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D1Baseball Weekly Chat: March 16
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Aaron Fitt
12:31
Hi everybody, let's get after it!
Joe
12:32
Did State hit par over the weekend at Arkansas or fall short dropping 2 of 3?
Aaron Fitt
12:32
I think that's a solid par. Never easy to win a road series in the SEC, and especially against a top-five opponent, I think winning 1 game and playing a very close competitive series is very solid work.
Andrew
12:34
Buy or Sell: Sun Belt could have three host sites this postseason.
Aaron Fitt
12:34
Sell. I think two is certainly a possibility and at least one is a lock -- all of us remain very high on Southern Miss. Certainly I think there's a chance that either Coastal or Louisiana gets a second one, but there's a long way to go. If I had to bet today, I'd say ultimately USM is the only host, given Coastal's injuries (which, to their credit, they have navigated admirably well so far! But that's still a lot to overcome). Louisiana is certainly a stock up team, but feels more like a 2 seed to me when the dust settles.
love 1
DVH
12:35
How close was Arkansas State to making the rankings?
Aaron Fitt
12:35
They weren't really in the mix this week, given the series loss last week to ORU. But but certainly we are all impressed with Arkansas State so far, one of the most pleasant surprises of the young season.
WarEagle
12:37
Auburn has four games against Top 3 teams this week at Plainsman Park (midweek vs Georgia Tech, weekend series vs Texas). How many do they win?
Aaron Fitt
12:37
I'll say they go 2-2, but man that's a tough week! Typically you'd favor the home team to hold serve and win two of three at home, in a top-five matchup like this, but Texas is obviously very good and capable of winning it, and GT is loaded of course. Great litmus test for the Tigers this week. I'll be on hand at Plainsman Park for the Saturday and Sunday games this weekend, looking forward to that showdown.
RanktheCajuns
12:38
Thanks.
Aaron Fitt
12:38
Cajuns earned their spot! Helped that they have some head to head wins against some of the other contenders for that last spot (1-0 vs. LSU, 2-0 vs. Kansas State). Louisiana is building a nice resumé.
love 1
BOC
12:40
Going into the series, I was fine with Dawgs taking one at Arky but feels like we should have grabbed a second one, especially on Friday. Going forward, weekend rotation looks great and lineup will produce, just a tad worried about getting roles sorted out at back of bullpen. Thoughts on Miss State going forward? Thanks
Aaron Fitt
12:40
Speaking for our staff, I think if there's one area we are less sold on for MSU, it is the bullpen. That said, I like a lot of their pieces back there; Davis, Billinsgsley, Miller, Burns, Pitzer, Gleason -- feels like those are all quality pieces for a winning bullpen, they just need to get on track and sort those roles, as you said.
Eric Simmons
12:43
Time to be concerned about LSU after back to back series losses?
Kendall Rogers
12:43
Yeah, I would say I'm pretty concerned about LSU right now. The offense did enough in two of the three games over the weekend to win it, while the offense didn't do much in the middle game of the series. But the biggest red flag of the weekend is the fact that LSU pitching walked 21 batters in the first two games of the series. It's incredibly difficult to win two SEC games with 21 walks. Again, the thing that has killed this LSU team is that when the offense is on, the pitching stinks. And vice versa. I still think LSU puts all the pieces together at some point -- but they are most certainly in prove it mode right now.
SmartMuffin
12:43
Be honest - y'all put West Virginia in the Top 25 just to spare the Big 12 the humiliation of being entirely shut out, yeah?  Has this conference fallen or what?  What are they now, the fifth best baseball conference - maybe?  What has happened here?

(PS - Will Texas Tech return to the field of 64 this year?)
