JotCast | D1Baseball Weekly Chat: May 12

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D1Baseball Weekly Chat: May 12

Aaron Fitt

12:03

Hi everybody -- hard to believe we only have weekend left in the regular season. It's crunch time, for real. Let's dive in -- KR will be along in a bit.

Brendan

12:05

Is it a must win weekend for West Virginia against KU in order for them to hold onto a hosting spot?

Aaron Fitt

12:05

I think probably so -- the RPI is down to No. 24 now, so if they lose a home series to Kansas, I think their hosting chances are probably gone. But if they take two of three this weekend, I still think they wind up hosting. Big weekend!

Matt M

12:10

A lot of top teams seem to have bullpen issues. Even some of the teams that have 1-2 really solid and reliable guys in there don't seem to have a ton of depth. Is there anyone out there who you think has a really strong bullpen, top-to-bottom (not just one great closer and one great middle reliever)?

Aaron Fitt

12:10

This is a really excellent question, Matt. And you're right -- it does feel like a lot of top contenders have significant questions in the bullpen. Also totally agree with your point about there being plenty of teams that have 2 guys they really trust, and then a bunch of uncertainty. Coastal Carolina's bullpen jumps out to me, just for the dominant duo of Ryan Lynch and Dominick Carbone surrounded by some really good quality depth -- they have five other guys beyond that top two with at least 14 appearances and ERAs below 4. That's loud right now. I still like UNC's bullpen quite a bit, even though it hurt to lose Matthew Mattijs to injury, and I always harbor a bit of reservation about teams that rely too much on freshmen — which three of UNC's top arms are. Northeastern leads the country in ERA and has a GREAT bullpen also. I love the depth of talent in Arkansas' bullpen, even though there have been occasional bumps for that group.

Brooks

12:13

So I have a wild hypothetical for y’all. If Alabama was to win the series at Florida, I’m sure that would seal the deal for a host. However, if they were to go one and let’s say make it to the semi’s in Hoover, would they be considered for a top 8 national seed. Is it likely (probably not) but that’s why it called a hypothetical.

Aaron Fitt

12:13

So you're asking, can Bama make a run at the top 8 by taking two of three at Florida (to get to 17-13 in the SEC) and winning a couple games in Hoover? I'll tell you, everything still feels so wide open right now, and Bama does have that No. 8 RPI, which would only be strengthened by a road series win at Florida. Yeah, I think that would give them a real shot at a top 8.

Rigsby

12:17

With Southern Miss on their current winning streak, why have they had very little movement in the rankings? I get the competition aspect but the streak combined with the recent offensive output and pitching performances should account for something...

Aaron Fitt

12:17

Yeah, it's just that they've won four straight series against teams outside the top 100 in the RPI, so they just haven't had an opportunity for a real "statement" weekend to move up the rankings, like some other teams have that have jumped over USM at times. But the winning streak does have our attention -- and I'm planning to cover that big showdown series at Troy this weekend. I think Southern Miss is once again shaping up as a very dangerous postseason team -- like always. Really amazing how that program always seems to get the most out of its teams down the stretch run, every year.

Guest

12:20

Oregon State and Iowa tied on Sunday do to travel curfew. How does a tie impact OSUs needs report for a top 8 seed? Previously it was they had to win out to have a chance but that tie from an RPI standpoint is .5 win and a .5 loss.

Aaron Fitt

12:20

The Boyd's World RPI Needs Report still says the Beavs can finish in the top 8 by sweeping their last series. Of course that's only a rough estimate, subject to change based on what other teams do, it it's a useful guideline. Finishing in the top 8 in the RPI doesn't necessarily guarantee they'll be a top 8 seed -- that 0-4 record vs. Oregon remains problematic, in my mind... but if they do finish top 8, they certainly have a legit shot at it. It is really such a fascinating case, and we'll break it down in plenty of detail in this afternoon's Nerdcast, I'm sure.

Dawg

12:22

Anything new on the Mississippi State coaching search? Would someone like Bakich have any interest or is his buyout too steep?

Kendall Rogers

12:22

From what I know from talking to sources as close as you can get to the situation, none of the candidates I have mentioned are a total no-go for MSU just yet. I would expect Selmon to dive heavily into the search in the next week -- and put MSU in a position to move quickly when the time arrives.

12:22

i think Florida might be a potential host..am i wrong?

Aaron Fitt

12:22

You're not wrong, JJ! They have managed to climb from outside the bubble into the hosting mix. They're 13-14 in the league now with a No. 13 RPI. I think if they sweep Alabama at home, they host. If they take 2 of 3, they'll probably still need a nice little run in Hoover, but they'll have a shot.

Joe

12:24

Love the coverage of this site fellas. Well worth the subscription and I tell I my friends about D1. What does Duke need to do to host a regional? Feels like they’ve made up some serious ground. Thanks!

Kendall Rogers

12:24

Joe -- I still think it would take a GT series win and some wins in the ACC tourney for Duke to host. Right now the RPI is at 31, and there are just too many contenders ahead of the Blue Devils as of right now. Things could change in the next week, however.

Jacob

12:24

Kansas State obviously did itself a big favor by winning their series against West Virginia. What’s the postseason outlook with the Cats and Cincinnati? They play each other in the season finale.

Aaron Fitt

12:24

Both are looking pretty good right now, with mid-30s RPIs and winning records in the Big 12. I think if Cincinnati takes two of three at home this weekend, both teams get in. If K-State wins 2 of 3, UC might be sweating just a bit, but I still like their chances, given their RPI and some of their impressive high-end series wins, and a .500 record in the Big 12 feels sufficent.

Guest

12:26

Cal Poly: In or out?

