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Craig Edwards FanGraphs Chat--8/1/2019
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Dodger Fan
2:03
Hi Craig. Can you help clarify something for me: why Lance Lynn is worth 1.0 WAR more than Ryu this season when 1) Lynn has only pitched 6 more innings than Ryu, 2) has a slightly worse FIP and, 3) has a much worse xFIP ... this is a question disguised as a statement. Thank you in advance.
Craig Edwards
2:05
Lance Lynn pitches in a much more difficult park in a more difficult league and has twice the number of infield flies as Ryu and all of that goes into WAR. Their FIP- numbers, which account for league and park are 62 for Lynn and 66 for Ryu. That plus the infield flies, plus those extra six innings account for the difference.
Matt
2:05
Alright, Can you please explain why the Marlins would trade Gallen , but not Caleb Smith. I am struggling. It seems like if you could get a top 50 prospect for Gallen, the return for Smith would have been substantially greater. Given Miami's competitive window, it would see to make sense to trade the guy that commands a larger return, is older, and has less team control.
Craig Edwards
2:07
It's possible Arizona wanted Gallen and not Caleb Smith and they were the only team offering up a prospect as good as Chisolm. As for why other teams didn't get in on Smith, it's possible that the ask was simply very high. Many of the teams in need of pitching, particularly starters, seemed to make a few guys untouchable and didn't leave much else to make a trade with.
Bo
2:08
Arizona got the pre-aging curve surplus value years from Greinke, and got to deal him (and his hefty price tag) in exchange for more prospects. Is buyer's remorse really that bad in FA?
Craig Edwards
2:09
They also paid $26 million for those prospects and Greinke is still pitching well, which isn't always the case. I think most teams can afford to have an albatross contract and be fine, but players in their 30s are a lot worse than they used to be because younger players are so much better. I wrote about that here: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-trade-value-series-skews-young-again/
2:10
It doesn't explain young stars like Harper and Machado, though both of them eventually got big contracts. The issue is that many of the game's best players aren't getting to free agency anywhere near their prime due to contract extensions.
Cito's Mustache
2:10
What do you make of Dan Hayes' piece yesterday that quoted a Twins source saying they'd have beaten the Mets package for Stroman if Atkins had bothered calling back? No way they would've included Graterol, right?
Craig Edwards
2:12
Hard to think they could've beaten what the Mets gave up without him. I think most are down the Jays return because the prospects are generally viewed as 45s in the 135-250ish range of prospects. If the Jays saw those players as 50s, even Graterol alone wasn't going to be a better offer. It might have been better objectively, but perhaps not to the Jays.
NorCalNobody
2:12
Its so easy to knock the Mets because they are constantly disfunctional, however, looking at what they did (adding Stroman, holding Diaz, Wheeler, and Syndergard) impartially, it really looks like they have done well building for 2020. What a rotation that has a chance to be. And what a fun division that is going to be to watch
Craig Edwards
2:14
Not trading Wheeler seems like a pretty big misstep, still. The pick from the QO isn't that valuable. It is weird that the team demanded only MLB-ready players when they could have just as easily gotten prospects, who could have then been dealt for MLB-ready players in the offseason. All that said, they did well in the Stroman deal, but they have a roster ill-equipped for his talents.
MiserableSDFan
2:14
When the Padres signed Machado, I was no longer a Miserable Padres Fan. While this season hasn't gone as well as I'd like, there have been some great memories. Many of those were thanks to one Franmil Reyes. After seeing him get dealt to Cleveland, tell me why I shouldn't be miserable again. Thanks, I'll take the answer off line.
Jason N
2:14
Can the Padres win a title with AJ Preller leading them?  He seems great at building prospect depth but MLB roster building track record doesn’t look very good.  The Red Sox built a great farm system recently but didn’t start winning titles until they hired Dombrowski to turn that farm system into banners.  Feels like the Padres should consider doing something similar.
Craig Edwards
2:16
Franmil Reyes is a very fun player and I hope he keeps hitting in Cleveland, but San Diego has a lot of outfielders. If a team has a bunch of outfielders similarly valued, the best thing to do is to deal the one others value the most, and that was probably Reyes.
2:18
As for Preller winning, the team took a step forward this season, their young players have been as good or better than advertised and they amassed more prospects which they will presumably trade at some point to bring in the players they need to make a run at LA. This was always going to be a transition year and the team doesn't need to go for players who have considerable trade value tied up in 2019 when they want to be better in 2020.
