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D1Baseball Weekly Chat: March 6
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Aaron Fitt
12:38
Hey gang, lots of action this weekend, we'll do our best to process it here. Let's dive in.
Ed
12:40
Given the season is early and RPI will smooth out over time, how does Louisville have a terrific undefeated weekend and see their RPI drop significantly while teams they beat see their RPI rise. Is the RPI meaningful as a tool to evaluate teams?
Kendall Rogers
12:40
Ed -- RPI means absolutely nothing at this point in the season. I wouldn't even look at it and there's a reason why we don't release it until the end of March at the earliest. I was ultra-impressed with the Cardinals over the weekend. The offensive lineup was terrific and I wanted to see how the weekend rotation performed. Ryan Hawks was great against A&M, Greg Farone threw well against TCU and Carson Liggett shined against Michigan. For at least this past weekend, U of L looked like a national title contender for me.
Tyler
12:43
Georgia Southern took a series win on the road at UCF, and heading into a big week with two games against UGA and a weekend home series vs Rutgers. At 7-4 so far this season, what are your thoughts on GSU?
Aaron Fitt
12:43
Yeah that was a big series win for the Eagles against a team that had been off to a really good start. Feels like this will be a very competitive pitching staff once again, with Ty Fisher and Ben Johnson leading the way -- those guys have been great, and I still expect super-talented Zachary Harris to find his footing and be an impact guy this year, because that's a real arm. Harris and Jaylen Paden have the best stuff on the staff, and once they really get going, this team will only get better. Good, balanced position player group with experience, athleticism and some pop led by everybody's favorite thumper Noah Ledford. Good club, not far outside the top 25 for me.
Corey
12:43
Texas Tech dropped out of your poll, yet have only dropped two games all year, basically road games in Houston, and one being vs a ranked team in 16 fun innings.  What are you seeing that you dislike in Tech, when you know the history and strength of the program?
Kendall Rogers
12:43
Corey -- It's a one-weekend sample size so I'll need to see more, but one of the questions I had coming into the season was who would be kind of that superstar slugger for Texas Tech this year? Timmy Tads always has 'that' guy. This lineup doesn't seem to have that guy *yet*. Most years, I feel like Tech has a lineup that is pretty terrifying. I did not see a terrifying lineup this past weekend. On a side note, I was very encouraged by the bullpen against A&M. Beckel, Free and Robinson were fabulous, I thought. Tech is not far away from being a very good team, but I do have some question marks as the moment.
TarHeel408
12:46
How about Jackson Van De Brake? Could he be the biggest surprise in the ACC with his unexpected power?
Aaron Fitt
12:46
Definitely a surprise to me -- I expected Van De Brake to bring strong defense to the middle of the UNC infield, and I figured any offense he provided would be a bonus. Definitely didn't see six homers in 11 games coming. He takes really good at-bats too -- just liked everything I saw from his offensive game last weekend, and he keeps rolling.
Jared Hassell
12:46
Is there a team that D1 is re-evaluating for Omaha based upon preseason rankings, three weeks into the season?
Kendall Rogers
12:46
Jared - I have some question marks on A&M. The Aggies deserve to be No. 15 for now, but they're living life on the edge. I have zero doubt they will pitch at a high level this season, but some of their offensive approaches so far this season have been less than stellar to say the least. With that said, guys like Austin Bost and Ryan Targac, along with Jack Moss, have been consistent producers in the past, so chances are very good they'll get in a groove at some point - probably sooner rather than later. But I'd definitely have A&M behind teams like Louisville, etc, right now.
Gary
12:49
What's going on with Texas baseball?  They are 4-7 and lost their weekend series to Cal State Fullerton?
Kendall Rogers
12:49
Texas just looks like a really average baseball team right now. The pitching is just OK and the offensive lineup is just OK at best. One thing that is hurting them offensively is the fact that Dylan Campbell, whom we all thought would take a big step forward, is hitting .143 with very limited offensive production. For Texas to contend for the Big 12 at all, Campbell is going to have to step it up at the plate. I do really like some of the things Peyton Powell is doing at the plate, though. He's been a surprise for me.
