JotCast | D1Baseball Weekly Chat: March 31

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D1Baseball Weekly Chat: March 31

Aaron Fitt

12:03

Hi everybody -- I'm going to serve as our opener this week, and Kendall will hop in to work the later innings. Let's dive in!

PIGS

12:05

Who has the most impressive 8-1 SEC record?

Aaron Fitt

12:05

I think just looking at the opponents, I'd have to go with Arkansas -- two series wins on the road against ranked opponents (Ole Miss and a sweep at Vandy), plus a dominant home sweep of South Carolina. I think that's the most impressive body of work through three SEC weekends of any of the 8-1 teams.

Timothy (WV)

12:07

I truly do Not understand how WVU is Not Ranked at this point!? I know the non-conference schedule was week, but West Virginia went 2-2 against Oklahoma State and Arizona, and one of those 2 losses was in 16 Innings.. WVU then Won their first conference Road series while the bats exploded, and is now sitting at 22-4 overall on the season.. What must they do to become ranked by the D1Baseball crew!?

Aaron Fitt

12:07

Well, only playing one game against Oklahoma State hurt them -- it would be louder if they won a full weekend series against OSU, but even then, OSU has not been very good so that wouldn't carry a TON of weight. The best team they faced was Arizona, and they lost that series, even though they didn't get swept. They have yet to win a series against a likely regional team, so I suppose that's what is keeping them out of the rankings. That said, I talked a bunch about WVU on the podcast today -- I really like their roster and believe they are a team that will be in the Top 25 sooner rather than later, and I think they're capable of doing some damage in the postseason.

Mark M

12:09

Georgia showed it could score in different ways other than the HR this weekend even without usual speed in their lineup from Phelps and Black. Seems like a good omen before heading to the Disch. They also pitched really well once again with the new role for Curley and finally having a healthy Kolten Smith who was supposed to start opening day. The bullpen is still as good as anyone in the country.

Aaron Fitt

12:09

Yeah I like the way those pieces are coming together on the mound -- I've been saying all year that I thought it was only a matter of time until Georgia's pitching came together and became high-end, because they are super deep. I share your enthusiasm for the bullpen now that Kolten Smith looks like himself again. I remain really, really high on this Georgia club.

JEL

12:10

UC Irvine offense is rolling. If Anteater pitching tightens up, the post season prospects look promising. Oregon State series at Goss/Coleman should be a showcase of West Coast baseball prowess.

Aaron Fitt

12:10

Agreed! Irvine made it clear last week that it is the class of the Big West when it swept UCSB on the road. Beavers and Eaters both feel like Omaha-caliber clubs to me; that is going to be a super fun series at Goss. Big measuring stick for both clubs.

Bob

12:12

The Coastal Carolina pitching this weekend was remarkable: 21.1ip, 0bb, 26ks, 2er. In SBC play, their three starters each have a sub 1.00 WHIP . Two questions. 1) How far can CCU go? 2) If the SBC Toutney.title comes down to CCU and USM, who ya' got?

Aaron Fitt

12:12

Coastal's pitching has come together better than I expected -- really like those three weekend arms and I think they've got enough in the bullpen. It doesn't feel like quite as fearsome a lineup as we're used to seeing from Coastal, but I think it's still very solid, and the pitching staff is better than it has been in recent years. I think that's a winning combination in this era, when it's hard to find teams with reliable pitching. Would love to see Coastal and USM battle it out -- no idea who I'd take at this point. Both teams feel legit.

RazorSaint

12:15

Who’s been the biggest surprise for Arkansas this season—one of the Aloy brothers or someone else? For me it has to be Charles Davalan.

Aaron Fitt

12:15

Personally I really liked what I saw from Davalan back in Week Two at Globe Life, even though his numbers weren't great at that time -- I felt like he was going to have a great year, because he was already taking great at-bats and can hit the ball hard. Kuhio has been awesome, better even than I expected even though I loved the power tool from the jump. But Wehiwa is the guy who has opened my eyes the most -- after his somewhat pedestrian season a year ago, I wasn't sure he was going to be an elite SEC player, and he sure as heck is. Good for him turning himself from a good player to one of the best players in the country. His approach is so much better this year, and he has made some jaw-dropping plays on defense. Just better across the board.