NorCalNobody
2:19
I have really paid attention to T. Kemp the last few years and i believe he was really only moved off of 2B because of Altuve, any chance he plays well enough to be the Cubs 2B?
Craig Edwards
2:21
I would have gone with Robles for a while longer, I think. I don't think he is everyday starter material. He got a bit of a run at 2b with altuve gone and did about what you would expect from a bench bat. Ultimately, I think Zobrist comes back at some point.
Broken Bat
2:22
Was Cubs getting Casty from Tigers enough? Looking at remaining schedule and heavy Brewers, Pirstes
Craig Edwards
2:23
I don't know about enough, but they still have the best team on paper in the NL Central. They need the bullpen to be better and hold up. Castellanos was a solid addition and should help the team, but the bullpen and the rotation will have a bigger say going forward than the offense.
Hello
2:25
Does your answer re Lynn/Ryu also explain why deGrom has 0.2 WAR more than Morton despite identical PPI and ERA, and deGrom with a slightly higher FIP?
Craig Edwards
2:26
ERA doesn't come into it, but for those two the difference probably is infield flies.
Soto
2:27
The Cubs have $100m coming off the books, but will need to replace those pitchers. What do you see them doing?
Craig Edwards
2:31
That $100 million is a little illusory. Bryant, Baez, Schwarber and Contreras are all arbitration eligible which might cut $40 million off at the start. Options for Quintana and Rizzo take another $20 million and then you've just got $40 million. That's a couple bullpen arms and a FA second baseman.
J
2:32
Worth noting that with Castellanos the Cubs can now shift Heyward to center and Happ to 2nd too
jkim
2:32
What's more disappointing - Dodgers not adding anyone other than Kolarek to the bullpen, or the Yankees not adding another starter in terms of their WS chances?
Craig Edwards
2:33
I think the Yankees because they really needed another starter. They do have the division sewn up but they are putting themselves in a difficult spot if the guys they have don't perform. A couple blowups and a really good outing from an opponent and they could be going home.
Paul
2:34
The press have pilloried Friedman et. al. for failing to acquire a reliever of more esteem than Kolarek at the deadline, but they haven't explained what should have been done.  Pirates were comical in their demands for Vasquez, and Giles's elbow was barking; what other elite relievers of the kind that will really move the needle were available for an unridiculous price?
Craig Edwards
2:34
They probably could have gone out and gotten a reliever that might have helped them even if they couldn't land an elite guy. Plenty were traded for reasonable costs.
Guest
2:35
How come everyone is ok saying “playoffs are a crapshoot anything can happen” and at the same time saying “Yankees have no chance to get past the Astros now”?
Craig Edwards
2:35
Who is saying that. Are the same people saying both things?
Guest
2:37
The As and Mets have nearly identical playoff odds. The As were praised for going out and getting Roark while the Mets are being blasted for holding onto Wheeler. What's going on here?
Craig Edwards
2:38
The Mets tried to trade Wheeler. That they kept him wasn't a sign they thought they had a good shot at the playoffs given they shopped him at the deadline. They just didn't get an offer they liked.
Guest
2:38
"A couple blowups and a really good outing from an opponent and they could be going home." Doesn't this apply to the Astros as well? What am I missing here?
Craig Edwards
2:39
It does. That's why the playoffs are a crapshoot, but you lower the odds of a couple blowups with better pitching.
Cchat
2:39
Is the cardinals fade down the stretch inevitable? Have we seen the best of what this team can do? If they do fade, do you see anything changing front office wise?
Craig Edwards
2:41
I don't think a fade is inevitable. They've got a 22% chance at the division and roughly 50/50 odds for a playoff berth. The projections know the rotation has holes and they still give the team a decent chance. The Cardinals might not fade, but they certainly could have given themselves more certainty in terms of making the playoffs by shoring up their biggest weakness, which has been there since February.
2:42
As for the front office, the team did just make a change in their analytics department, I believe, but in terms of changes at the top, I think the front office is doing about what they are supposed to be doing: Build competitive teams and hope for more without needing to go on a rebuild.
Soto
2:43
How good would the As be if they had the Mets' money?  How bad would the Mets be if they had the As' money?  I think that's the difference between the two teams. One has a plan.
Craig Edwards
2:44
How good would the Mets be if they didn't hamstring themselves with an average or worse MLB payroll despite being in New York. Teams that want to win now but don't want to spend to get it inevitably set their teams back years trying to achieve that goal, and most of the time it doesn't even work.
Rosters
2:45
So the Braves made all those trades the past two days...but I see no corresponding moves to put the pitchers on the roster.  Who got demoted ?
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