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D1Baseball Weekly Chat: May 15
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Timothy
2:03
West Virginia is Now up to #6 in the D1Baseball Poll, and will be Looking to wrap up their first ever Big 12 Title in any Men's Sport down in Austin this week.. How many Wins does WVU need at Texas and in the Conference Tournament to secure a Top 8 National Seed?
Kendall Rogers
2:03
Timothy -- if WVU wins that series and doesn't completely screw the pooch in Oklahoma City, it will be a top eight seed at this point. I would say the magic number is 3 or 4 at this point. Win the UT series + two wins in Arlington = Top 8.
cool 2
Aaron Fitt
2:03
Hi gang, let's dive in!
Wreck'em
2:04
What does Tech need to do between the Kansas series and Big 12 tourney to feel safe for the NCAA tourney? I would think a sweep and at least win 2 games in the tourney.
Kendall Rogers
2:04
I think if Tech sweeps that series, it is in at 13-11 in the Big 12, as long as it doesn't play bad in Arlington. If they just take 2/3 and they're .500 in the league, they'll need to play well in Arlington to solidify a bid, IMO. The good news is the RPI is in a MUCH better spot this week at 40. That's a much much better position to be in than 55-56.
Mo
2:06
Is there any chance Georgia still can go a regional thanks
Aaron Fitt
2:06
The Bulldogs aren't done... but they aren't in great shape either, that's for sure. If they can sweep LSU to get to 13 wins in the SEC, I think that would get them back on the bubble, and give them a legit shot. But short of that, I think they're out. And I'm not counting on them to sweep LSU.
Wheelz_onthabus
2:06
Is there any scenario where Alabama can host or is it too little too late for the tide?
Kendall Rogers
2:06
Wheelz -- Absolutely. Alabama is one game back of Auburn in the conference standings, but is two games better vs. RPI Top 50 with a much higher RPI (+9 spots higher). If Alabama wins that Ole Miss series at home this weekend, it would head into the tournament in a slightly better spot than Auburn, IMO. What an impressive showing by this team over the past couple of weeks. I liked what I saw against A&M over the weekend.
Guest
2:07
Regardless what happens this weekend against vandy is Arkansas guaranteed a top 8 seed?
Aaron Fitt
2:07
Oh yeah, no question about that one. Week after week, I marvel at the season Arkansas has had in the face of the injuries that team has had to deal with. But at 19-8 in the SEC, even if they get swept by Vandy to go 19-11, I think they're safe as a top-8.
Guest
2:07
Did UConn lose their chance to host a regional after dropping a game to Butler Sunday?
Kendall Rogers
2:07
Probably. It won't get an RPI boost against Creighton, and that would put UCONN in a position where it cannot slip up at all in the BIG EAST tournament. Run the table and it's possible ... but that's a lot to task for this time of year. Right now, the RPI is right on the border for hosting at 25.
Greg
2:08
Did Florida's rotation turn a corner this week, or was this just a continuation of Vandy's offensive problems?
Kendall Rogers
2:08
Greg -- It certainly seems so. Aaron's content on the Gators was pretty much the opposite of what I wrote last week because last week UF's pitching was pretty shaky at times, where as this past weekend it was very much nails. That's a massive development considering how deep and talented Florida's offensive lineup is. We will see if the Gators can continue that momentum this weekend at Kentucky.
Aaron Fitt
2:10
The version of Jac Caglianone I saw this weekend has been the version Florida fans have been waiting for all year. There have been glimpses of it, but this is the first time since probably the Miami series that he REALLY put it all together and showed what he can do. It was real command, he held his velo (still reached back for 98-99 in the 6th and 7th innings), showed dramatic improvement with his feel for the changeup, broke out his cutter very effectively toward the end of his outing, and mixed in his curveball well. He really had it all going. And that version of Cags is a total game-changer for the Gators.
Earl
2:08
Good afternoon guys, did Lsu play themselves out of a Top 8 seed after this series lost at home to state ? Hope they can right the ship !!!
Aaron Fitt
2:08
Nah, they're fine -- still 17-9 in the SEC, NO. 5 in the RPI. Still a very safe top-8 seed. Assuming they win the Georgia series, they'll cakewalk to a very high national seed.
Guest
2:11
What does nc state have to do to get in consideration for an at large?
Kendall Rogers
2:11
NC State's RPI is in a solid range at 26, but the conference record is a major major issue right now. I would say NC State needs to sweep the Pitt series to get to 13 league wins and hope to win at least a couple of games in the ACC tournament. What's funny is I could totally see NC State going on a run in Durham. The talent is there to do so.
Aaron Fitt
2:12
Agree with KR here. If you don't get to 13 conference wins in the ACC, it's an absolute non-starter for your at-large chances. They must sweep Pitt, and then would still need a couple wins in Durham I think.
