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D1Baseball Weekly Chat: May 9
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Sam Smith
12:00
What in the world happened to my Vols this weekend
Kendall Rogers
12:00
Sam -- Give Kentucky credit for making some BIG pitches and getting some big hits, but I thought Tennessee kind of looked checked out over the weekend. Not sure if it was because of the crap weather or what, but not the typical energy the Vols usually play with. WTS -- I suspect the Vols will establish normalcy at home this weekend.
Brad
12:01
I know UConn's schedule has been very light but is there any viable scenario you see where they move into the discussion for hosting?
Kendall Rogers
12:01
Brad -- The RPI is sitting in the mid 30s right now, and would probably need to get into the mid20s to have a shot. With that said, there's definitely a pathway there. If UCONN cruised the rest of the regular season and destroyed the field in the Big East tourney, it would have around 50 wins with a Top 10 human ranking. That would be a tough team to turn down as a host if UCONN is within striking distance.
Big 12 Fan
12:03
Texas is now back inside the top-16 in RPI with a road series win at WVU. With only five regular season games left (TX Southern, SHSU, KU (3)) do they need to go 5-0 in those games to host? Would a 14-10 Big 12 record be enough for them to host?
Kendall Rogers
12:03
Big 12 -- If the Longhorns are 14-10 in the league and play well in Arlington, that would very much be a strong hosting resume, IMO, when you look at some of UT's higher-end wins. I would probably lean toward UT hosting in that situation, but it's still very fluid.
Guest
12:04
After Auburn dropped the series to Arkansas, where do you see their host chances now? Still top 10 RPI but only 13-11 in the SEC currently.
Kendall Rogers
12:04
I have Auburn finishing regular season play with 16-17 conference wins, so that, combined with a strong RPI, would be enough to host, at least in the first round. Win 17 or more and Auburn is in the top eight discussion, IMO. I think AU finishes at 17-13.
Tyler
12:05
Is there any pathway for Charlotte to snag an at large bid out of CUSA?
Kendall Rogers
12:05
Tyler -- Sitting at 83 in the RPI right now as a C-USA team, the 49ers have a LONG way to go to even get in striking distance. CHAR needs to get in that 40-50 range to have a shot.
Tim
12:07
Is Old Dominion in the Field of 64 now with the road series win over Southern Miss?
Kendall Rogers
12:07
Tim -- ODU is an interesting case, because it has 6 wins vs. RPI Top 50 teams (Which is solid for a mid-major), and is up to 41 in the RPI. However, ODU is still sixth in C-USA. I think ODU is out as of today ... but clearly trending upward.
Tortured Tiger
12:07
Has there ever been a team like Clemson that seems to be equally as possible to be a 2 seed somewhere with a (admittedly unlikely) strong finish to the season as it is they straight up don't make the tournament? Seems crazy that a 31-17 team that's currently #18 in RPI still has work to do to be in the NCAA tournament. Weird year for the Tigers...
Aaron Fitt
12:07
Yeah, very weird year. A week ago I would have told you Clemson was dead in the water at 6-14 in the ACC. Now, after sweeping Georgia Tech, it feels like Clemson will get in if it wins its last two series, especially if it can sweep BC. Hell of a ride for those Tigers.
HornFan
12:08
Is it just me or is the “bubble” situation for both hosting and getting in fairly soft this season? It seems like in listening to the Nerdcast there’s only about 18 teams each week being discussed for hosting and about 66-67 teams total for 64 spots.
Aaron Fitt
12:08
Yeah I think you're right, that's as good observation. Some years it feels like we've got 24 strong hosting candidates and 70 at-large candidates. This year, the pool has definitely seemed smaller for both.
Hollis
12:08
If ole miss can win the last two series vs lsu and Texas a&m, would they be in contention to make the tournament? And if not, how would they have to do at Hoover?
Kendall Rogers
12:08
Hollis -- That would put Ole Miss at 14 SEC wins going into Hoover. I would *think* winning game in Hoover would probably get Ole Miss in given its RPI would be in that 30-40 range. But that's assuming there are no upsets in other conference tournaments.
cool 1
Jayrok
12:10
You were clear last week that it would take a lot to move the Vols out of first place. Wondering how the conversation went after their series at Kentucky? They looked a bit more human. If they were swept, would your decision have changed?
Kendall Rogers
12:10
JAYROCK -- Great question. Aaron, Roons and myself certainly discussed moving Oregon State to No. 1. OSU is playing at a very high level. With that said, the Vols have been unreal all but one weekend this season, and their entire body of work dwarfs the Beavs' at the moment. It's definitely a mulligan, but one mulligan that is definitely deserved. WTS - I think the separation between Tennessee and OSU is a lot less than I thought it was a week ago. I watched two of the games between the Beavs and Ducks and was extremely impressed with the Beavs. Getting Pfennigs back is huge for the Beavs, too. Check out Aaron's piece today on those guys -- great stuff.
12:12
Also, just to get on the record, Cooper Hjerpe is my slam dunk pick for Pitcher of the Year in college baseball. Yeah, not exactly going out on a limb... but an unreal season. I was intrigued that Aaron thought he was a mid-first-rounder, too.
Alex from Atascocita
12:11
ECU seems to have found its winning ways as the season is quickly reaching the end of the regular season. Seems like AAC is going to come down to the final weekend showdown between Houston at ECU. If ECU can finish regular season with 37 or 38 wins and regular season title, can the slide into an at large or will then still need an AAC tournament crown knowing the AAC is weak this year? Also, thoughts on the 9 inning no hitter for CJ Mayhue on Friday? Tough not getting credit for a true no-hitter since it went to extras.
