JotCast | D1Baseball Weekly Chat: May 22

Return to

D1Baseball Weekly Chat: May 22

Aaron Fitt

12:03

Hello friends, happy conference tournament week. Let's dive in!

SEA

12:06

How much work does BC need to do to host? This Northeastern fan would love to have an all New England Regional

Aaron Fitt

12:06

BC enters the ACC tournament right in the thick of the hosting race, with a 16-14 league record and a No. 14 RPI. It feels like Wake, Clemson, UVa and Miami are all secure hosts, so BC and Duke are probably competing for one more hosting spot out of the ACC -- I don't see both of them getting one, but the team that shows better this week could separate itself. Duke has a head-to-head edge over BC, but the Eagles have all those road wins, and I think it's impressive what they did in nonconference given that they have to spend the first six weeks on the road, so even though their nonconference SOS isn't great, I don't think that tells the whole story. I think a New England regional is a very real possibility.

Chandler

12:08

Does the SEC tournament matter at all for Arkansas? And what is the biggest story line going into the SEC tournament?

Aaron Fitt

12:08

Not a bit from a seeding perspective -- the Hogs are locked in as a top-eight, and it doesn't really matter if they're 2, 3 or 4 -- the key is to have a home regional and super, and they will. I think the borderline SEC host candidates are the big story to watch -- how will Tennessee, Alabama, South Carolina and to a lesser degree Auburn handle themselves this week? The Vols, Tide and Gamecocks all could use some wins in Hoover; Auburn probably OK regardless.

Raider

12:09

I noticed in Kendall’s article about hosting and bubble teams that Texas Tech wasn’t listed. Is that because they are safely in as of his writing or is it because they are out and have to do some work in the Big 12 Tournament?

Aaron Fitt

12:09

Maybe just an oversight by KR; the Raiders are definitely on the bubble at 12-12 in the Big 12 and No. 44 in the RPI. They really could use a win or two this week to secure their position.

Corbin

12:11

How much does conference tournament performance play into seeding? Has West Virginia played themselves out of a hosting spot and can Oklahoma State do enough in the Big 12 tournament to be a national seed?

Aaron Fitt

12:11

I think the Big 12 tournament will matter significantly, since it's so hard to separate those top three teams -- they've all beaten each other. It feels like UT has to be ahead of WVU right now based on the sweep, which is just a tick louder than WVU taking two of three from OK State or OK State taking two of three from Texas. So right now, WVU is probably third of those three, even though I really like WVU's resumé overall. I don't really see any of these teams getting into the top 8, but 2 of the 3 could certainly host, and how they fare this week will play a huge role, I suspect.

Earl

12:12

good afternoon fellas, thx for a another awesome year of college baseball knowledge! Does it Lsu doesn’t need a win to lock up the top 8 seed ? Would u sit Skenes to rest up for regionals ? Be honest with u guys I’m very nervous for my tigers going into the regionals pitching inconsistently !

Aaron Fitt

12:12

I think LSU is probably fine for a top 8 even if the Tigers go winless in Hoover -- going 19-10 in the SEC with a No. 4 RPI screams top-eight seed. That said, I'd probably still pitch Skenes on his usual rest, just maybe make it a shorter outing than usual.

Doug

12:13

13 straight wins for the GCU Lopes and beating out Sam Houston State for the regular season title. Are they a legit postseason threat? Do you believe they could be a sneaky team to win a regional?

Aaron Fitt

12:13

Yeah good call Doug, I think the Lopes are certainly a threat. They need to win the conference tourney to get in, since the RPI is down at No. 69, but that team has experience and talent, and they are clearly red-hot. If they wind up as a 4-seed, that is not a 4-seed I'd want to see as a host.

Bob Gagnon

12:16

What does ECU need to do to host? Win their tournament? If yes, do they need any help even if they win their tournament. If ECU turns out to be a #2 seed, will they be rewarded with a favorable regional and where would they go?

Aaron Fitt

12:16

I think the Pirates suffer from the same deficiency as the other top RPI teams in the mid-major leagues, like Indiana State, DBU and UConn -- they haven't done great against top 50 opponents. Given the glut of hosting candidates with considerably more high-end wins, I don't really envision ECU hosting with a 4-6 top 50 record, even if they win the conference tourney. But it also wouldn't be a shocker if they did snag a host. Definitely still in the running. If they're on the road, I would bet on a drivable ACC site like Charlottesville, Winston-Salem or Durham (probably not W-S because that would be a strong 2-seed for the No. 1 overall national seed to have in its regional).

Bobcat

12:17

What are y’all’s thoughts on Texas State?

Kendall Rogers

12:17

I think Texas State could be really dangerous in the postseason with some of the front-line arms it has, along with some of those bats. But right now the RPI being in the 50s for a Sun Belt team is problematic. Bobcats can make the field with a strong showing in the conference tourney, though. There's a definite pathway.

Caleb

12:19

If OU can get one win in the Big 12 tourney does that solidify them as in?

Kendall Rogers

12:19

Caleb -- at this point for Oklahoma, it's all about what happens with stolen bids. Right now the bubble is extremely weak, which is why OU is in the field. As long as there aren't a plethora of stolen bids, Oklahoma winning a couple in Arlington would probably do the trick. But that's a BIG if.

Will

12:20

Can you briefly explain if there is a different analysis done for your top 25 rankings compared to your projected regional hosts? Specifically, Uconn-Miami-Oregon St are 9,10, and 11 in your rankings and it appears only Miami is a host team as we enter conference tournament play. Miami is 4-9 on the road and a 19 RPI, Oregon State (30 RPI) is 0-3 vs the top 25 RPI and while Uconn (25 RPI) playing in the Big East is only 1-1 vs the top 25 they have 18 road victories. If you don't think Uconn or Oregon St are host teams why are they ranked in the top 11?

