JotCast | D1Baseball Weekly Chat: March 18

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D1Baseball Weekly Chat: March 18

Aaron Fitt

1:01

Hello friends, let's pull up our socks and get after it.

Hog Fan

1:05

What was it about Florida State that kept them out of the rankings until this week? According to D1’s 2024 and 2025 draft boards, they have as much talent as Wake and the top-level SEC schools.

Aaron Fitt

1:05

I talked about this last week, but just to reiterate since we've been catching a lot of heat from the resuscitated FSU fan base: We all believed the Seminoles would be much better this year, that's why we projected them to be a regional team this year coming off a dead-last finish in the ACC last year. But we needed to see them prove it a little bit because they were just so bad last year, so that's why they started unranked. And when you're unranked, you generally have to win a series against a postseason-caliber club to break into the rankings. Just racking up victories against the lesser competition FSU steamrolled in the first four weeks doesn't really tell us that much (see: Georgia's comeuppance this weekend. There are countless examples of teams that race out to unbeaten starts for four weeks, then wilt when the competition gets real). Now at least FSU has a midweek win at Florida and a sweep of an ACC team (albeit a bottom-tier ACC team). And 18-0 is certainly loud, regardless of SOS. So they're in.

Aaron Fitt

1:06

Sounds like Kendall is running behind so I'll grab the first half today and then he'll take y'all home for the second half-hour.

Joe

1:09

Mississippi State. How did this weekend affect what your expectations is for this team going forward?

Aaron Fitt

1:09

It showed me a whole lot, Joe. Frankly I didn't know what to make of MSU the first four weeks; they won every weekend, and it looked like their pitching was very good against a veteran Evansville club, so I was cautiously optimistic, but seeing them in person for two games this weekend, I walked away thinking they are a legit Top 25-caliber club (and I'll have a piece with my full impressions later today or tomorrow). The pitching is dramatically better -- I think they have good depth on the mound, lots of power arms, and I am actually quite high on all three starters, even though Stephens got lit up Saturday -- his stuff was good, and Cijntje was electric, with excellent command for four innings. And now the offense is getting rolling -- I saw a ton of competitive at-bats, and that power showed up this weekend too. They play hard, and the fight they showed after falling behind 9-1 early on Saturday spoke volumes to me. I think State is back.

Poll Mechanics

1:13

Did you guys lose your nerve regarding the Seminoles? After all the minutes spent on last week's pod defending their exclusion due to their weak schedule, it strikes an odd chord to run them all the way up to 12th after a home sweep over an 11-8 team who itself has played a soft schedule. Having FSU in the rankings after a week when 15 of the top 25 lost multiple games? Sure. But everyone below them still has multiple more quality wins; that issue, which was so staunchly defended last week, hasn't changed.

Aaron Fitt

1:13

Charlie Baker told Kendall it was time to throw the FSU fans a bone. And KR always does what Charlie tells him, of course.

Nah you're right, FSU still has fewer quality wins than every team ranked behind them in the Top 25. But it was a week with a vacuum in the middle of the rankings because so many teams had bad weeks, so it gave us a chance to jump some teams in. I do agree that FSU jumping in at 12 feels probably too aggressive... perhaps a slight over-correction. We'll learn a whole lot more about the Noles this weekend in Clemson.

Jonathan

1:16

The Big 12 has been... interesting so far. Realistic chance they get no hosts? Especially with so many potential hosts from SEC/ACC?

Aaron Fitt

1:16

Yeah.... interesting feels like a good word for it. It is jarring to see TCU at the very bottom of the standings in this 13-team league. That won't last -- the Frogs are going to make a surge, and I still believe they'll wind up battling for a hosting spot, but they sure are starting out from behind the 8-ball after two weeks of conference play. They made the job a lot harder on themselves. I remain high on Kansas State, and I expect the Wildcats to vie for a hosting spot too -- I think that team will get better and better. Oklahoma just might be the class of the league -- after this weekend, that feels like the logical conclusion. But it's been a weird up-and-down start for all of those teams. Ultimately, I have to imagine the Big 12 finds a way to get at least one host.

CHANDLER

1:19

how bout them Huskers? Another series win/sweep against a decent Nicholls team

Aaron Fitt

1:19

Nebraska was one of the first teams out of our Top 25 this year, along with Southern Miss and a few others. I really like Nebraska's body of work -- those are quality series wins at GCU, at CofC, vs. South Alabama and now vs. Nicholls, which had been 17-3 entering the week and has a legit Friday night arm. Feels like Nebraska has a chance to wind up being the team to beat in the Big Ten, although I'm not ready to pronounce them the clear favorite. Indiana and Iowa have struggled against very robust early-season schedules, but I think both teams will benefit from all those tests as we get into conference play, and I still think those are probably the two most talented teams in the league. But those two plus Nebraska, Maryland and Rutgers (and possibly even this overhauled Penn State club) all feel like legit contenders for regional bids. Patrick Ebert saw the Huskers this weekend and will have plenty more on the site this week.

