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D1Baseball Weekly Chat

Aaron Fitt

12:37

Hey gang, let's dive in.

Heel

12:40

How would you stack up GT, FSU, and UNC at this point? GT gets FSU and UNC back-to-back weekends which will reveal alot about this trio.

Aaron Fitt

12:40

I think you also need to include UVa in that top tier in the ACC -- feels like four Omaha-caliber teams right now, then a big jumble of teams trying to establish themselves behind them. I still feel like GT is the cream of the crop, just because that position group is so darn special, and the pitching has been good enough. But FSU and UNC have the best pitching of this group, and UVa has good balance. Florida State really impressed me this weekend by taking a marquee road series at UVa even after losing Myles Bailey. UVa impressed me earlier this season by taking a road series at UNC. And Georgia Tech has yet to have a losing weekend at all. You're right, the next two weekends will tell us a whole lot about the ACC pecking order. Right now it still feels like a free-for-all between those four at the top.

Casey

12:42

Who comes out ahead next weekend in Eugene? Nebraska looks pretty strong right now and recently took 2/3 in Ann Arbor from the same team that just won the series against Oregon

Aaron Fitt

12:42

Nebraska is on a roll and looks like a slam-dunk regional team with a legit shot to host. I'll give the Ducks a bit of a pass for dropping a road series in the bitter cold, especially with the quick turnaround before Game 1 due to a schedule change. Ultimately I still think Oregon is an Omaha-type team, and I'm not quite there with Nebraska (despite the differing results against common opponent Michigan), so I lean Oregon at home. But the Huskers are certainly good enough to win that series on the road. Should be a good one.

Guest

12:45

Where do you think LSU reasonably lands for the post season? Hosting or no?

Aaron Fitt

12:45

For weeks now, I've been stubbornly refusing to quit the notion that LSU will still wind up being an Omaha-type team, so I'm not gonna abandon ship now, after the Tigers have won back to back series. They're still not a finished product certainly, and they need to continue to get better -- but we're still not even to the halfway point in the SEC schedule, and LSU is hanging around at 6-6 in the standings, and trending in the right direction. I'm sure I'm still the high man on LSU amongst our staffers, but I am continuing to believe in the talent. I think they will make a serious second-half run and wind up hosting. I suspect my colleagues disagree, but that's my take. Kendall, care to chime in?

Eric Simmons

12:45

If Texas A&M wins the series against Texas will they be in the hosting discussion?

Kendall Rogers

12:45

You bet. The Aggies already have an RPI of 17, and taking two of three from the Longhorns would mean it's probably in the 10-15 range. A&M would be in a pretty good spot with a series win because the next two series after that are at LSU and Florida, meaning the RPI is likely only going up unless you get swept. Big, big swing weekend coming up for the Aggies. I was pretty encouraged by A&M's offense over the weekend, particularly the rise of freshman Jorian Wilson, who finally got a serious opportunity and delivered.

Brian

12:49

After the top 3 or 4 teams looks to be like a lot of parity this year. Who outside of your current top 20 or so do you feel could make a run to Omaha?

Aaron Fitt

12:49

In addition to Oregon and LSU (two teams I've already mentioned), I'm intrigued by the upside of teams like Arizona State, Wake Forest, NC State, even Louisville (with Zion Rose back, that lineup is as elite as expected, and I can get behind a Danilowicz/Eberle tandem in the rotation... just need to figure out he bullpen). Similar situation in the SEC -- Florida and Kentucky both dropped out of our Top 25 this week but I could certainly envision either of those teams making an Omaha run. Even Tennessee at 4-8 in the league -- there's still a long way to go. This isn't one of UT's best teams during this era, but do they have the talent to get hot and make it to Omaha? Sure they do. I know it's boring to say "there's a long way to go", but darn it, there's a long way to go! Championships are not won the first week of April.

Eric Simmons

12:49

Could the American be a 3 bid league? UAB is looking real good! UTSA and East Carolina could be in the discussion for at large bids

Kendall Rogers

12:49

I feel really good about UTSA and ECU as NCAA tournament teams as of today. ECU sweeping Charlotte was massive, and the Pirates made a massive climb in the RPI because of that sweep. UAB looks to be in pretty good shape right now at 34 in the RPI and first place in the league, but I'm curious to see if that is sustainable down the stretch. Today - I'd say three bid league.

Darryl

12:51

What teams do you get asked to talk about the most as a guest on their shows, podcasts, etc? I would guess Miss St is pretty high up there?

