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D1Baseball Weekly Chat: May 20
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Mark
1:01
What has to happen to have Beavs or Cardinal top 8 seed?
Kendall Rogers
1:01
Personally, I think either the Cardinal or Beavers have to win the Pac 12 regular season crown, and I just don't see the pathway right now unless UCLA stinks it up the final weekend of the regular season. I would have teams like Texas Tech, ECU and even Oklahoma State ahead of those two teams in the pecking order. Not impossible, but difficult to get there, IMO.
Bob Pechtel
1:02
Does ECU have to win the AAC Tournament to get a Top 8 National Seed?
Kendall Rogers
1:02
Bob -- I don't think ECU has to win the conference tournament to get in, but I do think if ECU wins the conference tourney, it makes it incredibly difficult for the committee not to give CG's club a Top 8 seed. Right now, I think it's ECU or Ga. Tech for that final Top 8 spot. It's razor thin at this point.
Jake
1:04
Have the Aggies nailed down a host spot? If not, what do they need to do this week? Is a national seed possible with an SEC tournament championship?
Kendall Rogers
1:04
Jake --- I don't think the Aggies have nailed it down, but they've put themselves in a position of strength after that series win over Arkansas. The Aggies have solid metrics and have a strong RPI as well. I think a win over Florida puts them in very strong shape, while a loss would open the door for someone to swoop in and take the host. It's that close IMO.
Avent'sAgent
1:04
With the domination of UNC in Games 2 & 3 of the weekend series, does NC State have a hosting slot locked up?
Aaron Fitt
1:04
I'd stop just short of saying completely locked up, because there are a bunch of strong contenders for those last two spots, and if NC State goes 0-2 in Durham I could see the Wolfpack getting passed over, if somebody else jumps up and takes it. But I really like their chances.
Hooper
1:05
At 35-20 and 17-13 in the ACC, has FSU done enough to make a regional or do they need to win a game or two in the ACC tournament?
Kendall Rogers
1:05
Hooper -- I would not want to go winless in the ACC tournament and leave my fate up the committee. I would say the bubble is extremely soft right now so FSU looks to be in solid shape, but I would leave no doubt and win a game or two in the tournament. Win two games in the ACC tourney and I think 11's boys are fine barring an insane rash of stolen bids.
Aaron Fitt
1:06
I'll take it a step further: if they win two games in Durham, they're in for sure, bank on it. If they win one game, I think they're in pretty good shape, given the state of the bubble. 0-2, and they'll be sweating for sure.
TCU17
1:05
Who is the favorite heading into Oklahoma City this weekend: Texas Tech or Oklahoma State? Chances TCU can make a run?
Aaron Fitt
1:05
I think Tech is clearly the favorite, but you have to like the way Oklahoma State has played down the stretch, and they'll have the fans behind them, so definitely a strong contender there. I don't expect TCU to make a run, but you never know.
Max G.
1:07
What is the latest with UCSB's bid for playing in Las Vegas if they host a regional?
Kendall Rogers
1:07
Max - Last I heard they had an agreement with Las Vegas and the contract was soon to be signed. I will check again this week but would be shocked if anything has changed in terms of where they'd host. Vegas it is!
Caleb
1:07
Hey guys, ECU has played great all year but how do you think they will do in the conference tourney? They play a good Wichita State team that they struggled against. If they win that game they have to play the winner of the Houston vs. UConn game. Two really good teams. Do you think this will be a tough challenge for the pirates?
Aaron Fitt
1:07
ECU is clearly the overwhelming favorite -- I mean, they went 20-4 and won the league by seven games. That doesn't mean they can't get upset, but I'm certainly not betting on that to happen.
Jaysker
1:08
I hate what ifs but if Creighton sweeps through the Bigeast tournament is there still a shot they can host? I know it's a weak conference but if they end the season with an RPI in the 16-23 range is that enough? At least to be in the discussion?
Aaron Fitt
1:08
Yes, they'd definitely be right in the discussion if they can win the Big East tournament, coupled with their regular-season crown, good RPI and a respectable 6-2 record against the top 50. It would depend what the other host candidates do, though. Creighton can only control its own games, it has no control over what a Miami or a Texas A&M do, for instance. And those teams still have better resumés.
Rebel Swag
1:09
Ole Miss fans are disappointed and frustrated with this program, we'll see how things go down the stretch. I don't think this is likely, but would making it to Saturday or Sunday in the SEC tournament put the Rebs back into regional host discussion?
Kendall Rogers
1:09
Rebel -- As crazy as it sounds, yes, the Rebels would be back into the discussion. They could have four wins in the tourney, which would greatly increase the RPI and put them at 20 wins in the SEC overall.
Devin
1:10
Should Razorback fans be concerned about the number of strikeouts from this past weekend and the way the starters looked outside of Campbell?