James

12:17

Curious to hear your guys’ thoughts on the situation USM finds itself in. Strong start to the season against what seemed like a good nonconference schedule at the time, however, the RPI is way down in the mid 50’s. With more land mines ahead than RPI boosters, could USM be fighting to get into at large spot much less hosting range?

Aaron Fitt

12:17

I still think those series wins against La Tech (which has played a lot better since then), TCU and UNCW will age pretty well -- all three of those teams look like they are capable of having better second halves than first halves. You're right that Southern Miss is probably fighting an uphill battle against the RPI when it comes to hosting, but as long as this team keeps taking care of business against the teams it is supposed to beat, I think it will be a rock-solid at-large team, as the floor. And I still think hosting is very much still in play. It's still pretty early to put TOO much stock in current RPI.

A-Man

12:20

Any chance Louisiana gets back into the at large picture? Back to back series wins, and they may keep winning conference series. I just don’t think they did enough out of conference. The SOS is great, but needed more than 2 Q1 wins. Thoughts?

Aaron Fitt

12:20

I would feel better about UL's chances if there were more games ahead against stronger RPI opponents; right now it feels like there just isn't a lot of opportunity for them to make a splash, aside from the Southern Miss series. But the fact that they're still lurking inside the top 80 of the RPI despite that rough start and below .500 record is encouraging. They're certainly still in the at-large hunt, but they need to stay hot and make a serious run. We do like their talent, however, and think they are capable of doing just that. Won't be easy, however. Little margin for error.

Guest

12:22

How do you feel about NC State’s chances of hosting a regional?

Aaron Fitt

12:22

I still think the Wolfpack control their own destiny -- there are loads of opportunities for that club to boost its RPI ahead in ACC play. I still think if they can get to 16 or 17 ACC wins, the RPI will take care of itself and they'll be right there in the hosting mix. The next two weekends are critical -- quality opponents in Virginia and Louisville (plus a midweeker at ECU), and both those weekend series are at home. They probably need to win both of those, but if they do they'll be tracking pretty well.

Terry

12:22

Percent chances that Texas A&M makes a regional?

Kendall Rogers

12:22

Terry -- I'd put it at about 25%. Any team with that much talent can go on a run, but on our Podcast this morning, I had the Aggies getting swept at Tennessee, sweeping Missouri, taking 2/3 from South Carolina and taking one each from Arkansas, Georgia, LSU and Texas. That would still only get the Aggies to 10 conference wins. That's not going to come close, especially considering the relatively poor non-conference slate.

Big Easy

12:24

Guys My tier 1 elite teams in the SEC rote now is Tenn Arkansas Georgia Texas, good gosh the dawgs look 4 real. Always great content fellas Thanks !!!!

Aaron Fitt

12:24

Yup I think that's certainly the top tier, but I'd also include LSU in that tier, even though it is a game behind in the standings and lost the head to head series at UT. Those teams have separated themselves from the pack for me. Alabama has proven it can play with anybody but for me their roster is just a tick behind those top five.

Dawg

12:24

Mississippi State is 1-8 to start SEC play, do you guys think we could see a mid-season coaching change in Starkville? Also, if State were to make a coaching change do you think they can pull a sitting P4 coach?

Kendall Rogers

12:24

I would be floored if MSU would do anything but the see the season out -- I also think you accomplish nothing by making a change midseason. Yes, everyone looks at Rice and goes SEE THEY DID IT -- but that is 100% a different situation than any other program in the country right now given Pierce's previous role at Texas State. MSU is obviously in a tough spot, but let the season play out. If MSU does decide to make some sort of change, I would expect it to go after some solid candidates. Nick Mingione, for instance, would be an obvious phone call, among others. But again, we can cross that bridge when AND if we get there. I'm never throwing in the towel on anyone in Week 8.

BigTex

12:26

Texas vs. Georgia in Austin this weekend. Might be too early to say this, but is this a potential series with top-8 national seed implications?

Kendall Rogers

12:26

Most certainly it is given where the two teams are in the Top 25 Rankings right now (and in the RPI). I think it's more likely right now that both teams are in the Top 8, however, at season's end. I probably lean Texas at home in this one, but I do want to see what the prognosis is with Belyeu, Rodriguez and Galvan before making an official prediction. As important as Max and Adrian are to that team, Galvan is the heartbeat.