Aaron Fitt
12:43
Well, we were pretty blunt last week that we didn't really want to take WVU out of the rankings; it was a brutal "poll mechanics" situation where we simply had to put USC in and we didn't have any good candidates to take out, so we made the tough choice to take out WVU in light of the Friday loss to an Ivy team, even though they won the series. But we always figured we would bring the Mountaineers back in this week assuming they won their weekend. As for the Big 12 overall -- it does feel like the league is lacking in a truly elite team right now, given TCU's injuries, but maybe West Virginia can be that team, because they have star power and balance, just still have to do a little more proving against high-end competition before I'm ready to buy into them as a clear-cut regional host type team. I also like ASU's roster, if they throw enough strikes they've got a nice ceiling. Kansas State is very solid too, feels like another top 25-caliber club. Texas Tech's offense seems scary; yes, regional team.
Marc S.
12:45
Is LSU this year’s Texas A&M?
Kendall Rogers
12:45
Marc -- I don't think so .... yet. LSU doesn't have a host of injuries that makes you think they won't have the ability to put the pieces together. I don't think any of us thought the Aggies had a chance to be an elite team once they started dropping like flies last year, but I do think LSU, with the talent it has, does have a chance to make a run, granted it can stay healthy. But in terms of the ugliness, there are definitely some parallels thus far.
WC_Drew
12:45
What are your thoughts on the Big West after two weeks of conference play? Do you still think they will be a three bid league?
Aaron Fitt
12:45
Doesn't feel like it, at this point. Irvine needed to get off to a better start than 9-11 through five weeks in order to put itself in at-large position by the end of the year, so I'm not liking their chances. I still believe in UCSB despite the series loss this weekend, and I remain pretty high on Cal Poly, they have righted the ship after a tough start. But two bids feels more likely, with one bid also a possibility.
cool 1
Daniel
12:46
Is there a world where both USC and UCLA are top 8 national seeds? Also a fun hypothetical question if the USC Trojans were in the national title series against Georgia Tech, who would win the best of 3 and in how many games?
Kendall Rogers
12:46
Daniel - why couldn't USC and UCLA both be top eight seeds? Certainly plausible. I actually think Georgia Tech would be an awful matchup for USC (and most teams) right now. The third spot in the weekend rotation is somewhat problematic at times, but Tate McKee threw very well over the weekend (our Shotgun Spratling had a good piece on him), and the offense is beyond scary. I mean, they are hitting over .400 as a team, and just flat wore out Clemson for much of the weekend.
HootHoot
12:47
What should I make of Rice’s 12-9 start to the season? We’ve won 4/5 weekends which is great compared to recent years, but have struggled against top competition (USC) and in midweek games.
Aaron Fitt
12:47
I would feel encouraged about the direction of the program; they are clearly much improved over the last several years. Do I think they're a regional team this year? No. And I think the midweek issues are a testament to the fact that it's still not a very deep roster. But they are competitive, and those two wins at GCU were nice. Good to see the bats really get going lately.
cool 1
Go Cards!
12:49
Louisville puts up 40 runs in 3 games versus Notre Dame. Is that the best lineup in College Baseball?
Aaron Fitt
12:49
Now that Zion Rose is back, I think Louisville is in the conversation among the best lineups in the country, although Georgia Tech feels like a slam dunk for THE best. But that's a very good Louisville offense with a nice blend of power and speed, and no real letup from top to bottom. Still think the Cards are super dangerous if they can just find a way to get that pitching figured out. And even if they can't -- that offense is gonna give people nightmares.
Tim
12:51
Is Nebraska within striking distance of the top 25?
Aaron Fitt
12:51
They weren't quite yet this week, the teams they've beaten the last couple weeks just aren't good enough to really move the needle. But they're 14-5, taking care of business, and they do have those very nice early-season wins against Florida State and Auburn, plus solid wins against UConn and Northeastern. So if Nebraska has a strong week with five road games coming up against Wichita and Michigan, I could actually see the Huskers jumping over some other Top 25 contenders and sneaking into the rankings next week.
Johnny
12:56
Georgia fan worried that we are the same old hit but can't really pitch well team.  What do you think?