Aaron Fitt

12:51

Yeah for me it tends to be the Mississippi schools, LSU, Arkansas, and also East Carolina, South Carolina -- places with hungry fan bases where I've been a regular for years. I'm sure Kendall's list is a bit different, with more of a Texas flavor in addition to the SEC hot beds.

Birdman26

12:54

Saw a couple games in person this weekend in Durham ( I know Aaron was there in person on Saturday ). The Cards just can’t seem to put offense / pitching together at one time . They finally did so in the Sunday game against Duke , salvaging one game of the series . They probably should have won 2/3 games in each series for the past 3 weekends , but it has been just the opposite . Their 3 weekend starters seem to be pitching well now , with the issue being the bullpen . I still believe the Cards can finish with a flurry the second half if they can get the bullpen woes fixed . Their offense is just as good as any in the country . Your thoughts - that’s for the excellent coverage of college baseball !

Aaron Fitt

12:54

I think you're spot on. Feels similar to Tennessee for me -- both teams are like RIGHT THERE, just kinda finding ways to lose some close games, but man it feels like they're always competitive every weekend, even when they can't quite get it done. I tend to believe that stuff has a way of flipping, for teams that have the talent to flip it -- which I believe both Louisville and Tennessee do. In Louisville's case, you're right -- it's all about getting that bullpen figured out. They do have quality arms and a variety of looks in the pen, so I think there's hope. They just need some guys to get it going. But ultimately I'm with you, I think that team will have a big second half.

Jimmy

12:54

Jacksonville State just continues to find ways to win in a Conference USA league that looks more and more like a multi-bid league as time goes on. At 27-6 and 12-0 in league play, what's stopping the D1 staff from ranking the Gamecocks? Looking around, all the other major publications and polls are ranking the Gamecocks, so was just curious if the D1 staff was seeing something they weren't. Thanks for all you guys do for college baseball.

Kendall Rogers

12:54

Jimmy -- I don't see Jacksonville State ranked by other larger publications? Coaches Poll does not have JSU ranked, nor do we. I think we've pretty high on Coach B and our guy Eli Pillsbury all season long. What the Gamecocks have done is super impressive, but let's also face the facts that JSU is now just 1-4 against Power Four teams right now. A win over Auburn would certainly help -- even if it is a midweek game. I'm super impressed with JSU, but the resume is just a little light outside of those league games. JSU also has not played Missouri State or Liberty.

DDawg

12:56

Miami OH, Kent St, St Joes, and Cal Baptist are all in the top 57 of the RPI near the cut line for an at large in leagues that traditionally do not produce at large teams. Can any or all of these teams get to the postseason if they do not win there conference tournaments?

Aaron Fitt

12:56

Right now, they're all certainly alive in the discussion... but if you take a look at rest of their leagues, I think it's quite likely that all of them will finish the season with RPIs outside at-large range. That's almost always what happens in those particular leagues. So those teams are fighting history, but it's not impossible. They just need to continue winning at a VERY high clip. Not a lot of room for missteps.

Tiger Histalmos

12:59

Over the halfway point for the season, what teams have legit surprised you? Don't even have to be Top 25, just teams that seem to be in a position for postseason noise?

Kendall Rogers

12:59

Some teams top of mind for me:

Boston College (ranked, 23 RPI) - Our Bradley Smart was pretty high on the Eagles, but I was kind of I'll have to see it to believe it mode. Have been damn good.

UCF (10-2 B12, 22 RPI) - I liked UCF's roster on paper, but 10-2 in the Big 12 at this point and ranked No. 12? I definitely would not have remotely predicted that two months ago.

Missouri State (11 RPI, 9-3 league record) - Again, we thought MoState would be pretty solid, but you never know how the first season in a new league will go. Bears look like a slam dunk postseason team as of today.

WC_Drew

1:01

What are your thoughts on the Hogs? Even before their recent downhill spiral, their lineup left a lot to be desired, they couldn't sweep their series, and consistently dropped their mid-week games (not sure if you all have the same observations)

Aaron Fitt

1:01

Yeah, from afar, it's just kinda felt like more of a slog than usual for Arkansas in the first half. But that said, if you look at the whole picture -- they still have just two losing weekends in their first eight; they have those quality Week One wins at Globe Life on their ledger; they won a marquee series from Mississippi State. It's still not a BAD resumé. It just feels like it's been a little tougher sledding this year, primarily because of the lineup underachieving somewhat. And the last two weeks have been tough so it feels even worse. But I still love the pitching talent there, and I feel like some of those lineup pieces that have had rough first halves are gonna get hot (Aloy? Stewart? Pompey? I mean these guys have some track record). I'm still buying the Hogs as a postseason team, and still think they have a chance to host. But they need to get it going pretty fast now.

bear

1:04

If the season ended today How many b12 teams get in the tourney field?