CHANDLER

12:26

How bout them Huskers? I guess that's one way to try and turnaround their season. Hopefully that's what happens..

Aaron Fitt

12:26

Obviously Nebraska sorely needed that series win against the Beavers, and suddenly you look up and they've jumped 44 spots in the RPI. Potentially season-saving — but only if they can stay red-hot. They're still just 12-15 overall. They've got a long way to go -- but again, we like the roster. There's a reason this was a preseason Top 25 team. Even without Mason McConaughey, they are capable of making a serious run and sneaking into a regional. Definitely still an uphill battle, but perhaps this weekend will be a springboard for them.

Mateo

12:27

Over/Under 2.5 Big West teams make a regional?

Kendall Rogers

12:27

Give me three. UCI, Cal Poly and one of UCSB or Hawaii.

Jack

12:27

Sun Belt with 3 teams in the top 25! With Southern Miss (13), Troy (20) and Coastal (21)...can you see two of these three teams hosting? Coastal with an RPI of 6, Troy at 20 and Southern Miss at 55.

Aaron Fitt

12:27

I think it's possible for two of the three to host, but if I were a betting man I'd say it's probably unlikely, because there's a big dropoff in the Sun Belt after those top three, and I think it won't be easy for all those teams to maintain their robust RPIs. But they all seem like legit regional hosting-caliber teams. It's just a matter of whether the math works out for more than one of them to host.

Lovesbaseball

12:30

Has there ever been this many shortstops on a college team...NOT PLAYING SHORTSTOP?
Let's review.
Tennessee Volunteers.
2nd Base Gavin Kilen? Shortstop
3rd Base Manny Marin? Shortstop
Left Field Abernathy? Shortstop
Kilen hamstring issue...so NOW....
Shortstop Dean Curley now at 3rd
Shortstop Marin, at third, now at 2nd
Cirque du Soleil's Ariel Antigua, last year sidelined with injury, an original shortstop, now at short and performing like a Vegas act
Even first base Fischer who is actually a third baseman....
Which brings us to...Tony Vitello SOMEHOW, so far, has managed to keep these kids on board with the team concept when there are SO MANY more ...so much deep talent...Levi Clark...a top ranked catcher out of high school...not even catching...
I mean, come on...it goes on and on...
So, back to the original question, has there ever been so many shortstops not playing short in college ball AND how unusual is it to have a happy team with too much talent?
And THEY STAY AT TN...and so do the coaches.
Let's g

Aaron Fitt

12:30

Really impressive how the Tennessee coaching staff has managed that roster -- you're right, a lot of very talented high-profile guys have bought in completely to the team-first concept and are willing to play wherever and whenever they get an opportunity. Crazy how loaded the Vols are, that they can go a couple weeks without Kilen (who had been their best player for the first month) and not even skip a beat.

Jacob

12:30

How close is Kansas State to hosting territory? Would that require winning the conference and is the Big 12 going to be lacking bids this year?

Kendall Rogers

12:30

If the season ended today, I'd probably lean toward someone like Kansas State being a Top 16 host. The reason being? KSU leads the Big 12 and has a Top 18 RPI. Much like Arizona last season, I think the conference leader would likely host if the RPI is somewhat within range of the Top 16. Fascinating.

Bill

12:32

Gaeckle made the kind of start that Hog fans have been looking for. Not exceptional, but much more on par with expectations. With that in mind, Gage Wood is close to returning, so if it's you, what do you do with the rotation? Big Cheese has been pretty solid on Sundays, and Root is entrenched on Friday's now. I guess it's a good problem to have, but somebody is going to the pen and may not be happy...

Aaron Fitt

12:32

I think I'd probably be inclined to leave the rotation as it was this weekend and ease Wood into a bullpen role, then adjust as needed. Agreed that Gaeckle's performance this weekend was extremely encouraging! They're going to need him to perform up to his immense talent if they are going to make a run at a national title.

Birdman 25

12:32

Can you advise as to when the next set of post season projections will be released ? Thanks for the hard work all you guys do to keep us up to date on the world of college baseball .

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