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D1Baseball's Weekly Chat: March 9
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Greg K
1:05
What do you make of the Rice-Tx Tech weekend where Rice easily could have taken 2 of 3 on the weekend chasing the Tech starters in the 1st and 2nd inning on Saturday and Sunday?
Kendall Rogers
1:05
Greg -- I give Texas Tech a lot of credit for battling back in the final two games of the series. Fortunately for Tech, the game is nine innings and not two or three. I think it also shows just how little quality pitching depth the Owls have this season. That rebuild is going to take longer than I think everyone previously expected. Texas Tech's weekend rotation arms are still trying to become "pitchers" instead of throwers. That's a process, but they'll get there, IMO.
Adrian
1:07
Are the Tulane Green Wave for real this season or have they benefitted from a soft schedule to this point?
Aaron Fitt
1:07
I think Tulane is a legitimate contender — one of the top two or three teams in the American, and a bona fide regional-caliber club. We knew this team could really hit, but I've been impressed with what they've done on the mound so far this year. The competition will get tougher, but it's obvious that Tulane is much better on the mound than it was a year ago, and I think they've got staying power.
Jeff Davis
1:08
Chris Lanzilli has shown this year to be the best bat in this stacked Wake lineup once again and is now playing a stellar third base and right and left field. What am I missing why this kid is not a first rounder? 5-tool guy with no holes in his game in this years looks.
Aaron Fitt
1:08
I think you're overselling his defense, Jeff. Scouts still view him as a liability on defense wherever he plays -- whether you think that's fair or not. But he'll have plenty of chances to prove to them that he's a capable defender as the season goes along, because he'll get a whole lot of looks from scouts. His bat is certainly formidable, and his power is undeniable.
Mike
1:08
Who's your favorite to win the SEC West? Do you think Ole Miss' good fortunes will continue through conference play?
Kendall Rogers
1:08
Mike -- I think the SEC West is absolutely wide open right now. The Rebels haven't displayed any noticeable holes so far, but with so many young players in a league like that -- you know some ups and downs are coming. With that said, I am very very encouraged by what the Ole Miss pitching staff has done so far this season. If Arkansas can get its starting rotation ironed out, it would be my next team on the board with LSU/MSU/A&M/Auburn all in a group. I would say it would be smart to keep an eye on Alabama, too. It has some nice pieces with Connor Prielipp leading the way on the mound.
Jay
1:09
Tcu loses by 1 run to a top 5 team beats another top 5 team and drop out of the top 25? How does that make any sense?
Kendall Rogers
1:09
JAY -- We actually discussed keeping TCU in the Top 25, but at the end of the day, the Frogs did have a losing week, and also lost their midweek game. "Almost" winning only counts on hand grenades and horseshoes, as my mother used to say.
MobleyNole
1:10
the Noles have lost 4 games by 1 run, and mostly holding opponents under 5 runs. How close are they to really being an elite team? Seems like an error or 2 have cost them several games this year against some of the best in the country
Aaron Fitt
1:10
I think they're still not close to being an elite team -- the defense is really bad, and the offense has way too much swing-and-miss. Yesterday's offensive performance was encouraging, but they need to continue to have more competitive at-bats, and they really need to clean up the defense, especially on the infield. I do think the pitching gives them a chance to be elite if they can improve in those other two areas, because the pitching is outstanding. And I do believe Mike Martin Jr. will make that offense better as the year goes on. Top 15 kind of club for me, a long way to go before they're a top five kind of club.
Charles
1:11
How do y’all feel about Oklahoma after this weekends intense series against SDSU? Also, do y’all think Peyton Graham is going to keep up his hot streak? He looks like one of the best freshmen in the country right now. Thank y’all!
Kendall Rogers
1:11
I think Oklahoma is going to have a really, really nice season. I love the weekend rotation with Cavalli, Prater and now Dane Acker stepping up. And the bullpen is certainly loaded. And about Graham, yeah, I noticed the weekend he had. Skip Johnson was sky high on him after fall workouts, so it's nice to see him meeting expectations. OU doesn't have an overly explosive offense, so anything it can get out of guys like Graham, etc, is a bonus.
Tim
1:11
What is the panic meter for Arkansas at right now? This pitching staff looks awful and to me not even a regional team. What are your thoughts?