Kendall Rogers
1:10
Devin -- I do have some concerns about the two young arms in the weekend rotation in the postseason, but I'm absolutely not thinking they lose a regional or super. I am just curious to see how they perform. As for the offense, we will see how they perform this week. The offense looked awesome in the series finale against the Aggies. The Aggies can really, really pitch, though.
Mark - Oklahoma
1:11
Have you ever seen a team with that finishes a season without a single RPI Q4 game? (150-299) resulting in an average RPI Win of 64th?  Do you think Oklahoma State already has a regional host in stone?  What do they need to do to secure a top 8 seed?
Aaron Fitt
1:11
That is very unusual -- but they've played 25 Q2 games, so I guess that makes sense. They're a lock to host, no question about that. And with a No. 8 RPI, they're definitely in the top-eight seed mix if they can make a nice run in OKC. I think their best shot is for Georgia Tech and ECU to stumble in conference tournaments, because I don't see OK State jumping over Texas Tech or Louisville, teams that won their regular-season crowns, or any of the clear-cut top five (UCLA, Vandy, MSU, Arkansas and Georgia).
jimmy
1:12
Is Nebraska a lock for the tournament now that they won the Michigan series?
Kendall Rogers
1:12
Jimmy -- You never want to go 0-2 in your conference tournament, but I tend to think Nebraska is in strong shape no matter what right now. Solid RPI, made a point to play (and win) games out of conference, finished strong in their league. A lot of things to like right now, IMO. Kudos to Coach Erstad and Co. for turning things around when their situation looked a little bleak.
cool 1
HburgGator
1:12
I know you'll probably get this question from more than 1 person today, but what does Florida have to do? Impressive win at Missouri (hadn't lost a home SEC series this season) this weekend where pitching really showed the potential we all hoped. Is there any chance that they are in with a first round loss in Hoover? They need to win 1? Win 2? RPI and SOS are in their favor with series wins over FSU (sweep) and Miami. Thanks!
Aaron Fitt
1:12
Yeah, because the bubble is so soft, I think Florida is probably safe if it can win that play-in game vs. Texas A&M. Even if the Gators lose, they're not dead in the water, because there are a number of teams with worse resumés that we currently have projected to get in. But I would not feel good about their chances at 13-18 in the SEC...
Chuck Reeder
1:13
What round is Drake Fellows expected to be drafted next month?
Aaron Fitt
1:13
I'd say probably 4-6.
Manuel
1:14
In your opinion, are LSU and A&M fighting for the same hosting slot?  Or do you believe the committee would allow both teams to host, resulting in the SEC getting six host sites (which seems a bit improbable to me)?
Aaron Fitt
1:14
I do think both of them can host, if they play well this week. Both finished with solid regular-season records in the SEC, they both have a ton of top 50 wins (that 19-14 top 50 mark for LSU is loud, although its 7-13 road record is a problem, and helps explain its more modest RPI). The SEC has gotten 7 hosts before, so I don't think 6 is too improbable.
Joe LeCates
1:15
Thank you for the chat, guys. It felt like a statement weekend from Garrett Mitchell who looked like a stone-cold star against Washington. He's a good player for sure, but do you guys see him as someone who steps up to the level of being say a top 5-10 college talent?
Aaron Fitt
1:15
Hey Joe -- yes, very loud weekend for Mitchell, who has had a really outstanding season. I keep getting reports from people out West raving about how good he's become. He's always had the tools and the body, and now the results are there too. I definitely think he could be a top-10 pick next year.
Jordan
1:18
Which championship does the committee take into consideration more, a regular season or tournament championship?
Aaron Fitt
1:18
Definitely the regular season, as it should. One weekend should not overshadow a season-long body of work. Teams can still help or hurt their cases in the conference tournaments, but I think it's telling that the committee considers overall conference record including regular-season and conference tournament games. That shows you how they view the conference tournament: just an extension of the overall body of work, rather than a crucial championship of its own.
Bobbruinbear
1:19
Here’s my final list for PAC 12 entrants to the 64: 1. UCLA 2. STANFORD 3.OREGON STATE 4. CALIFORNIA 5. ARIZONA STATE 6. OREGON (if they Win their final series with UCLA) Agree or disagree)
Aaron Fitt
1:19
Agree with the top 5... but even if Oregon takes 2 out of 3 from UCLA, I don't like their chances -- they'd still be just 12-18 in the Pac. No way they get in with that conference record. They'd have to sweep the Bruins to have a shot. And that ain't happening. Five-bid league, with Arizona as the potential sixth team if it can sweep Washington State. But even then, I don't like Arizona's chances with a 3-16 record against the top 50...
Eric Simmons
1:22
Is Florida back in the at large discussion after that enormous road sweep of Missouri? I think they are!
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