Aaron Fitt
12:11
Hi Alex -- by reeling off back to back sweeps, it now does feel like ECU is in much better at-large position if it doesn't win the AAC tourney. The RPI has jumped from the 50s to No. 37, and I think if it stays inside the top 40, they're safe. In the 40s would be on the bubble but still have a decent shot. Mayhue is awesome -- always loved him in the bullpen, but he clearly has the pitchability to thrive as a starter in college, as that amazing performance showed. Smart move by ECU to move him into that Friday role. You'd still like ECU's chances in the postseason better if they had both Whisenhunt and Mayhue, but at least now they've found a legit shutdown Friday night guy. I think that's a major difference maker.
Guest
12:13
If Mercer wins there final two series, Vmi at home and Samford on the road, how far do they need to make it into the socon tournament to keep the at large? I know we have limited opportunities for quad one wins ( Georgia Southern midweek and potentially Wofford if we meet them in the Socon tournament).
Aaron Fitt
12:13
Getting swept at WCU was obviously a big setback, but the Bears are still in good RPI shape at No. 33. Without a conference regular-season title, I think they need to stay there in the mid-30s to have an at-large shot, and the RPI Needs Report says they can finish in the top 32 if they win seven of their last eight. So a strong finish is definitely important, because the history for teams that don't win regular-season titles in leagues like the SoCon isn't great for at-large bids.
BR
12:14
Seems like the top 6 CUSA teams are rolling right now. Still only a two bid league? (Southern, ODU, LA Tech, UTSA, MTSU,FAU)
Kendall Rogers
12:14
BR -- I am starting to think Conference USA will morph into a three-bid league. Suddenly, its RPI, which was around 8-9 earlier this spring, is now sitting at a very very solid 5. What a tide turner for that league. How do you dissect all those teams from a postseason standpoint, too? Very difficult.
Todd
12:16
Kentucky’s road to the tournament?
Aaron Fitt
12:16
At 9-15 in the SEC and No. 58 in the RPI, the Wildcats still have a ways to go, but this weekend definitely gives them a shot. The RPI is the bigger obstacle, because even winning two out of three in their last two weekends to get to 13-17 in the league will probably leave them outside the RPI range an SEC team needs to get in. The Needs Report says they need to finish 8-0 to land in the top 45 heading into Hoover, and I doubt you'd see an SEC team with a losing conference record get a bid outside the top 45 in the RPI. So they'll probably wind up having work to do in Hoover regardless.
WV Fan
12:18
WV took one from Texas but it was a home series for WV and one of the losses was ugly. Did the weekend hurt or help their postseason chances?
Kendall Rogers
12:18
WV -- Tough series loss, but honestly, it didn't really change much for WVU. 39 RPI -- 10-8 in the Big 12, and a favorable weekend to end the regular season. I think at worst WVU finishes league play at 13-11 with a solid RPI. That should do it barring a disaster at Globe Life in a few weeks.
Mike
12:20
Was it still unanimous that Tennessee is #1?
Aaron Fitt
12:20
Ultimately it was. I was definitely on the fence after watching the Beavers this weekend -- I thought they looked like a very complete team playing at an exceptionally high level right now, whereas the Vols are not currently playing their best baseball. But as Kendall mentioned, Tennessee's overall body of work is still louder, with more high-end wins against regional teams (road sweeps of Vandy and Florida, a sweep of Georgia Southern, a series win against Auburn). The Beavers are 5-0 against Oregon and 3-1 against Gonzaga, with one win against Stanford in a series loss and a midweek split vs. Grand Canyon, but that's it as far as wins against regional clubs. Still pretty good, but not quite as good as Tennessee, especially since the Beavers also have a few losses against teams like Wazzu, Arizona State, Cal and Utah, three of whom have losing records. I do think it's very close between UT and OSU, but the Vols earned one mulligan week.
KR-Hates-My-Team
12:21
If selection day was today, would Southern Miss be hosting? If so, what is the bare minimum W/L record the Eagles can afford to have down the stretch to keep that host spot? Feels like the opportunity is slipping away……
Kendall Rogers
12:21
I'd probably still have USM as a host right now -- but it's not trending the right direction. USM needs to get healthy ... now.
RFBleacherCreature
12:21
I want off the Clemson Baseball rollercoaster...  So in a hypothetical, Clemson wins 1 in Charlottesville and Sweeps BC and finishes 13-16 with an RPI in the 18-25 range, are they in?  Or still have work to do in the ACCT
Aaron Fitt
12:21
In this scenario, it's a definite bubble case, but my gut says they'd sneak in if they were able to win at least one game in Charlotte.
cool 2
Brandon
12:23
I know a lot of the rankings have to do with what the people around you do week to week. Arkansas is ranked 4th, same as last week when you projected them as the 9th seed. Do you think Arkansas is the 4th best team in the country or are they ranked there because they've won on the correct weeks?
Kendall Rogers
12:23
Brandon -- I thought the Hogs played pretty well over the weekend. Robert Moore finally came through and they're getting contributions from a lot of different guys. I think i would take the Hogs in a H2H series against VT, Miami, Louisville and Stanford.
Cold Weather Curious
12:23
Two Q's. 1) Any consideration given to weather/time of year for certain results? Clemson goes 0-5 on the road against ND and Pitt in sub 40 weather with some precipitation. Are those losses weighed any differently than others?

2)Also, does the committee consider the conference teams that aren't on your schedule aside from general SOS metrics? Clemson missed both Duke and UNC who are bottom of the table teams and teams Clemson could've created some separation from had they played head to head?
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