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D1Baseball Weekly Chat: May 17
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Aaron Fitt
2:02
Hey everybody, we're coming down the home stretch. Let's get after it.
Guest
2:03
Rumor is Oklahoma St may get Parker Scott and Brett Standlee back this weekend, does that change your postseason outlook on them any?
Kendall Rogers
2:03
Guest -- That would definitely change my outlook for Oklahoma State. Frankly, I have some renewed belief in the Pokes after taking that series from red-hot Baylor over the weekend. Getting Parker and Brett back would be massive when you consider how good Justin Campbell has been in that rotation as of late.
Kyle Niblett
2:05
What does Florida have to do to be a national seed: Take 2/3 at Arkansas + Win 2 in Hoover or Sweep + Win 1 in Hoover? How much outside help does it need?
Kendall Rogers
2:05
I'm assuming you're talking about a top eight seed? If so, a series win over Arkansas followed by two or three wins in Hoover would probably put Florida in a damn good spot to take a top eight from someone. For now? the RPI needs some work, as does the record vs. RPI Top 25 teams.
Brandon
2:06
Can Arkansas lose the number 1 overall seed at this point?
Kendall Rogers
2:06
Yes. I would lock the Hogs into the No. 1 seed. I'm not sure who else you could put in there at this point? Even if Tennessee somehow moved ahead of Arkansas next weekend, the Hogs still took a ROAD series from the Vols. I'd still favor Arkansas in that situation.
trophy 1
TedD
2:06
Thank you, Aaron, for not writing off U Va. What do they need to do to be sure of getting a bid. And if they're selected, just how far can they go?
Aaron Fitt
2:06
This has been a hell of a run for a team that started 4-12 in the ACC. To be sitting at 16-17 in the league heading into the final weekend is nothing short of incredible. My feeling remains that if they take two out of three at BC to finish 18-18 in the league with six series wins in their final seven weekends, they deserve to be in, and I believe the committee will see it that way too. If they do make it in, I think this team is really dangerous because their pitching is much better than most teams I've seen this year. That's an Omaha-caliber staff, I think, and the offense has gradually gotten better.
AgFan47
2:07
How did A&M get to this point? Not too long ago the Ags were coming off of 3 seasons in a row of 3 Super Regional appearances and 1 trip to Omaha. What led to this fall off in success?
Kendall Rogers
2:07
AgFan -- That's a very, very good question. I just think if you look at the Aggies top to bottom, they aren't very physical/athletic offensively, and the pitching staff just hasn't been very good this year, where as Rob C has been absolute $ with the pitching staff in the past. It's been a weird year for A&M, and coming on the heels of having Asa Lacy/Christian Roa in last year's rotation with huge aspirations, it's a brutal way to likely end a coaching tenure.
Nate
2:08
What does UNC need to do from here on out to feel good about their chances of making a regional?  Will 18-19 ACC wins be enough given that the committee has already foreshadowed what they think about the ACC with only 2 potential host sites?
Aaron Fitt
2:08
I think 18-18 might be a little dicier for the Heels just because they really haven't been good out of conference; they would be just 25-24 overall in that scenario. That still might be enough to get them in -- I think it should, frankly, because going .500 in a 36-game grind in the ACC is really not easy. But the lack of respect the committee has already shown the ACC definitely raises some alarm bells.
RFBleacherCreature
2:08
Does Clemson have to sweep Duke to get in at this point?  I have no confidence in winning any games in the ACC Tournament...
Kendall Rogers
2:08
RF -- I will talk to Aaron and Mark more about it tonight, but I'm of the belief that Clemson probably needs to win that series, and win a game or two in the ACC tournament to feel very very safe, because you have to account for a few 'stolen' bids so to speak. Clemson's bi-polar season continues ...
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Jake
2:09
Are the regional pairings this year going to be 100 percent matched up for a super regional like in previous years? Or will that change in 2021 given some of the guidelines the NCAA is implementing due to COVID?
Kendall Rogers
2:09
Nothing is changing in terms of the NCAA tournament appearances. 1 vs. 16, 2 vs. 15 and so on ...
Tex
2:13
So looks like Rice won't qualify for the conference USA tournament after another losing season.  Do you think they'll bring Matt Bragga back for another year?  51 - 76 record for the 3 years is pretty rough.  Thanks.
Kendall Rogers
2:13
Tex -- I'm fascinated to see which direction Rice goes here. Bragga has certainly not done very well, but the Owls were also given a pretty tough hand to start with. WTS -- there's no question Rice should be so much better than it is right now no matter what the cupboard looked like when the new staff took over. My hunch is that Joe K keeps Bragga one more year with more years still left on his deal and Joe having his eye on the N'Western AD job, but we will see.
West
2:14
With only 2 regular season games (ODU who is 16 RPI) and the CUSA tourney to go, what does LA Tech need to do to secure a regional host? Southern Miss is done for the regular season it seems and Charlotte has a series with UNCW who is 81 RPI.
Aaron Fitt
2:14
It kinda feels to me like La Tech and Southern Miss are competing for one host spot, though it's certainly possible that both could host, but I think that's a little less likely now that Ole Miss has really solidified its chances with that series win over Vandy, and you've also got Miss State as a host -- I don't think we'll see four hosts in the MS/LA region. Tech is a tick ahead of USM in the standings and won 5 out of 8 against USM this season, so Tech is ahead in my pecking order, but it could come down to how they both fare in the conference tourney. For me it's simple: Tech just needs to out-perform Southern Miss.
