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Craig Edwards FanGraphs Chat--1/16/2020
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Craig Edwards
2:06
Going to let the queue fill up a bit as I finish lunch.
Bart
2:17
C Beltran has just stepped down a NY Mets Manager.   Yankees and Brewers have been mentioned as possible investigation targets.  When will this end?
Craig Edwards
2:19
I don't know. It will take more people with knowledge i.e. players saying something. I think animosity towards the Astros generally helped this get out in the first place (not that it shouldn't be out), but I don't know how if it will work the same for other teams who might or might not have done something similar. We don't really have any idea how far this goes and I'm not sure we ever will.
2:20
I wrote a little about that in my piece on Cora's termination. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/alex-cora-out-as-cheating-scandal-moves-to...
Mike Fiered
2:20
Has any player even been responsible for more managers losing their job than me?
Craig Edwards
2:21
Not in one week I wouldn't think.
David Allen Boucher
2:21
How is Beltran's HOF case affected by the scandal?
Craig Edwards
2:23
That's something that will be hard to gauge because we don't really know for sure what his support was going to look like in the first place. Andruw Jones is a somewhat similar player though not as good offensively and he's had something of a struggle. I'm sure there are some who will hold this against him. I don't think I would. It was probably going to take a few years for Beltran to make it in anyway, and I think this just might delay it by a couple more years.
Thank you for the chat!
2:24
If Texas wanted to sign Casty or Ozuna to a 2-year, high AAV contract, what would it look like? What makes sense for both team and player?
Craig Edwards
2:25
I'd be surprised if that's what happened with either player. They likely want that 4-year deal with the most security or to get back out there on the FA market next season. I think it would take more than $20 million per year to make a two-year deal something they would be interested in.
pumpsie
2:25
Astros and Red Sox still division winners and/or playoff teams?
Craig Edwards
2:27
Astros still yes. Red Sox are behind the Yankees with the Rays not too far behind. Boston should still probably make the playoffs next year, but the division will be really difficult.
robert
2:29
Flaherty's second-half amazingness was largely based on his 4 seamer and slider.  Does he risk significant regression if he cannot improve his curve, sinker, and change (which he hardly threw)?    Is his long term ceiling significantly limited by only have 2 ++ pitches?
Craig Edwards
2:31
I'm not very worried about that. The other pitches are not bad by any stretch and he used his twoseamer more against lefties as the year went on. I get concerned about two-pitch pitchers, but Flaherty isn't that at all. He also just has an amazing slider that hitters haven't adjusted to so there's little point in mixing in other pitches a lot until hitters force him to.
Chick Pear
2:32
Question about sinker-change up tunneling. Kiley-eric recently wrote in Libertadore’s profile that the lack of a swing and miss fastball makes the development of the change critical to his success as a starter.  Can you comment on the and compare Libertadore to Justus Sheffield? They differ in their elite out pitch (Libertadore curve, Sheff slider), but the emphasis on changeup seems the same.
Craig Edwards
2:34
It's a little different with Sheffield because the slider should match up pretty well with his fastball in a way Libertore's curve doesn't. But Sheffield needs to have a third pitch, regardless, if he's going to start, and having a good changeup is important as it is his third pitch.
2:35
Re: Beltran from earlier, Jay wrote up something on his legacy. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/carlos-beltrans-job-and-legacy-are-in-limb...
mt
2:35
Are we at peak LOLMets yet or can they get LOLMets-ier than this?
Craig Edwards
2:35
We are not yet at LOLMets-iest.
Mike
2:36
Did you have any opinions on the other Mets' managerial candidates from earlier in the postseason?
Craig Edwards
2:37
Muelens seems a pretty obvious choice given their options at this point, especially considering they required no managerial experience when they made the last hire.
Thank you for the chat!
2:38
Would JA Happ make sense for the Angels in a salary dump type trade for Yanks?
Craig Edwards
2:39
Maybe, but that's not really what the Angels need given a bunch of other Happ-like question marks in the rotation. It also looks like the Yankees might actually need Happ now, anyways.
robert
2:40
Is Dakota Hudson due for regression?  Doesn't miss bats, walks a ton of people.  Is he more #4/5 than #2/3??
Craig Edwards
2:43
He isn't really a 2 or 3. He had one of the best infield defenses in the game and he induces a ton of ground balls. He also plays in a park that prevents home runs. That makes St. Louis an ideal spot for him, but an 18% strikeout rate and 11% walk rate isn't going to get it done without a ton of help from factors out his control. I think his walk rate could go down a bit, his homer rate could go up slightly and he still ends up with an ERA around 3.5-4, but he'll still be more of a 4/5 than anything else. The GB rate might allow him to outperform his peripherals a little, but last season was a bit extreme.
Chick Pear
2:44
What do you make of all the Mike Fiers shaming?  Seems a sort of indefensible row to hoe to suggest that “snitches get stitches” and “first rule of fight club..” are better messages for kids and fans than “do what you know is right, tell people regardless of whether it is popular to do so or not”.
Craig Edwards
2:45
If there had been more guys like Mike Fiers in 1996 and 1997, we might have had the PED era end a lot more quickly. I don't really care how much Fiers had sour grapes about his time with Astros. He did the right thing and some of his reasons for doing so were certainly right.
Roger
2:46
By deciding to part ways with Cora, did the Red Sox run the risk that Manfred will impose a more severe sanction regarding other aspects of the team?  The suspension of Hinch, after all, was part of the Astros' punishment.  Since Manfred can no longer impose a similar punishment on the Red Sox, he might compensate by increasing the severity of other punishments, such as fines or draft pick losses.
Craig Edwards
2:47
I doubt it. The Red Sox said they discussed this with the Commissioner's office, so it is hard to see how the Commissioner would then punish the Red Sox worse because they fired a guy they found out cheated.
Trent
2:47
Is there a worse choice of manager for the Astros than Dusty Baker?  Speaking as a Reds fan, Dusty's backwards thinking was bad enough for a more traditional organization a decade ago; I can't imagine him fitting into a more analytically-minded, forward thinking organization like the Astros in today's world of baseball.
Craig Edwards
2:49
I think he'd be fine. Do the Astros need somebody analytically minded if the whole front office and coaching staff is. Given the roster, it's not like there are a bunch of controversial lineup decisions he'd be likely to make. HIs presence in the dugout might calm everybody down. He's probably not the choice I would make, but it isn't a bad one.
Nick
2:50
Assuming (likely erroneously) that they get equal playing time in 2020, is Addell or Robert a better ROY bet?
Craig Edwards
2:51
If you are putting Adell in the majors right away, it seems possible that both players struggle out of the gate. I would lean toward Robert, but it is pretty close.
Guest
2:51
Why would the Angels take on a salary dump, just after giving up their first round pick to dump Cozart's salary?
Craig Edwards
2:52
If it's at a position where they need it, and it depends on the amount of salary being dumped.
Chick Pear
2:52
The J-Rod/Kelenic hypetrain has left the station in Seattle. Any concerns?
Craig Edwards
2:54
Not this season. Further down the road, it's important to remember that one or two really good prospects might transform the outlook of a club, but they aren't going to do it alone. Braves have Acuna and Albies, but Freddie Freeman was already there and Donaldson was on the team last year. It takes a lot to build a contender from where the Mariners are right now.
AJ
2:55
should the white sox be looking for a Brock Holt type player that can play pretty much everywhere?
Craig Edwards
2:56
like Yolmer Sanchez? They need to find somebody who is right-handed and can play the outfield but Holt doesn't fit that.
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