Eric Simmons
2:14
Is it Pac 12 Tournament title or bust for UCLA as for their NCAA Tournament hopes??
Kendall Rogers
2:14
UCLA will need to win the Arizona State series and probably win two or three games in the Pac-12 tournament just to have a shot to get in at this point with an 11-14 league record and TWO games in seventh place from the sixth place standing. Speaking of, I'd probably have Arizona State on the bad side of the bubble if it loses that UCLA series. The Devils are really slipping right now.
Clemson Cat
2:14
RANK CLEMSON #1 YOU COWARDS! What a run the Tigers are on. It's hard to fathom the Tigers being a potential national seed given where things were when the season started. I might be emotionally protecting myself, but I'm not sold this run is sustainable and the lack of arm depth makes it hard to see them making it out of a regional format. Am I offbase there?
Aaron Fitt
2:14
I think it's fair to harden your heart a little bit -- this has been an amazing run, but you do wonder sometimes when you see these runs if a team is either peaking too early, or playing above its head a little bit, or both. But there's plenty to like about Clemson, it's an athletic and balanced position player group, and I think Jimmy Belanger has handled that pitching staff masterfully to get the most out of that group (which does have arm strength, let's not sell them short). Certainly they are capable of winning on a regional and getting to Omaha. Doesn't mean they definitely WILL do those things, but they sure could.
Brad
2:16
All, great job. What percentages do you give Coastal to host, National seed, get out of a regional? Thanks again great read!
Aaron Fitt
2:16
I'll go 70 percent host, 30 percent top-8 seed. If they do host, I really like their chances to win a regional at home -- that's an offensive club that is built for its home ballpark.
PatsHorns99
2:17
Where does DBU stand in terms of hosting a regional, and what else can they do to boost their case?
Aaron Fitt
2:17
I think sweeping UTSA puts DBU right back into strong hosting contention. Now they're 23-4 in C-USA with a No. 15 RPI, and they've already reached the 40-win mark overall. I think the degree to which they have dominated their league will appeal to the committee, and help offset that 2-5 mark against the top 50, which is the biggest knock on DBU. As of today, I think I am betting on DBU to land one of those last host spots.
Paul T
2:18
Has Oklahoma done enough to get in? Or can they afford to drop the series to OkState at home?
Kendall Rogers
2:18
Oklahoma is right there on the bubble for me. Lose that OSU series and they're sitting at 11-13 going into the Big 12 tournament. You're not getting in with that record in the Big 12. OU will need to win some games in Arlington for sure.
FrogFan24
2:19
Frogs have been on a mini run the past couple weeks. What do they have to do this week and in the Big 12 tournament to be a lock in the Field of 64?
Kendall Rogers
2:19
Frogs need to take care of business this weekend and go on a big run in Arlington. I'd probably have Oklahoma ahead of TCU in my pecking order. Much higher RPI (15 spots better) + the head-to-head. That = favorable to Oklahoma.
Goducks11
2:20
Man, Oregon missed Stoffal in huge way. He changes everything throughout a series for them.
who in the pac12 can feel “good” about being in right now?
Aaron Fitt
2:20
Yeah they were cruising along, and then the wheels really came off without Stoffal. Just shows you how important it can be to have that ace to set the tone for the weekend, and give you some length to take strain of the rest of the pitching staff. Right now, the "safe" regional teams in the Pac-12 are Stanford, Oregon State and Washington, with USC, Oregon and ASU all on the bubble. All three will probably be "bubble-in" this week for us, but they are not in the "safe" category.
Andrew
2:21
Any chance the Cajuns play themselves into at large contention this weekend at USM?
Kendall Rogers
2:21
Andrew -- they could with a series win for sure. Right now the RPI is way too light for me at 66 and I would have Troy ahead of the Cajuns in my pecking order. But take that series over USM and Louisiana probably has  an RPI in the 45-52 range. That changes the dynamic quite a bit. But lose that series this weekend and Matt Deggs and the boys will need to win the conference tournament for sure,.
Dylan
2:22
A week ago we were talking about the outside shot of Maryland sneaking into a hosting position if they could win out and get into the 20-25 RPI range. After a midweek loss to Northeastern and dropping a game to Minnesota at home, they're down to 47 in the RPI. Should I be sweating about them getting into the field at all now? Feels like they have to win either the Big Ten tournament or regular season title to lock themselves in. With the tiebreaker over Indiana I feel confident about winning the regular season still in this last weekend, but am having a little doubt creep in.
Aaron Fitt
2:22
I still think the Terps should be OK for an at-large bid if they win the regular-season title, which is something the committee typically places significant value on. Also the fact that Maryland has won 10 straight weekends should really carry some weight, helping overcome a borderline RPI.
holden dryden
2:24
How much longer can LSU's offense cushion the blows for the bullpen's lack of execution.
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