Jon
2:15
Would love to get your opinion on the situation at Cal State Fullerton. A once proud Division-I powerhouse is now about to have their worst season in school history, a full season after their previous worst (and the start of the 2020 pandemic year was abysmal as well). Is a buyout of Rick Vanderhook in the cards for this small-budget program, or what direction would you take the program seeing that Hook has 3 years left on his deal?
Kendall Rogers
2:15
Jon -- I was told the other day not to expect Fullerton buyout Vanderhook after this season, but as with anything regarding coaches, it can and often is very fluid. CSF would have to come up with a few hundred thousand to buyout Hooky, and I'm not sure they care enough to spend that kind of $ when the school is low on $ to begin with. I get it that Fullerton had an abbreviated fall, but there's zero reason why the Titans should be this bad. Zero.
John Sonedecker
2:17
Why can't the Big Ten get some love.  You do keep bouncing Michigan, Nebraska, and Indiana in and out of the #21-25 rankings.  Is it their Conference-Only Schedule?  How many Big Ten teams do you think will make it into the NCAA Tournament? Last week, I think you even projected five (5): Nebraska, Indiana, Meatchicken*, Maryland, and Iowa.
Aaron Fitt
2:17
I think I still see five bids for the Big Ten, although Iowa definitely hurt its cause with that home series loss to Illinois. As for the top 25, those teams just keep beating each other up -- every time we bring one in, it loses its weekend and falls back out.
Spear
2:18
Do you think the committee is too locked in on RPI for FSU to play their way in as a one seed in a regional they aren't hosting? Clearly they are still weighing RPI heavy if FSU didn't make the list of 20 potential host spots
Kendall Rogers
2:18
Spear -- I think the fact that Florida State was not really heavily in the mix for a regional host tells me all I need to know about how the committee is going to view teams. Unfortunately, I think the committee is going to look very hard at RPI when it comes to the ACC, and I think that's a mistake in most cases. FSU will be a two-seed somewhere, and boy, that is NOT a two-seed I want.
VandyDan
2:20
First, let me say that my question is not about Vandy dropping to #3, but trying to understand how a team who did not play can advance in the rankings.  At this rate Texas may never play another game and end up #1
Aaron Fitt
2:20
You have no idea how long we agonized over the top five this week -- it was just an ugly week, and there was no good solution once you got past No. 1. Ultimately, Texas' rise has been stunted previously because of the SEC logjam at the top, so when those teams all stumbled it made sense to move Texas up now, even though it was idle this week. And we had already propped up Vandy in the 2-spot after they lost the Florida series; it just didn't feel right to leave them in the same spot after another series loss. A small hit seemed warranted, so Texas benefits. But man, nobody was happy after this Top 25 meeting.
JEL
2:22
Eaters from Irvine had another strong weekend. If they finish up in similar fashion with remaining conference games (Bakersfield and Fullerton) do you still have them as a #2 seed?
Kendall Rogers
2:22
JEL -- UCI is pretty much locked into a two seed. I don't see how they get an RPI that is one-seed worthy if you consider RPI at all. WTS -- Michael Frias and Co. are having quite an impressive spring and this is a dangerous, dangerous team in the postseason. It would not surprise me to see UCI in a SR -- at all.
Tim
2:23
Would winning the CUSA tournament be enough to get USM into the top 16?
Aaron Fitt
2:23
Considering they're already inside the top 20 (and let's call it the top 19 since Pitt just got swept), so I don't think Southern Miss necessarily has to win the conference tourney, no. If they out-perform La Tech in the tourney, they got a shot.
Heel
2:23
ACC bubble pecking order for at-large bids?
Kendall Rogers
2:23
I'll let Aaron chime in here, too. For me, as of now, I have my ACC bubble team order like this:

  1. North Carolina, 2. Virginia, 3. Clemson, 4. Virginia Tech.
I have the most faith in UVA in the conference tournament as well.
Aaron Fitt
2:27
I'd need to study this a bit more, but Kendall's order actually feels about right to me. Amazing that Virginia Tech has fallen so far, they were in the hosting race for  awhile. But they've really struggled down the stretch in the ACC.
FrogballUSA
2:24
With the series loss to ULM, did TCU lose out on being a top 8 seed? With it seeming like there will only be two Big 12 teams as National seeds, it is becoming more and more likely that those two will be Tech and UT even with the frogs controlling their own destiny in the regular season Big 12 championship. Can y’all give a situation in which TCU locks up a National seed, or is it out of reach at this point?
Aaron Fitt
2:24
Man was that a weird series loss, and obviously a setback... but I feel like the regular-season championship still carries a lot of weight, especially since the Big 12 has a "true" champion since all of the teams play each other. If TCU can bounce back and take that title, I still like its chances for a top eight.
Sam Smith
2:29
How surprised were you to see the altercation between DVH and Tony V on Sunday?
Kendall Rogers
2:29
I'm only answering this because I've seen so many questions about it. Coaches are competitors and things obviously boiled over for a host of reasons. I have a great deal of respect for Tony and DVH as coaches. They've done an incredible job. WTS -- I would not expect TV to be DVH's chosen one for that Arkansas job someday.
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