You are viewing the chat in desktop mode. Click here to switch to mobile view.
X
Return toD1Baseball
D1Baseball Weekly Chat: April 28
powered byJotCast
Aaron Fitt
1:03
Hi everybody, hope you had a nice weekend. Let's dive in. Very messy week for the rankings, so I suspect yall are gonna bring the heat today -- will try to foul off as many pitches as we can. It's just about staying alive after a week like this...
Patrick
1:08
Do you think 18 or 19 SEC wins is the magic number for a top 8 national seed this year? Also, how many regional hosts do you think the SEC is awarded this year?
Aaron Fitt
1:08
There will probably be a top-eight seed or two that finishes with 18 or 19 SEC wins, but I'd hesitate to call it a magic number this year. Arkansas, for instance, is currently 14-7 with three very difficult series left. They could go 4-5 down the stretch and get to 18-12 in the league... but then they also would have lost 5 of their last 6 SEC series. They COULD still get a top-eight in that scenario, because their schedule has been very difficult... but they sure as heck wouldn't be a lock. As for hosts, I'm feeling 7 from the SEC.
cool 1
SDSouthpaw
1:12
In the Big West, unless your name is Irvine or Cal Poly, the only way to get an NCAA bid is through the conference tournament. Of the contenders for the final 3 spots in the tourney, UCSB appears to have the easiest remaing schedule, while Fullerton has arguably the hardest. Both teams appear to have done enough already to make the cut. Does the final spot come down to the winner of my Tritons at Hawaii in the final weekend of the season or will Long Beach make up enough ground in the final weeks to take it? Who do you have playing for the auto-bid in Fullerton at the end of May?
Aaron Fitt
1:12
I think you've got a good handle on it. I like the way UC San Diego is trending after taking that series from the Gauchos, that was obviously loud. I do suspect it will come down to that last series between UCSD and Hawaii for the last spot, and you'd probably have to give Hawaii the edge being at home, but the Tritons sure look dangerous. Should be compelling -- maybe I need to find a way to get out to Hawaii that weekend....

I was in SLO this weekend and like what I saw from both teams. Irvine feels like a legit Omaha contender to me, and Cal Poly is also a rock-solid regional-caliber club. I'd have a hard time betting against those two teams facing off for the Big West title.
WestCoaster
1:13
Given the changing landscape of college baseball (NIL, Transfer Portal, etc.), how impressive is the job Ben Orloff is doing at UC Irvine? Is he a National Coach of the Year candidate?
Aaron Fitt
1:13
Orloff is an absolute superstar, and I've heard some of the most respected coaches in the West say the same thing. And you're right, given the NIL and portal stuff, Irvine's success truly is remarkable -- this ain't 2007 anymore, the game has changed a ton. He's definitely a top contender for Coach of the Year, in my opinion.
Froggy
1:18
What’s keeping Kansas in the rankings over TCU when the frogs swept Kansas? Also how did Arizona not drop out of the rankings after a series loss to Texas Tech?
Aaron Fitt
1:18
It has just been a revolving door at the back of the Top 25 with all these Big 12 teams. You're right that TCU swept Kansas, which at the time knocked KU out of the rankings and brought TCU in. Then TCU lost a series at UCF -- a team that Kansas swept on the road, so TCU fell back out. Meanwhile Kansas swept back to back series to climb ahead of TCU in the standings, and the Frogs failed to sweep Baylor, so they're just 3-4 in their last 7 games while Kansas has won 8 straight. We're getting into that time of year where head to head results muddy the waters because teams also have common opponents, and the transitive property can bend you into a pickle. Lots of factors at play, and at the moment KU's recent body of work puts it just ahead of TCU in our pecking order. But it's basically a coin toss. As for Arizona, they fell 8 spots, which is significant, but that weekend did not warrant them falling from 16 all the way outside the top 25. That would have been too harsh. Everybody has warts this time of year.
Marc
1:20
All of Texas's statement series wins (Auburn, LSU, Georgia, A&M) have come in Austin. Will Texas be able to replicate their success against elite opposition on the road in Arkansas? Seems like Dave Van Horn always beats Texas going back to his Nebraska days.
