* a 3.9 WAR projection the first year

12:18

He's a 30 year old DH who hits free agency for the first time for his age 33 season. It's really hard to argue that this is team friendly

Other than the normal cost control stuff

Patrick

12:19

Overall who is a better hitting prospect Jac Caglianone or Jace Laviolette?

Dan Szymborski

12:20

College translation stuff is rudimentary enough that it's hard to say, from a projection standpoint, who is better

They both have excellent names, but Jace Laviolette gets the edge there because I'm a sucker for a protagonist in a southern Gothic horror

Bob

12:20

OOPSY incorporates bat speed data (I think) - does ZiPS? Any plans to try and bring that in?

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