Kendall Rogers
12:56
There's certainly enough talent on the mound, but yeah, I'm going to get a closer look at UGA this weekend in College Station. Of course, that probably won't be the best gauge because it's supposed to be windy and blowing straight out. WTS - if you go back and look at the weekend, I wouldn't really call the pitching terrible or anything. Volchko had his moments, Vigue allowed two runs in 4.2 innings, and our Shotgun Spratling wrote about Caden Aoki, who tossed four shutout out of the bullpen. I've seen worse.....
BeaverBeliever
12:56
Hi Gents,

The Beaver offense has showed up. Oregon State is averaging north of 9 runs a game over their last 8 games (Oregon, Xavier, and San Diego), some of those runs include 7 home runs in the 3 game series against San Diego. The trepidation for ranking the Beavers higher the past few weeks seemed to be because of questions marks in the offense.

Just curious why they seem to be stagnant the past few weeks despite, seemingly, beginning to answer the only thing between them and "elite"?

Also, the remainder of Beavers schedule is fairly weak compared to previous years (including last year as an independent). With the eventual West Coast downward slide (in the RPI) as the season progresses, what are the Beavers going to have to achieve for end of Season RPI to be considered Top 8, Top 16, or even a minimum to get into the tourney?
Aaron Fitt
12:56
Great to see the Beavers get the bats going; you are correct, we had reservations about the offense earlier in the season, which was probably reflected in the rankings. I still don't think it's an elite offense by any means, but Singer getting hot has been a HUGE development I think, that's such an important guy for them. Paul Vazquez has been a nice boost. As for the rankings, they just got jumped this week by some teams that have louder resumés, because Xavier and USD aren't projected regional teams, so we rewarded teams like FSU that made more noise against higher end competition. But if the Beavs keep winning, they will definitely move up. As for seeding, still feels like the normal benchmarks apply -- they'll need to be top 20 or so in RPI to host, top 10-ish for a top 8. Will the schedule allow that, given some of the struggles of teams ahead on their slate? We'll see; I think there's a decent chance, thanks to the strong early-season foundation they built.
MD
12:57
Is this finally the year for Georgia Tech to break through. It’s now 20 years since winning a Regional. If not this team, when?
Kendall Rogers
12:57
MD -- It certainly seems like it, doesn't it? I saw two of the games over the weekend on streaming, and man, those guys just absolutely destroy the ball. They are one of those teams that unless they just pitch horribly in a regional, they're a lock to be in a super. I don't think the pitching staff is a finished product, but it has certainly been solid. And, well, the offense is what it is. Elite.
Big Ten Fan
12:58
Can you handicap the Big 10? Even more specifically the top 3 (ranked) teams? Whats the ceiling for all 3?
Aaron Fitt
12:58
I think all three (UCLA, USC and Oregon) feel like regional host-type teams, and as KR said above, it is well within the realm of possibility that both the Bruins and Trojans could get into the top eight. Definitely think there's a much better chance than ever for the Big Ten to get three hosts, although the smart money is still probably on two hosts when the dust settles. But I like all three clubs a lot, think they all have Omaha upside.
SD Southpaw
12:59
Is it time to hit the panic button in Irvine? With the Beavers coming to town next weekend, there can't be a lot of oxygen in the Anteater dugout right now.
Kendall Rogers
12:59
I don't enjoy calling anything a must-win series, but it certainly seems that way for the Anteaters this weekend. When you look at the postseason resume, you have that weekend with wins over Vanderbilt, but otherwise as a whole, it's a big glob of nothing, including back-to-back series losses to CSUN and CSF. I think for the simple morale of the team, this weekend is pretty big for the Anteaters. There's enough talent present here to go on a run, however.
Derek
1:00
What is FSU’s ceiling if its rotation pitches the way it did at Wake Forest? They have another battle against an excellent NC State rotation and team this weekend in Tallahassee. What are you most looking forward to seeing in that series between the Pack and Noles?
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