Mike

1:22

Do you see ECU as a contender for a national seed?

Aaron Fitt

1:22

Certainly. It's too early to put too much stock in the RPI, so I wouldn't fret about ECU being down at No. 26 right now. They put together a nice nonconference schedule, and they have that big series win against UNC. They'll still need to fare well in a lot of their marquee midweek matchups to bolster the resumé, but I also think the American is a better league than it used to be, so winning it should carry more weight, and also help them keep the RPI up. I think ECU has a definite top-8 type club, it's just a matter of maintaining the metrics, always a challenge when you play in a mid-major conference (which the American is, even though we all know ECU is a major program).

charliewt

1:24

Is there a realistic scenario where the Big West gets 3 bids if neither UCI or UCSB wins the auto bid? It seems like a longshot but would be nice to see, especially with the Pac 12 down this year.

Aaron Fitt

1:24

I think if there were a conference tournament this year, I could see that happening -- a third team could win the tourney, and the Gauchos and Eaters could theoretically both get bids. But the Big West tourney doesn't start until 2025, so you'd have to assume either UCSB or Irvine wins the regular-season title to get the auto bid, and the other is an at-large, and that's probably it for the Big West.

Guest

1:26

I don't get the Florida love. No disrespect, but they look like an outside the rankings type team, yet they stay high. Am I missing something?

Kendall Rogers

1:26

By what metric would Florida look like an outside the Top 25 club? It has series wins over Miami (road) and Texas A&M (top five) at home. Sure, the Gators have struggled in a couple of midweek games, but that lineup is pretty deep top to bottom and it looks like they've gotten Brandon Neely right, which is obviously a massive difference maker.

BirminghamEagle

1:27

I see Southern Miss is listed as your first out while Baseball America has them at 25. Does Southern Miss need to beat OM tmo night at neutral site and win the series on the road at Georgia Southern to move into D1Baseball Top 25?

Kendall Rogers

1:27

BEagle - I wouldn't say they HAVE to beat Ole Miss, but given that both teams are in the pecking order area of making it into the Top 25, that obviously could help one team's case one way or the other. With that said, I think I like USM's chances of having a good weekend exponentially more than OM, which has to go to Tennessee. I'd be surprised if the Rebels won that series, if I am being honest.

Daniel

1:28

Is the pitching staff for Arkansas just that much further ahead than every other staff in the country at this point? Or are there other teams who could challenge them?

Aaron Fitt

1:28

My opinion is that yes, Arkansas is leaps and bounds ahead of every other staff in the country, comparable to the way Wake Forest's staff was leaps and bounds above everybody else last year. Wake led the nation in ERA by almost a full run last year, and right now Arkansas (2.35) leads by a half-run over No. 2 Texas A&M (2.81) -- but I think that gap will only widen, because I think Arkansas will continue to pitch at an elite level even against SEC competition, but I think other top staffs will struggle more against better competition. This Arkansas staff checks every box -- a weekend rotation filled with three legit Friday night aces, plus a deep and varied bullpen with lots of options from both sides. Power stuff galore, and they pound the zone (lead the nation in K-BB rate, 4.64 to 1).

Pierson

1:29

Best mid-major early host candidates in your humble opinion?

Kendall Rogers

1:29

Probably Dallas Baptist at this point. There are some others out there as well, but with Texas Tech, Oklahoma State and Texas just looking OK or scuffling, there's a prime opportunity for DBU present. On top of that, I think DBU is a really good club and will rack up a lot of wins in Conference USA and end up having a pretty good resume on Selection Monday. It's early, but DBU is a solid bet at this juncture.

Corey

1:30

Should Hagen Smith continue playing at the level he’s currently playing, what’s the ceiling on his draft stock? I’m sure he might have a rough outing or two in the SEC, but he is dominant right now. Also, do you feel he’s very close to MLB ready now? Thanks gentlemen for all your hard work, D1 is tops in my book!!!

Aaron Fitt

1:30

His ceiling is No. 1 overall, and that might be where he is on my personal board right now. I can't quite decide if I like Hagen or Chase Burns more, but both are elite, top-of-the-draft guys. And yes, if you put either one of them in a big league bullpen tomorrow, they would be able to get big outs, because it's high-end MLB stuff.