Aaron Fitt

12:20

These are two different exercises. The field of 64 projections represent our attempt to forecast how the committee will construct the field next weekend, based on the criteria that we know the committee uses. We don't lean on the RPI metrics when constructing the Top 25, which is more of a barometer of how teams are playing. If you get into the Top 25 and keep on winning all your weekends, you're going to keep rising, and generally won't drop even if you lack those marquee wins. The Top 25 is therefore weighted toward series wins, which we believe is a huge marker of a good team. To break into the Top 25 as a mid-major who lacks those high-end wins, you have to have a talented roster that we believe is capable of making a run in the postseason, and you need some good wins even if they aren't necessarily top 25/50 RPI wins. But once you're in, you typically don't drop out unless you lose series.

CajunFan

12:21

Let's talk about the Fun Belt. What happens if a non Troy, Coastal, S Miss team wins the tourney. Will the belt get 4 teams?

Kendall Rogers

12:21

Cajun -- I tend to think Troy gets squeezed out in that scenario, but what if Troy plays the team you're talking about in the conference championship? The Trojans are likely in, and that league is very likely a four-bid league. Coastal and Southern Miss are 100% locks to make the field. Good question by the way.

Terpitude

12:21

I've got Maryland (2 seed), Indiana (3 seed), and Iowa (3 seed) making the NCAA tournament. But what if a team like Michigan State wins the B1G Tournament? Would Iowa find itself like Rutgers 2022?

Aaron Fitt

12:21

Agree with your three teams, and think Indiana could even be a 2-seed with that strong RPI (No. 27). All three of those teams look like very secure at-large teams, so if a different team wins the conference tournament, I think the Big Ten becomes a four-bid league.

Stephen

12:23

Who had a more impressive mid-season turnaround: Auburn or Clemson?

Kendall Rogers

12:23

I would say Clemson. The thing with Auburn is that it actually did win some really nice non-conference games earlier this season against Indiana and USC.... where as Clemson didn't really have much to hang its hat on until it went on that run in ACC play. Both teams have been ultra-impressive over the past few weeks, though.

Eric Simmons

12:23

Is Arizona State and USC in the NCAA Tournament if they win at least 1 game in the PAC 12 Tournament?

Aaron Fitt

12:23

USC for sure, and would probably get in even with a winless showing thanks to that 17-13 conference record, and a stronger stretch run than ASU had. The Sun Devils have some real holes in their resumé that undermine their 16-13 league record; just 5-14 against the top 50, and not a very good final month. I think they must win at least one game to have a decent shot, and two would be better.

Justin

12:25

How many games must South Carolina win in the SEC Tourney to salvage a Regional Host?

Aaron Fitt

12:25

I think the number is 2. That brutal last month really undermined a lot of South Carolina's very strong metrics... but they still have a great RPI and lots of high-end wins, so if they can just show the committee some life and win a couple games in Hoover, I think they still host.

James

12:26

How do you feel about Southeastern Louisiana letting Matt Riser go? As a Lions season ticket holder, it seemed like a move that needed to be done.

Kendall Rogers

12:26

First of all, I really like Matt. I've known him a long time and I think he's a great person and a very quality coach. With that said, the Lions were trending the wrong way last season before going on a run in the conference tourney. Then, they followed that up by finishing at the bottom of a weak Southland Conference this season. A shakeup makes sense, but I also would've been totally fine with them staying pat with Matt. He's a good coach.

Jimbo

12:26

Thoughts on the pool play tournament format the ACC uses. Which format do you prefer SEC Round robin or ACC pool play?

Aaron Fitt

12:26

Personally I prefer the cadence of the ACC format, which I think puts less strain on teams and works better from a scheduling standpoint. But I know lots of people prefer the SEC format, which is at least less of a meat-grinder than it used to be. I hated the old SEC format, but the new one is pretty good.

Top 8 Seeds

12:28

Grade my top 8 seeds:

Wake
UF
Arkansas/LSU
Arkansas/LSU
Clemson
Stanford
Vanderbilt
Virginia

I understand why your rankings do as they do, but committee seed rankings are not done the same. Meaning, I get why yall have Stanford ranked 3, but their 34 SOS (worst of top 8 candidates), 11 RPI (worst of top 8 candidates), and 0 top 25 RPI wins (worst of top 8 candidates) should get them a worse top 8 seed then LSU, Arkansas, Clemson (heck even Vanderbilt honestly, I threw Stanford a bone here).

Aaron Fitt

12:28

We're pretty close to agreement here, we just have Stanford at No. 5 in our latest projection today, and I could see a case for having the Cardinal even a spot higher. Dominating the Pac-12 by five games is loud, and should be treated accordingly.

Lubbock

12:29

Man how fitting is it that the Big 12 came down to a 3 way tie for the championship. With that said which ones have the best chance to host or even get a top 8 seed?

Kendall Rogers

12:29

Lubbock, I would rank the order of hosting as Oklahoma State, Texas and West Virginia in that order right now. But make no mistake, the Big 12 tournament this week will have major bearing on how that pecking order looks a little later this week.

Guest

12:29

Is winning the AAC regular season and tournament enough for the Pirates to be a lock as a host? Would they also need help from others losing early in their respective tournaments?

Load More Messages

Connecting…

Your current subscriptions

None

E-mail Address	Chat Owner	Status	Remove

Enter your email address to be notified when Kendall Rogers hosts a chat