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D1Baseball Weekly Chat: April 20
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Aaron Fitt
12:38
Hi everybody, can you believe we're 10 weeks into this deal? Feels like it goes faster and faster every year. Let's dive in!
Joe
12:41
Hey guys - appreciate all you do for college baseball. What do you think BC has to do to host? RPI is a little below the range right now it seems, but maybe a 10-5 or 11-4 close to get them to the 40-42 win mark?
Aaron Fitt
12:41
What a season the Eagles are having! Amazing that they're already sitting at that 14-win threshold (a typical target for an ACC bubble team) with 3 conference weeks still to go. I think if they finish 4-5 in their last three series (at ND, at Clemson, vs. GT), that gets them to 18 league wins -- that gives them a very strong shot to host. I think if they get to 19, they'll feel like almost a lock.
Derek
12:43
Do you think Oregon St will end up in the Top 8 or will their weak schedule hold them back?
Aaron Fitt
12:43
That RPI is starting to dip a little as we expected given their second-half schedule, and looking ahead I think it will continue to drop. Ultimately, I don't think they'll get a top-eight, despite their dominance. They did an admirable job building a quality schedule given their circumstances, but it's just too hard to find enough games against quality opponents as an indepedent. Just 2-2 vs. Q1 with no more opportunities for Q1 games is rough compared with the other top 8 candidates.
Adam
12:44
Did Miami's tournament hopes take a hit winning only 2 out of 3 on the Farm in Stanford and loosing midweek to USF
Aaron Fitt
12:44
Nah I think they're fine -- all those games were on the road so they don't hurt the RPI, Miami is still in rock-solid shape at 34 RPI and 10-8 in the ACC.
WestCoastBestCoast
12:45
UCLA is now 21-0 in conference. Obviously there's potential to slip up against UW or Michigan State, but it seems like that last weekend at home against the Ducks will be the last real challenge. 30-0 inbound? Yay or nay
Aaron Fitt
12:45
Somebody asked this question a few weeks ago and I said I just think it's too hard to run the table — it's BASEBALL, for Pete's sake! Nobody runs the table! I felt like surely they would slip up at some point... but it's amazing they haven't yet. 21-0 is an incredible feat, even if the Big Ten ain't the SEC, I get that. It's feeling more and more possible... but if I had to bet, I still think they fall short of 30-0. It's SO hard!
Corn Dude
12:48
How many wins does Nebraska need before the conference tournament to feel safely in as a host? 40 sounds like enough but that would mean going 9-6 the rest of the way. I fear that would damage the RPI too much and they’d better get to 42+.
Aaron Fitt
12:48
Goodness has Nebraska found itself in a great position right now -- that RPI has been juiced up to No. 14, with a 15-3 conference record. Giddy-up! Looking ahead, the good news is there really aren't any RPI land mines on their schedule: at Illinois (83 RPI), at Ohio State (104 but both of those on the road is good for RPI), vs. Iowa (89) and at Minnesota (96). Again, all those road games should help Nebraska maintain a pretty strong RPI, as long as it can hold its own. I like 9-6 down the stretch, that feels sufficient.
WC_Drew
12:49
Can UCSB make a regional, even without winning the Big West tournament? And if they were to win out for the rest of year, can they host a regional?
Aaron Fitt
12:49
Yeah right now the Gauchos feel like a slam-dunk at-large team if they don't get the auto bid, with a pretty No. 28 RPI and tied for first in the standings. And sure, a very hot finish could put them in the hosting mix.
Guest
12:51
What does WVU have to do to host?
Kendall Rogers
12:51
Guest -- the RPI is probably going to need to be in that 17-20 range, at minimum, to host, unless the committee is looking to make a 'conference' pick as a Top 16 seed. Right now, I would give the edge to Kansas given its RPI and 13 wins vs. Q1/Q2 teams. A lot of fluidity with this in terms of the Big 12 right now.
Jordan O
12:53
Assuming Kansas wins the Big 12, they're likely on pace for an RPI of 18-23, which would probably end up behind West Virginia.  Would the committee value that regular season championship and put them higher in the host pecking order over the likes of an Oregon, Ole Miss, Mississippi State, Southern Miss, or even Boston College?  I ask because Georgia Tech was in a similar situation last season and they ended up as a 2-seed.
Aaron Fitt
12:53
The Ga Tech example last year was a weird one -- they had a very soft, favorable ACC schedule, and they had some weird misstep weekends. The Kansas situation doesn't feel the same to me. I do think winning the Big 12 title would carry a lot of weight, given the fact that Kansas didn't benefit from some jarringly soft intra-conference schedule. If they win it, they'll have gone through WVU and UCF, K-State and OK State and Cincinnnati and BYU -- all regional contenders. So yeah, I could see them winding up ahead of some of those other teams you mentioned, especially if they can add series wins at K-State and vs. WVU in the coming weeks.
Eric Simmons
12:53
Can Gonzaga get an at large bid if they dominate the WCC? I think it's possible
Kendall Rogers
12:53
I think Gonzaga's ATL case is pretty tedious, actually. Even with a good RPI, this is a team that did not win a single non-conference series outside of Indiana State. That includes series losses to OU, Creighton, Texas State and Hawaii. Love the run the Zags are on, but man, that is a tough, tough ATL case.
North
12:56
Michigan has won four series in a row after starting conference play with UCLA and Nebraska, the RPI is solid.  Do you have them projected to make the tourney right now?