Aaron Fitt
1:20
It's a good point, you have to wonder what UT's SEC record would look like if those home and road series were reversed -- but ultimately that doesn't matter. Everybody has to play the schedule they draw, and Texas has played its schedule almost flawlessly. That said -- I do like Arkansas at home in that matchup. Running the gauntlet without any blemish is almost impossible... what Texas has done to this point is nothing short of remarkable, but I don't expect them to make it all the way through without a series loss.
King
1:22
A question I did not expect would be asked early in the season--does Arkansas have the pitching to make an Omaha run?
Aaron Fitt
1:22
I get your point, certainly, but let's remember that Arkansas still ranks 12th in the nation in ERA. Everybody has ups and downs, but that's still an extraordinarily talented staff that has mostly performed well. Yes, they absolutely have the pitching firepower to get to Omaha and win it all. It's just about peaking at the right time.
Guest
1:24
What is the % that NC state gets a national seed? How about host?
Aaron Fitt
1:24
Hosting feels like a lock at this point. Even with two tricky road series coming up (at Miami, at UNC), I don't see State going worse than 4-5 in its last three series (which finishes with a home set vs. Stanford). That would get the Pack to 19-11 in the league, and that's a no-doubt host resumé. If they win two of those final three series -- say, a 5-4 or even 6-3 finish — I think that's a top-8.
Guest
1:28
With the terrible schedule and getting swept by the only good team the played why is Oregon State still in the top 10? I get it they got left but can't just gift them a national seed or host spot.
Aaron Fitt
1:28
Let's not forget they also won a series vs. Irvine (which is looking like a regional host) and at Cal Poly (an at-large team). Those are two of the best teams in the West. This weekend probably dashed OSU's chances to be a top 8 seed, but they still put together a pretty darn good schedule for an independent, and handled it well until this weekend. They're still No. 11 in the RPI, and still very much alive in the regional hosting mix. (Worth noting, however, that the DSR has the Beavers down at No. 31. I think that RPI is really boosted by all the road games, but I'd say OSU's true value feels somewhere in the middle, like in that 15-20 range. I think they're ALIVE in the hosting race, but their margin for error has gotten much, much thinner).
Heel
1:30
As it relates to UNC, when breaking down resumes that could be similar in the national seed pecking order, could UNC's lack of Quad 4 games give them a boost? They have only played 6 to date, while Arkansas for example has played 22 Quad 4 games.
Aaron Fitt
1:30
Yeah, UNC has only played 12 games total against Q4 and Q3 COMBINED. Obviously they've done more damage against Q2 (12-6) than Q1 (a still very solid 9-4), but that's really a great recipe for putting together a robust RPI -- avoid those Q4 games, get fat against the middle.
Guest
1:36
minimum Florida needs to do the rest of the way to not sweat on selection monday? and how about jake clemente?
Kendall Rogers
1:36
Given where Florida is overall record-wise and RPI-wise, I think the Gators are fine with 12 wins, in all honesty, to make the NCAA tournament field. The SEC looks like a league getting 13 tournament bids, and I'm not even sure it will be up for much debate on Selection Monday. I feel pretty confident in Florida getting to 12-13, along with A&M.
ACC
1:37
Taking Clemson, UNC, FSU and NC State as the top 4 in the ACC, who would you pick as the most likely to win a national title this year, and alternatively, who has the most upset potential to get picked off in regionals?
Aaron Fitt
1:37
What a tough question. I try not to be a prisoner of the moment, but NC State has really grown on me as a viable national title contender, because I just think that pitching staff is real. Even without Derrick Smith being a factor (after he was such a key part of it last year), that bullpen is even better now that Anderson Nance is established as a stud who can give you 4 or 5 shutdown innings, and Dudan has gotten back to being Dudan, and Andrew Shaffner is a force. And that rotation feels very steady and reliable, which stands out. Still doesn't FEEL like a national title caliber position player group, but it has gotten better and better — growing on me for sure. I think UNC also has championship-caliber pitching, although I worry just a bit about how the freshmen bullpen guys they are leaning on so heavily will hold up in May and June. FSU's rotation can be dominant when it's on, and other times feels gettable, and the same goes for the bullpen—but it's a high ceiling. Clemson feels a couple arms short.
Chris
1:38
Thoughts on what Texas A&M needs to do from here to solidify a tournament spot?