Matt M

1:31

Between UT, Tech, and TCU, most likely to still end up hosting a regional, and most likely to miss the field of 64 entirely?

Kendall Rogers

1:31

Matt -- that is a tough question. I would say TCU most likely to go on a run and still host. I might actually say Texas Tech in terms of a team that could miss the field entirely. Texas Tech is just not a very good team right now, where as I actually think Texas has a pretty good offense along with a bonafide front-line ace. It just doesn't have much high-quality pitching depth, but Max Grubbs pitched really well in the rotation over the weekend.

Vol Fan

1:33

After watching Aggies/Florida and Vols/Bama, it seemed to me that teams are WAY ahead of schedule in terms of being so strong and working so well together. Or was I just starving for SEC baseball? It just seemed like teams are way ahead in their improvement...it looked mid to late season to me. SEC is going to be especially great this year with so many tough teams to beat. Correct? Or just overly excited?

Aaron Fitt

1:33

Interesting take, and I think I'm with you -- it felt like a lot of teams around the SEC are already close to peak midseason form. I think Mississippi State and Ole Miss being back to looking like real contenders is a good thing for the league, definitely adds to the depth. Kentucky looks like it will once again be a big factor. It's gonna be a wild ride as usual.

Dr. Pug

1:35

Is it time to hit the panic button w/ LSU's pitching or was this possibly an outlier type of weekend for them?

Kendall Rogers

1:35

I'm not concerned just yet. It was only a couple of weeks ago that I saw LSU's pitching staff dazzle at the Astros Foundation Classic. So, either MSU was just red-hot this past weekend, or the pitching staff has suddenly become an issue. I tend to go with MSU just hit really well. With that said, Hurd still needs to be more consistent. I'm not remotely concerned about Luke Holman. He will be just fine. But it is something I will monitor going into the weekend against UF.

Aaron Fitt

1:38

I'm definitely not concerned about LSU's pitching. Those three weekend starters are all too damn talented to have many weeks like this one -- even in off outings, I saw plenty of stuff from Jump and Hurd this weekend. I still think that will prove to be one of the nation's best rotations, and they've got tons of depth in the bullpen. It's just about building some more experience in the pen (that only comes over time), and in the rotation too for that matter. But the talent level is elite, and Jay and Yeskie will figure out the right combinations as the season progresses. To Kendall's point, I think Mississippi State was just dialed in this weekend, so tip your cap and move on to next week.

FittsMagic

1:36

How concerned should Wake be about its pitching staff? Hartle has hardly looked himself and Massey didn't throw this weekend. It feels like the team lacks identity without Minacci/Lee/Wilken to lead...

Aaron Fitt

1:36

Pretty concerned, I think. I still believe Hartle will get on track -- even last week against Duke, I didn't think there was anything wrong with his stuff, and he's still such an unusual look... but his struggles have been baffling to me. Right now it feels like the Chase Burns game is a win, and every other game is a scratch and claw dog fight for Wake Forest. I agree with your assessment that losing Minacci, Lee, Wilken, Lowder, Keener, Hawke, Cecere, on and on -- those were very significant losses, much bigger than I think a lot of people realized. Everyone just saw that Wake had five preseason All-Americans and assume they'd dominate again. But they were super-deep last year and had a special edge and chemistry, it wasn't just star power. I am worried this year's team just lacks a lot of that other stuff that made last year's team so special.

FittsMagic

1:38

Texas dropped a home series to a bad UW team. Say that UT goes on to win the Big12, what does this weekend (along with the 0-3 showing in Houston) do to the conference as a whole?

Kendall Rogers

1:38

I'm pretty concerned about the Big 12 right now from a resume standpoint. TCU is scuffling in league, Texas has been blah out of conference, Oklahoma State had an ugly weekend at Sam Houston, Oklahoma had a poor showing in Vegas (but did well opening weekend), Kansas State stunk it up during the midweek trip and Kansas now has multiple ugly series losses. Some teams might emerge as the season progresses, but right now, I'm not seeing a league worthy of more than 5-ish bids. I'm sure my outlook will change.

Vol Fan

1:40

Is the lead off hitter for the Aggies really 30 years old?

Kendall Rogers

1:40

He's a freshman .... and yeah, Gavin Grahovac is really good.

Josh

1:40

Fellas, I know you're catching a TON of questions about Florida State as it is, but Cam Leiter and Jamie Arnold have been fantastic for the garnet and gold on the weekends and seeing some encouraging signs from the bullpen (Dorsey, Oxford). Not to mention Whittaker and Armstrong too as starters too. Can you talk about the job Micah Posey is doing down in Tallahassee fellas? To my fellow Noles fan, lets lay off the guys now huh???

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