Aaron Fitt

1:04

If the season ended today, I think probably seven: UCF, WVU, Kansas, Arizona State, TCU, Baylor, and either OK State or K State. It's worth noting that when we do our projections, we never do "if the season ended today" -- we're always trying to project what the final end-of-season field would look like, based on what we know today. So If I looked at the Big 12 through that lens, I'm probably betting on K-State and Oklahoma State to finish over Baylor (and seven bids still being the answer).

Billy

1:05

Obviously a road SEC win is nothing to be upset about, but should we be worried heading to College Station this weekend? Feels like the Longhorns don't look like the #2 team in the country and haven't for multiple weeks now. Nothing is coming easy

Kendall Rogers

1:05

I wouldn't say worried is the right word -- more so cautious. I do think the Longhorns need to get more offensive production than they've had the past couple of weeks (outside of one game against OU). But Blue Bell Park has a tendency to take care of that. Assuming the wind is blowing out to left field there, that place turns into a launching pad. That's good news for UT, but also good news for A&M's powerful offensive lineup. I'm really curious to see how those young arms like Crossland, Cozart, etc, perform in a pretty hostile environment. That is actually my only question mark for Texas entering the weekend.

Buzz Aldrin

1:05

Who you taking in the FSU @ GT showdown this weekend? I've been impressed with GT starting to win some games when the bats slow down (relatively speaking, at least).

Aaron Fitt

1:05

I just don't think I can pick against Georgia Tech until they show any major cracks in the armor -- especially at home. But as I said earlier, super super impressed with FSU going on the road after losing their most important hitter and winning two of three at UVa. So I won't put anything past this Florida State squad -- they got toughness, and they got elite pitching. ... But I'm taking Georgia Tech.

WarEagle

1:07

What’s more likely: two national seeds in the state of Mississippi or two national seeds in the state of Alabama?

Aaron Fitt

1:07

I'd probably say the state of Alabama, because I don't see Ole Miss as a top-eight type team. Ultimately I don't truly expect Alabama to finish up quite that high either, but right now they have certainly earned a place up in that range, and I just think it's more likely that they continue to win enough to stay in the top eight while Auburn finishes strong and joins them in the top eight (as opposed to both MS schools finishing in the top eight).

Hardball Fan

1:07

Is it time for a coaching change in Bloomington? Indiana continues to underachieve and sits at 5-10 in the Big10 and 12-19 overall. RPI is 105.

Kendall Rogers

1:07

I wouldn't go that far just yet. Let's see how the season plays out. It really depends on what IU's expectations are as a program. IU made back to back NCAAT trips in '23 and '24, and then nothing last year, and are obviously not going to make it this year barring a surprise. The one interesting caveat here is that Chris Lemonis, who took the Hoosiers to three NCAA trips, is available. Would that cause IU to pull the trigger and bring back their old skipper? Maybe so.

DDawg

1:09

Does UCLA go 30-0 in the Big 10?

Aaron Fitt

1:09

UCLA is on its way to an all-time great season, and the fact that I had to stop and think about this is pretty telling. But it's just so hard to run the table in baseball, I have to imagine UCLA gets tripped up at some point along the way (even though the Bruins are very clearly the class of the Big Ten by a wide margin). Still -- it's baseball, not football. Nobody goes undefeated.... right?

Eric Simmons

1:13

After LSU scored 10 runs in the top of the 12th inning against Tennessee yesterday I think LSU might have momentum going forward what do you think?

Kendall Rogers

1:13

We shall see moving forward, but it does feel like LSU is somewhat getting that clutch gene back a bit. The Tigers rose to the occasion the final two games against Kentucky last weekend, and they obviously got clutch hits over the weekend against Tennessee. Milam's defense continues to be astonishing, and I'm very curious to see if Cade Arrambide really starts rolling right now. He's always had the talent to be a superstar. On the flip side, I don't get a great feeling about Tennessee right now. How many arms should Josh Elander really trust at this point? Not many ....

Darryl

1:14

Do you see it as more of a negative that Miss St has gone 1-5 in their last 6 games decided by 1 run or extra innings? Or more of a positive that they're staying close in their losses and not suffering blowouts?

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