Kendall Rogers

12:26

Guest -- I think Cal Poly should be in the field as of today, but I would be lying if I said I wasn't worried about its status on Selection Monday. The RPI will just keep trending down with a series coming up against UCR. Right now, the Mustangs are 44 in the RPI and do not have a series win over a team that will sniff the postseason. That's an issue.

Brent

12:29

As a native Omahan, cold weather baseball will always have a special place in my heart. But at one point does the committee think it’s a bridge too far to award Iowa for a 189 non-con SOS, which at best has a tie against OSU and a single win against USF and also features 2 games (one was cancelled) against non-D1 opponents?

Aaron Fitt

12:29

It's a tough one! I do think winning the Big Ten matters, if they can pull that off -- that would probably get them in with a 60ish RPI, even despite that NSOS you mentioned. And I'm certainly sympathetic to the challenges facing a cold-weather team that is geographically isolated, and there for quite limited with its midweek options. But that means they really have to make hay in their nonconference weekends, and losing 3 of 4 on a neutral field against a Washington State team that is 18-32 overall feels problematic... and then they had a golden opportunity to really give their case a huge jolt this weekend against Oregon State in front of lots of fans in Des Moines, and they couldn't win a game. So yeah.... their resumé feels a little light. It's a fascinating case, and ultimately I think it boils down to this weekend against Oregon. Win that series and I suspect they play their way in, despite the warts.

Jeffrey

12:29

What are the chances DBU hosts a regional?

Kendall Rogers

12:29

Jeffrey -- a lot better than they were a couple of weeks ago. The Patriots are playing a good brand of baseball, sitting at 20 in the RPI and now have a multi-game lead atop the Conference USA standings. Their case was a bit more problematic when they were not leading C-USA. I think I'd still have DBU behind TCU in my hosting pecking order, but the case is much better today than it was a few days ago.

AZKid

12:30

How is Arizona Baseball hosting still after that horrible games lately, can that host be moved to another Arizona team “ The Arizona State

Kendall Rogers

12:30

Arizona State and Arizona will both be hitting the road for the NCAA tournament -- at least the first round. ASU is all the way down at 45 in the RPI and Arizona is down to 41. Both pretty solid teams, but will be on the road for the regional round.

Derek

12:32

Does Iowa have to take the series against Oregon this weekend for any chance at an NCAA bid?

Kendall Rogers

12:32

Derek -- I wouldn't say they HAVE to, but I think the case for Iowa being in the tournament is pretty weak if it doesn't win that series. As of right now, Iowa doesn't have a single series win over a team that will sniff the NCAA tournament as of today + non-conference series losses to South Florida and Washington State. I think Iowa is a good club, but not a ton of meat on the bone.

RPI Sucks!

12:32

If we all realize RPI is a flawed metric. Why is that the cornerstone of what we use to determine host sites?

Aaron Fitt

12:32

I mean I think EVERY metric is flawed, is the thing -- if there were one infallible formula we could rely upon, we could just let the computers pick the field and not bother having any of these debates. That said, the RPI's flaws are well documented, and the committee has at least (finally!) taken steps toward improving the process, first by incorporating the KPI last year, and we think there's a real chance that DSR becomes part of the process soon, perhaps even next year. The committee has shown an interest in modernizing the process, and that's encouraging. But for now, RPI is still king (even if the power of its monarchy is showing signs of crumbling), so that's what we have to go by.

Nolan

12:36

If LSU takes 2/3 at South Carolina and a win or so in Hoover, do you believe they will be the #1 overall seed on Selection Monday?

Aaron Fitt

12:36

Gosh, this question is way more difficult than it feels like it should be this late in the season -- who the heck is going to be the No. 1 overall seed? Honestly it still feels wide open. Texas is STILL in first place, two games ahead of Arkansas and three ahead of LSU, and Texas does have the head-to-head edge over LSU, but not over Arkansas. Georgia and Auburn are ahead of all of them in the RPI, but behind in the standings. LSU is down at No. 7 in the RPI right now, which would be historically low for a No. 1 national seed, I suspect. I think LSU is deserving of being ranked No. 1 in our rankings, but the metrics don't love their case as much as our Top 25 methodology. So I would stop short of saying a series win vs. SC and a one in Hoover would get them the No. 1 national seed; that frankly might not be enough.

FittsMagic

12:36

Yes, Texas is at the top of the SEC standings, but do the Longhorns feel like a diminishing product right now? It feels like most #2 seeds would choose Austin over the next 4-5 SEC schools...

Kendall Rogers

12:36

I think I'll be a little concerned about Texas if it goes on the road and once again doesn't do much offensively against Oklahoma. Riojas didn't look very good over the weekend, but otherwise the Longhorns did what was needed to be done from a pitching standpoint. I feel like the offense is starting to slip a bit.... maybe the book is finally out on some of these guys? At any rate, I would not want to enter the postseason having lost three-straight series if I'm Texas. Big weekend ahead from a confidence standpoint.

Austin

12:37

If NC State does win the ACC regular season title with an RPI still in the 20s, what does the committee do with that in terms of hosting? Normally the RS champ of the No. 2 conference would be an obvious host, but that team usually wouldn't have this type of RPI complication.

Aaron Fitt

12:37

I still think winning the ACC regular-season title carries enough weight that the Wolfpack would definitely host in that scenario, even with an RPI outside the top 20. There have been occasional cases of regular-season champs in major conferences posting with RPIs outside the top 20, and I think that would happen here as well.

Heel

12:38

For UNC and a top-8, does it come down to whether they win the series at FSU? Going 1-2 in Tallahassee and a good showing in Durham could do it as well, but a series win at FSU would put them in a strong position as the RPI would certainly rise from its current 11th position.

Aaron Fitt

12:38

I think you've got it pegged perfectly.

Jose

12:38

Outside of your projected top 8 national seeds, what team is a dark horse this postseason?

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