JotCast | Cubs Offseason In Review Chat With Tim Dierkes

Tim Dierkes

8:59

Let's do this! Thanks for joining me.

George

8:59

Will the Cubs get a closer

Tim Dierkes

9:00

Seems like there's still some chance of them signing Zack Britton. But I don't think they have any plans to get an official Closer who always gets the ninth inning. Most teams have moved away from that.

High Heat 2003

9:00

Who do you see as having the most ABs or highest WAR at 3B for the cubs? O/U .750 OPS from the highest AB player?

Tim Dierkes

9:01

I think I'll go with Edwin Rios for the most plate appearances at 3B. That's a bet on his health and performance, which are both question marks.

9:02

I have to think about OPS because I don't use that stat much...

Yeah, I mean, propped up by power, I can see Rios having a .750 OPS. That's one reason I don't like that stat, the weird jamming together and supposed equality of OBP and SLG.

9:03

I'd assume Wisdom is the better defender. They're both kind of all or nothing hitters, but since Rios bats LH he could in theory get more PAs.

Cubs4Life

9:03

Will Swanson turn into the SS version of Hayward? I am thinking so.

Tim Dierkes

9:04

The Heyward-Swanson comparison is a common one, and I can see why. They were/are both framed as, "Hey, the defense is great, and he's a pretty good hitter too!"

Couple key differences though

Heyward was signed for age 26-33

9:05

Swanson was signed for 29-35

With Heyward the Cubs were expected three prime years that they aren't getting with Swanson

9:06

Additionally, Heyward was a more desirable free agent on the marketplace than Swanson was. He was our #1 position player free agent that winter

Lastly, of six seasons, Heyward had a 120 wRC+ four times before FA.

9:07

Dansby has only topped 99 in a full season once, and it was last year at 116

So Dansby is a worse hitter than Heyward was, and notably older. Enjoy?

Cubs4Life

9:07

Wesneski an upper tier starter with an improved fastball?

Tim Dierkes

9:08

I guess I'd have to see in what way he's improved it. He profiled as a back of the rotation starter before spring training

9:08

Will Nick Madrigal be a important part of this team or will he be dealt

Tim Dierkes

9:09

The Cubs really want to make this work and give him some kind of shot still. As a 3B backup he's not very useful. If Nico or Dansby gets hurt then he probably becomes a regular. I suppose he could be dealt if he doesn't hit, though they wouldn't get much back.

Guest

9:09

Dansby is a notoriously slow starter (see Ryne Sandberg). Way too early to panic.

Tim Dierkes

9:09

I'm not sure how statistically significant that kind of stuff is. How many Aprils has he played in the Majors, five?

Cubs

9:09

Will Fulmer be the next Cubs closer to be traded at the deadline?

Tim Dierkes

9:10

I think they'd like to be hanging around contention at the deadline, and I don't think Fulmer is a guy you'd get a lot for.

Opening Day Lineup

9:10

What’s your prediction of 1-9 next Thursday?

Tim Dierkes

9:12

I don't do that stuff better than Jason Martinez: https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/depth-charts/cubs

Dunno if maybe you find a way to sit Wisdom against Corbin Burnes?

Starting Rotation

9:12

How do you think it will shake out once Hendricks returns? Steele the odd man out?

Tim Dierkes

9:13

My guess is that by the time Hendricks is ready, someone will be hurt or underperforming. But Steele is above Wesneski in the pecking order

9:13

If Wesneski is throwing well what do they do when Kyle Hendricks is healthy? Could he be the odd man out of the rotation?

Tim Dierkes

9:14

They could always go to a six-man for a bit. I feel like there's roughly a 15% chance that Stroman, Taillon, Steele, Smyly, and Wesneski are both healthy and relatively effective when Hendricks is ready.

Josh

9:14

Soooo you’re saying Swanson is likely a worse outcome?

Tim Dierkes

9:15

I actually don't think there's a ton of basis to compare Swanson and Heyward. They're two completely different players. It's not like there's some kind of statistically proven thing where this sort of player flops upon signing with a new team.

Bourbon

9:15

Which of the following young pitchers do you think will have the best year as a starter: Steele, Wesneski, or Assad?

Tim Dierkes

9:15

My vote is for Steele. But until he goes 150 innings I'm not sure he's able to.

Ian Happ

9:15

Extend or Trade? They don't seem ready to win, and have a lot in minors

Tim Dierkes

9:16

I could see the Willson Contreras Path to Total Frustration happening here.

The Cubs' OF outlook is bright enough that committing, say, 100 mil to Happ is probably not something the team is excited about. But if they are in the mix in July, they won't want to trade him. If they're like 5-6 games out, it could be a tough call.

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