Brady F
12:50
Outside of the mid-major schools currently in the top 25 what mid-major schools would you consider top 25 caliber? Furthermore do you see teams like UC Irvine, GCU, Texas State making a serious run towards Omaha?
Aaron Fitt
12:50
UC Irvine was very, very strongly in our discussion for the Top 25 this week -- hated leaving those guys out, that's a nice body of work they've put together. Grand Canyon is also still right there on the edge of the rankings, as they have been since the preseason. Other teams that I think could wind up as Top 25 types at some point this season include Louisiana, Texas State and Troy (my preseason sleeper pick, off to an 11-0 start). The Sun Belt looks rugged this year!
JimmyGeez
12:52
It's early, but can you breakdown what the Big 10 has done for itself in terms of hosting later in the year? Is it only Iowa with hopes, or does that win in Oxford help Maryland some? Please tell me the conference just beat itself up again...
Kendall Rogers
12:52
Iowa and Illinois have put themselves in a pretty good position early this year -- and even though the Hawkeyes played Wake Forest and lost both games, those games will only help their RPI as the season progresses (Wake is going to win a lot of games). Maryland's margin for error in remaining non-conference weekends is not great, Rutgers has put itself in a huge hole, and Nebraska has been much improved since the USD debacle (Ole Miss game withstanding).
Spencer
12:52
What is going on with the Terps so far this season? Their pitching (especially bullpen) seems to have struggled mightily against some solid competition. Is this still a team that could host a regional?
Aaron Fitt
12:52
I know our staff has had some concerns about Maryland's pitching depth since the fall -- we really like the top of that staff, but then there are a lot of question marks. Right now, we haven't seen anything to alleviate that question mark. And some of the guys we expected to produce in the lineup beyond Shaw and Shliger have just gotten off to slow starts, but I think they'll pick it up. They have played a very good schedule as you point out, and I suspect they will be better for it in the long run. Look for the Terps to make a run quickly, as long as their pitching holds up.
CWS Fan
12:54
Now that we are a couple weekends into the college baseball season, who do you think is the most underrated team (or teams), and most overrated team (or teams)?
Kendall Rogers
12:54
A&M is hanging on by a thread at 15. Had the Aggies gone 1-2 again this past weekend, they were going to be (again) punished harshly. I want to see way more out of that offensive lineup. As for 'underrated', UCLA is a team that when I look at where we have them ranked, I have them a little higher from a personal standpoint. I think that's a really good team.
Beavs AB
12:56
How strong is the Pac-11 this year? Some good results out of teams projected towards the bottom of the conference, some stumbles from teams closer to the top. What do you make of it heading into conference play this weekend?
Aaron Fitt
12:56
Stanford and UCLA appear to be legit Omaha contenders as expected, so no surprise at the top. Oregon had a hiccup last weekend against UCSB, getting swept, but bounced back strong to sweep USD in a four-game set. I still believe the Ducks will be right there in the top three or four of the league when it's all said and done, I remain very high on that position player group. Oregon State has fared well with a young club so far, love their bullpen and the athleticism of the lineup, we'll see how the rotation holds up. Not the strongest schedule so far but you can't complain about 9-2. Washington State looks like the surprise team at 10-1 but light on quality wins, so we'll find out a lot more about the Cougars this weekend in Corvallis. Overall, I like the Pac this year -- even Cal struck me as a potential regional team this weekend, and I know Roons like Arizona. Feels like the league is deeper this year than it has been, and still has high-end contenders at the top.
TheFanatic
12:56
Do yall have any predictions on which club from the SunBelt will join Southern Miss in the top 25 next? After the Cajuns dropped 2/3 to the Humps the magic 8 ball has to be saying Troy I imagine.
Kendall Rogers
12:56
TF -- Troy would be the team. Skyler Meade's club is 11-0 and they actually have a massive series at home this weekend against FGCU, which took a series from FSU on the road this past weekend. Win that series and the Trojans will get a strong look at the T25, IMO.
WC_Drew
12:59
Given that the Big West is much improved overall as a conference, do you guy still think they'll be a one bid league come May?
Kendall Rogers
12:59
WC -- at this point, I would have to predict that UCSB and UC Irvine both make the postseason. I think both of those teams certainly have staying power. We were very close to ranking UCI this week. Long Beach State is coming off a terrific showing at the LeClair Classic, so watch out for them. I also think Fullerton is infinitely better, but how much better? We'll see.