Aaron Fitt
1:11
Oh I think that's an overreaction. I think the pitching is average, and the offense is still going to be elite. And that can still be a winning combination. When the dust settles, I expect Arkansas to wind up in that 9-16 group of hosts; whether they host or not, they'll definitely be in a regional, you can take that to the bank.
Kyle
1:15
Is it time to consider Ole Miss a legitimate Omaha threat?
Kendall Rogers
1:15
Kyle -- Absolutely. Ole Miss had a very very good non-conference slate, the starting rotation looks rock solid and you know the Rebels will hit enough as they do almost every year. No reason to think, at this point, they can't be an Omaha contender.
Rob
1:16
Saw a post about how ULM is one of the top 10 teams in Run Differential per Plate Appearance. Do you see them as a strong candidate to make a postseason run as a mid-major?
Aaron Fitt
1:16
The WarHawks qualify as one of those big surprises of the first month -- I don't think anybody expected a 12-3 start against a pretty decent nonconference schedule. I like the veteran core of position guys led by Ryan Humeniuk and Andrew Beesly, both of whom have gotten off to fantastic starts. There are a lot of upperclassmen in that lineup, which leads me to believe this team could be a legitimate factor in the Sun Belt all year. I need to see how the pitching holds up before I really buy in, but Ty Barnes is a nice senior ace who has had a great first month.
Adam F.
1:18
As a Miami fan, what should be my biggest concern, that Miami is hitting 263? That there average with RISP is abysmal or that Raymond Gil is hitting below the Mendoza Line? Also do you see Miami turning the hitting around and living up to their top 10 pre - season billing?
Aaron Fitt
1:18
I'm really not concerned about the offense. Gil is too talented not to get hot, I really think he'll figure it out soon. I thought Miami would be one of the best offensive teams in the country, and I think it's fair to downgrade that expectation a little bit (especially with Zamora out), but I still think they'll be one of the better offenses in the ACC, and obviously their starting pitching is truly elite. Still an easy top-10 team for me, still an Omaha club.
BaseballFan8
1:20
Any thoughts on DBU's season so far, and what it will take improvement wise to maybe make a deeper tourney run come June?
Aaron Fitt
1:20
I like DBU's club -- good, balanced roster there. You'd probably like to see a little more consistency out of the starting pitching, but the pieces are there -- all three of those weekend guys have real ability, and I love the Kechely-Carraway duo in the bullpen, obviously. It's not going to be one of those big scary offenses that we've seen from DBU before, but I think it will remain competent enough to win a lot of games.
Nick
1:22
What is holding back Oklahoma State from being in the Top 25? I get five Ls this early is a concern but looking at NC State, , FSU and Long Beach it's hard to imagine why they aren't breaking the Top 25.
Kendall Rogers
1:22
Nick -- Oklahoma State has a solid club and no doubt Josh Holliday will have those guys playing at a high level at some point in Big 12 play, but OSU's marquee weekend right now is a series win over BYU, which has a losing record. NC State has taken care of business against everyone it has played until that Virginia series, and I'm not entirely sure your argument against Long Beach State. LBSU has played one of the nation's toughest schedules and has series wins against Wake Forest and Mississippi State. FSU is the one team with just an OK resume to me, but the Noles did beat FAU (who almost always is in the postseason) twice a couple of weekends ago.
cool 1
Joey F
1:23
what are your thoughts on Northwestern and their standing in the big10. Was following their appearances in South Carolina for two series and have shown promise as a strong ball club. Would love to hear your thoughts?
Aaron Fitt
1:23
I think Northwestern's pitching depth has definitely improved, which has made a big difference. Even with Quinn LaVelle struggling, Northwestern has pitched pretty well, and I think Mike Doherty is a nice emerging sophomore with a putaway curveball. The bullpen, led by low-slot lefty Sam Lawrence, has mostly been lights-out — I think that's Northwestern's biggest strength. I think this team can be competitive in the Big Ten, but I'm not ready to pronounce them a regional-caliber club.
Connor
1:26
Chances of Iowa getting an at large this year with a weak big ten?