Kendall Rogers
12:56
Depends on if we have a sixth Big Ten team in the field. Not sure if the NerdMaster General or Fittsy will agree, but I'd have Purdue ahead of Michigan in my pecking order, and then Michigan as the final Big Ten team in my pecking order. Wolverines are certainly trending the right direction, and Tracy Smith did try to schedule relatively difficult competition out of league play.
Brendan
12:58
Miami University is projected to finish as high as the low 30's in the RPI;  assuming they get there and a Kent State or Northern Illinois wins the autobid, how close would the Redhawks be to the cut line?
Aaron Fitt
12:58
So I assume you are referring to Warren Nolan's predicted standings, which predicts Miami to finish 38th -- but that's based on an expectation of them going 16-0 the rest of the way, which feels like a flaw in the process. I don't think that's a reasonable expectation. If they DO run the table and finish inside the top 40, I sure hope the committee gives them an at-large, because they will have earned it (even though that remaining schedule is... weak. But running the table like that should be enough to overcome the quality of the competition). Any MAC team really needs to be around 40 to have a shot, if history is any guide. The Ball State snub a few years ago with an RPI just outside the top 50 (if I recall) was rough; I disagreed with it, but that's the way these things have gone for the MAC forever.
Eric Simmons
12:58
Is it auto bid or bust for LSU regarding their NCAA Tournament hopes? I think it might be
Kendall Rogers
12:58
I'm pretty iffy on LSU's chances to make the tournament right now. There are a host of issues for the Tigers. In addition to being *checks notes* 14th in the SEC, the Tigers also are 65th in the RPI. You can't be both of those and even sniff the tournament. The good news is that LSU still has some premier RPI teams left on the schedule. The bad news is LSU still has premier RPI teams left on the schedule. I think I'd be pretty surprised if LSU made some late-season run.
Pablo
12:59
How many teams does the Big10 and Big12 get in the tourney.  We already know the SEC is going to take 14 teams this year.
Aaron Fitt
12:59
I think 12 or 13 will be the final number for the SEC, they won't get 14. I think 5 is the most likely number for the Big Ten, with an outside shot at 6. I'm feeling 7 or 8 bids for the Big 12.
Guest
1:01
What are your thoughts on NC state and what seed they will end up with for the ncaa tournament?
Aaron Fitt
1:01
The Wolfpack actually helped their RPI by going to Wake Forest and losing two of three -- they are up from the low 60s to 50, and still in decent shape at 9-9 in the ACC. I think it's a manageable remaining schedule: at VT, vs. Miami, at Stanford, vs. UNC. A 6-6 finish would get them to 15 ACC wins and likely around No. 40 in the RPI heading into the ACC tournament. They should be safe in that scenario. Finishing 14-16 would probably land them on the bubble, but ultimately I think they'd be on the right side of the bubble -- but may need a win or two in Charlotte to solidify it in that scenario.
Brian
1:03
Does Southern Miss stll have a chance at a Top 8 national seed if they reel off a lot of wins here in the back 1/3 of the season?
Kendall Rogers
1:03
Of course they do. The good news for USM is that it built itself some cushion with so many early-season marquee wins. USM is still sitting at 17 Q1/Q2 wins, which is one of the best marks in college baseball so far this season. The league record is still a little iffy, but backend of the league schedule should present USM with an opportunity to fix all of that.
cool 1
Seeingidawg
1:03
what do you think about the Georgia Bulldogs national seed chances?
Aaron Fitt
1:03
At this stage, I will be quite surprised if Georgia doesn't wind up in the top 8. I know the RPI still isn't there -- stuck at No. 20 -- but leading the SEC means a lot, and the remaining schedule offers a pretty smooth path to 20 league wins, I think.
Steven
1:07
Big series win for Auburn this weekend!! When it comes to host seeding, where do you think Auburn needs to be to get a Top 8 National seed? Last year they were 17-13 in the SEC and landed a Top 8 seed. Feels like 17 wins would get us there again especially considering our last 4 SEC series are against teams ranked in the Top 15 as of today. Do you think 16 SEC wins would be enough?
Aaron Fitt
1:07
To me it feels like 16 falls short, but 17 might be enough, given that robust RPI and all the quality wins. Generally you feel better about 18 wins for the top 8 as an SEC teams, but as you pointed out, 17 was enough last year and the way it's tracking I could see that happening again for Auburn.
Disch
1:08
How safe are Texas' top 8 chances? Losing Sunday felt odd.
Kendall Rogers
1:08
Feeling really good about Texas right now. Yes, the Horns had that ugly weekend against the Ags, but I actually like the new rotation setup with DV on the front end of it. With Vandy (road), Mississippi State (home), Tennessee (road) and Missouri at home, I think UT, at worst, splits those four series. I think that would give the Horns a Top 8. We'll see, but right now? Feel pretty good.
Brent
1:08
Hello all, longtime reader, first-time chatter. As a Nebraska fan, I’m obviously biased. But can you explain more about why a team that is top-15 in RPI, 17th in KPI, 13th in ELO, and 22nd in DSR has a “iffy resume”? The Huskers played in two marquee early season tournaments and went into the heart of SEC country. And while they looked out gunned against Auburn, they’ve equated themselves well in their other Q1 games. Right now, they are one of only two non-ACC teams to have beaten FSU. In short, what more do you want to see? And how much of that is a reflection of Big 10 scheduling versus a program that clearly challenged itself in non-con play.
Aaron Fitt
1:08
Who said they have an iffy resumé? We quite like their resumé, as I said above. Sweeping USC was an enormous boost, really changed the complexion of their season, with regards to hosting chances, I think.
Toddfather
1:10
Will Oklahoma State contend for an at-large? Is RPI high enough?
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