SDSouthpaw
12:59
Is it time to push the panic button in Spokane?  How is their brutal schedule going to help their cause come June?
Aaron Fitt
12:59
You know I hate panic buttons in February... but now it's March 6, and Gonzaga is 1-10. That is a rough spot, I think it's fair to say. At this point, you can throw an at-large bid out the window, but I am still not ready to dismiss Gonzaga's chances to win the WCC and make a regional via the auto bid. But man, the sledding doesn't get much easier this weekend with a series against UC Irvine. If Gonzaga had held its own a little better in these first three weeks, this brutal early schedule would be a big help if they found themselves on the bubble in June. Instead, they are in too deep of a hole, but at least they should benefit later from facing premium competition -- I believe playing good teams always makes you better. These losses will help Gonzaga know what it needs to fix.
LopesUp
1:01
What more does GCU need to do to be ranked?
Aaron Fitt
1:01
Just stay the course. They've gotten off to a strong start, but right now their resumé is really build around one win against Tennessee and now taking two of three from Texas State. Those Gonzaga wins aren't doing much for them given Gonzaga's 1-10 start, and Ohio State is still below .500 despite winning in Frisco. So GCU's resumé is good but it's not a slam-dunk Top 25 resumé yet. But clearly we like the Lopes, we talk about them a lot and have since the preseason. They remain right on the edge of the rankings, along with a number of other worthy teams. There are just only so many spots.
DUBking
1:04
Thoughts on DBU after 4 tough competitive losses to TCU and Southern Miss
Aaron Fitt
1:04
I think you kinda said it there -- those were tough, competitive games. DBU is pitching well, but its offense got shut down by two clubs that also have very good pitching. No shame in that 0-4 week, even though you'd obviously rather win some of those games. After three weeks, I feel pretty good about DBU's chances to contend for the C-USA title. It's a good league, and should be a good race between DBU, UTSA, La Tech, FAU and Charlotte (despite a rough weekend for the 49ers, who are 5-7, I believe they will make a run). WKU is also off to a strong start. C-USA could wind up getting a bunch of bids, especially if Rice and UAB can continue to be respectable, keeping from being RPI drags at the bottom of the league.
Spencer
1:06
What have been the most impressive true freshman so far this season? Any surprises?
Aaron Fitt
1:06
I'm all-in on Oregon State's Gavin Turley, have been since I saw him hit a couple bombs against Gonzaga in the fall. That dude is super tooled up, and he is living up to his billing so far with premium performance. One surprise that comes to mind for me is Mississippi State's Bryce Chance, a guy I write about in my column today (which will be posted shortly). Just a 5-foot-10 baseball rat who has found himself in the 3-hole for Mississippi State, and he keeps on producing, hitting .385 with 13 RBIs. Just a guy who is top of mind for me after Frisco.
Bucky
1:08
Can South Carolina win the SEC East?  They've looked really good so far this year.  I'd put them right there with Florida as being the most impressive in the East so far.
Aaron Fitt
1:08
If I'm betting, I'm still going to bet on Tennessee or Florida, both of whom look like leading contenders for the national title. But I agree that South Carolina looks dramatically improved, as we figured the Gamecocks would be. Feels like a team that can and will host a regional, regardless of whether it can win the East (and I still think that feels like a bit of a stretch, considering how good the Vols and Gators are). Wouldn't surprise me to see the Gamecocks finish third ahead of Vandy, though.
Jason Legweak
1:10
Has LSU sorta underachieved, based on all of the hype?
Kendall Rogers
1:10
Jason -- I wouldn't say so. The Tigers had that stinker against Iowa, but otherwise have been pretty good to say the least. Status quo. Tennessee is another team I think is elite, but again, even they have a stinker from that Arizona trip a couple of weeks ago. The only team out there really mauling everyone is Wake Forest, but you also have to remember that outside of Illinois twice, it's been an outrageously bad schedule.
FittsMagic
1:10
Stanford has feasted off of a cupcake schedule to start, but in some ways the pitching still might have questions? How narrow is the gap between them and UCLA?
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