Kendall Rogers
1:38
I think 13 wins probably does it for the Aggies, maybe even 12. The Aggies don't have a ton of meat on the bone in non-conference play, but that Cal Poly series win actually now does look pretty good. No one has played a tougher intra-conference schedule than the Aggies. I would probably want to get to 13 to feel decently well about making the field. Right now, that means sweeping Missouri and not getting swept by LSU and Georgia. That seems more than doable IMO.
John
1:38
Louisville is now 6-4 vs your top 5 with 2 series wins vs those teams. They have one of the harder conference slates in ACC. Could they host with 16-14 conference record or do they need 17 or 18+ wins?
Aaron Fitt
1:38
The problem Louisville faces is that high end of their resumé is undercut by that No. 192 nonconference SOS. I think 16-14 might not be enough to host given that nonconference slate.
Ross
1:39
Cal Poly’s RPI has slipped, recently.  
Will the BW Conference still get 2 bids?
Kendall Rogers
1:39
Cal Poly's RPI is still sitting at 28 -- which is in a great spot for a Big West team. I still love the fact CP is 15-6 in the league, and also went out and played an incredibly difficult non-conference schedule. Those  two things being true typically turns out pretty well for bubble teams. FWIW, I would not have CP on the bubble right now. The BW at-large picture is clear, though, with UCSB slipping this past weekend.
Tyler
1:40
Auburn fan talking here, how many wins do we need to get to to host this year? With road series at Tennessee and Ole Miss remaining, I don’t see us going 6-3 down the stretch to get to 17-13. so is 15 or 16 wins going to be enough?  Currently number one SOS and top 5 RPI but we are 9th in the SEC which is concerning. Granted several teams above us have played Missouri (which is a three game handicap this year with all due respect). So I guess my question is- will SOS and RPI hold up enough for them to host at 15 or 16 SEC wins if that’s only good for 8th or 9th place in the conference
Aaron Fitt
1:40
I think if the committee is doing its job properly, it will have to analyze the intra-conference SOS for all these teams in these 16-team super-conferences. If they do, they'll see that Auburn has played the No. 1 hardest SEC schedule, and that should matter. I think if they get to 16 SEC wins against that slate, they deserve to host. And ultimately I THINK the committee will see it that way too.
Jeff
1:42
How would Kentucky have to finish in their final three SEC series (@MissSt, Oklahoma, Vandy) to host a regional? Is it even possible?
Kendall Rogers
1:42
Jeff -- Kentucky is in the mid-20s in the RPI with an around .500 league record. I think the Wildcats would need to take their final three remaining series to have a shot to host at this point. You would've earned it with series wins over OU and Vanderbilt to close out the season, imo.
Owen
1:43
Other than Texas and LSU (geaux tigers!) who do you trust in the sec to make a deep postseason run?
Aaron Fitt
1:43
I know Arkansas and Tennessee have slipped in the month of April, but I still trust both of them to make deep runs -- I have too much conviction in their talent levels, and they're both tough to beat at home, and they're both still going to be at home for regionals, at the minimum. Georgia's a weird team but I've still got them in my circle of trust too, despite the disappointing numbers that talented pitching staff has produced. They are a TOTALLY different team at home, and they're definitely going to host a regional, maybe also a super. If they get a top 8, they're going to Omaha, I think.
Eric
1:44
Does Iowa still have a chance to host? Would going 2-1 vs. Washington, Oregon State, and Oregon plus a final 4 appearance in the conference tournament do it?
Kendall Rogers
1:44
Eric -- Really good club and Cade Obermueller is someone who is going to give a team fits in the NCAA tournament, but with an RPI of 61, the Needs Report (which CAN change week by week), says the. Hawkeyes pretty much have to win out the rest of the regular season just to be in the Top 32. That means no host. But that's going to be a hell of a two seed for someone.
RebinFulton
1:46
No move at all with the Rebs? 3-1 week all against SEC teams..
Aaron Fitt
1:46
One of those awkward things in the rankings, where we just kinda ran out of spots to move them up comfortably, and then we woke up this morning and felt like we probably should have found a way to force them at least a bit higher (not too high, considering they did just lose a series to South Carolina last week, lest we forget). This stuff gets messy this time of year.
The Duckster
1:46
Oregon fan here wondering what it would take to potentially host a regional, especially after the momentum gained from sweeping Oregon State in Eugene.
Load More Messages
Connecting…