Kendall Rogers
1:26
Connor -- a little too early to project how someone's RPI will look in two months, but they are sitting at 40 with a road series looming against CS Northridge, which is at 15. Iowa at least has some meat on its non-conference resume right now, but the fact the Big Ten as a whole has struggled in non-conference play is going to be a factor for those RPIs come May. Iowa needs to do what it can out of conference to make up for that.
Guest
1:27
What are your thoughts on the CAA? Northeastern had an impressive journey in Florida after getting swept in Alabama to start the season.
Aaron Fitt
1:27
I like that Northeastern team -- I regarded them as a potential at-large team heading into the season, the No. 2 team in the CAA behind UNCW, and I still feel that way. Winning a series at FAU is big, and sweeping a road set at USF is a nice weekend too, even though USF hasn't been great (having to play Florida for three games won't help your winning percentage). Charleston is off to a great start with a talented young club, we'll see if they've got staying power, but I do like their talent. And JMU was kind of my sleeper team heading into the year, really like their lineup. I think the CAA has a chance to be a two-bid league this year, and I see those four teams as the contenders.
Jim
1:28
How do you feel about Arizona’s chances this year? And what do you make of there start, although they have struggled at times, with a series win vs Houston and a midweek win at Texas?
Kendall Rogers
1:28
Jim - Arizona was my Omaha Sleeper, and I'm still with that, though I wish the Wildcats would defend a little better. I said before the season this could easily be a 40-45 win team IF the pitching staff had an ERA around 4.50. Right now, Nate Yeskie's staff has an ERA under four. I'm really intrigued to see how U of A does in Pac 12 play.
Guest
1:29
How legit are Nick Gonzales’s numbers at NMSU? Is he a legit pro prospect or just another high altitude prospect of Las Cruces (see Billy Becher)?
Kendall Rogers
1:29
Guest -- Nick is definitely a VERY legit player and prospect. He had a strong showing at the Cape Cod League and has been extremely consistent throughout his career. Gonzales was just OK against A&M, though. Showed pretty good defensive instincts for the most part outside of one error, and the offensive approach wasn't bad, he just didn't have much success until he faces the Aggies' weakest arms. To be fair, Asa Lacy and Christian Roa is going to make a lot of guys look silly this spring.
Darrell
1:30
What are yalls thoughts on Will Bednar’s entrance into Miss State’s weekend staff? And out of MacLeod, Bednar, Koestler, and Cerantola, what do y’all see emerging as the weekend rotation in the middle of SEC play? Thank y’all!
Aaron Fitt
1:30
Love the move to start Bednar -- he's a real high-end talent, and judging by his strong start this weekend it looks like he's capable of maintaining his stuff pretty well in a starting role. I saw him up to 94 mph with riding life up in the zone and a decent curveball in Week Two against Oregon State, and I like the loose arm action, which he repeats well. I suspect he'll stick in that rotation all year behind MacLeod (who looks capable of being a true Friday ace now — great start from him Friday). As for Sunday, I could see rolling with Cerrantola a little longer to try to get him to find more consistent command -- I just think you need reps to get there. But ultimately, it's a nice security blanket to know you can always stick the wily, super-competitive Koestler in that role and just let Cerrantola air it out in the bullpen.
B Easy
1:33
ECU had a lackluster performance at the Keith LeClair Classic weekend before last and accordingly it seems like people are writing them off. The AAC looks tough but given ECU's track record of consistency and quality pitching should the Pirates still be the favorites in the league? Granted it's been against lesser competition, but the bats have also come alive during the current 5-game winning streak and eben though it's early the team has a top 5 RPI. What do you think ECU's ceiling is after a month of OOC play?
Aaron Fitt
1:33
We are certainly not writing off ECU, and talked about bringing them back into the Top 25 this week -- their best weekend was a sweep of Georgia Southern, which probably isn't a regional team even though it's off to a pretty good start. Other teams had louder wins against better competition, so ECU got left out. In any event -- I remain high on ECU's pitching, and it is good to see the offense heat up — that was my main reservation about the Pirates this year, because they just lost so much. At the end of the day, I think ECU will wind up as a back-end Top 25 team, I don't expect them to be a regional host, but could be a dangerous 2-seed type (though I reserve the right to adjust that expectation as the season progresses!). And yes, I still see ECU as the favorite in the American.
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