JotCast | Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat

Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 1/12/23

Dan Szymborski

12:01

CONGRATULATIONS, ITS A CHAT!

Cat Latos

12:01

How do my cat friends do?

Dan Szymborski

12:02

Mercutio is on my office couch looking stupid, Justinian left to go upstairs, Constantine is asleep in the living room overlooking the kitchen as he stakes out dinner, and Cassiopeia is in the spoon of the cat tree sleeping last I checked.

Champdo

12:03

What do you think of the players the Tigers got back in the Soto deal?

Dan Szymborski

12:04

Meh.

I think there's a lot to not like about Soto's command, but I rather have a sorta prospect than what are essentially established role players

12:05

I just don't see the upside there from Detroit

Sox

12:05

The Red Sox let Bogey walk. They just lost Story for much of the season. Their rotation is headlined by a bunch of arms who have spent much of the past 3 seasons on the IL and they are a worse team than they were last year when they won 78 games. Is it completely unrealistic to think they struggle to win 70 games in 2023?

Dan Szymborski

12:05

From the projections, the team isn't *that* bad.

12:06

But they're probably in 77-83 territory or so given the srength of the division

Now, it's not completely unrealistic to win fewer than 70 if you're a 77 win team

Bravesfan

12:07

If the Braves decide to hold pat at LF and roll with Ozuna & Rosario, what LFs can you see being available at the trade deadline?

Dan Szymborski

12:07

Ian Happ, depending on what the Cubs do

12:08

Probably Ozuna, Corey Dickerson, someone like Wisdom. Ramon Laureano isn't really though of as a LF but he's an available outfielder likely at the deadline. Kinda depends on who falls off.

Bryan Reynolds too, but he may be traded before the season

The Notorious Dan Mcgrew

12:09

Volpe had a 3.1 war projection in the yankee article but his individual page shows a 1.8 war projection when I dug into it. What's causing the difference?

Dan Szymborski

12:09

ZiPS is not yet on the player pages at all

12:10

And the difference between ZiPS and Steamer is the playing time used

ZiPS has him at 3.1 and 592 Steamer at 1.8 in 289

12:11

But ZiPS isn't a playing time predictor in the context of team decision making

While he ought to get most of those ZiPS PA, a lot will be in the minors

Kris

12:11

What side do you take on a Bobby Witt for Oneil Cruz challenge trade?

Dan Szymborski

12:12

Depends on my team's needs, really

I think a contender ought to prefer Witt, a rebuilding team Cruz

Chelsea

12:12

Can you let the Fangraphs overlords know that THE BAT and THE BAT X need to be added to the Auction Calculator?

Dan Szymborski

12:12

Done

Chelsea

12:12

How much baseball do you watch on a typical day during the season?

Dan Szymborski

12:12

As much as is on. If there's a game on, one of my screens has it

Mister E

12:13

Hi Dan! I saw Ben's title of his latest post and that reminded me of your friend, Voros McCracken.I had forgotten (shame on me) that he pioneered DIPS and also never got an opportunity in baseball research after his stint with the Red Sox. How's he doing these days?

Dan Szymborski

12:13

He's doing well. He *has* done some work for teams, but the exact details are not public.

He kinda drifted away and did some consulting in association football; he was a bit disillusioned after his time with the Red Sox

12:14

They basically gave everyone affiliated with the organization a ring except Voros who got a watch

Passan did a piece on Voros, back when he was still at yahoo

Wander

12:14

Where does Wander settle in over the next 3-5 seasons in the SS pecking order and what does his 80-90% slash line look like?

Dan Szymborski

12:14

This feels like cheating to get the projection early!

Brian Reynold's Trade Partner

12:14

If you were a GM, how much should you discount the future value of prospects in analyzing a trade? How much of that is due to the uncertainty of their future performance?

Dan Szymborski

12:14

I don't think there's a set-in-stone determination you can use.

12:15

It depends on where your team is and how pressing the needs are

Jeans

12:15

Are there ways you think forecasting models can adjust for family success or outcomes in baseball ? Ex. Vlad guerrero, bobby witt, gurriel(s), Naylor(s), Maton(s)

Dan Szymborski

12:15

I'm not sure there's really value there from a projection standpoint

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