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Chat with MLBTR's Steve Adams: 9/16/25
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Steve Adams
11:51
Good afternoon! Sorry for the lack of advance notice. Schedule has been a bit wonky this week. We'll go from noon CT until around 1:00 CT or so, however. I'll give the queue a few minutes to start loading up here while I run and grab a snack, then we'll get underway.
11:55
And we're off
Harry the K
11:55
What kind of contract is Bader looking at? 2/30?  He’s been amazing for the Phillies, offensively and defensively.
Steve Adams
11:55
I'd probably come in a touch lighter on the AAV but yeah, that general range doesn't seem outlandish
Reds GM
11:55
You guys should publish an article about who could qualify for arbitration for the first time this fall! Also when will the offseason outlook posts begin?
Steve Adams
11:57
Our arbitration projections are in the works as we speak and will check that box for you. Offseason Outlooks probably will get underway late this month and run through the end of October (maybe into early November). We'll be writing them while also prepping for our Top 50 Free Agent list/predictions and our top offseason trade candidate list, so a lot of balls in the air at once
David
11:57
I don’t think the Ricketts will pay for Tucker after this year.
Steve Adams
11:58
This has pretty steadily been my stance all season. The Cubs would need to exceed their franchise record contract by $200MM+ to re-sign Tucker. I just don't see it.
Chaim Bloom
11:58
Is my payroll going to be below $100 million for 2026?
Steve Adams
12:01
The Cardinals only have $75MM on the books for 2026, and that's including Nolan Arenado and Sonny Gray, both of whom will be trade candidates (although STL would have to eat a fair bit of money in either case -- especially Arenado). Then you have arb raises for guys like JoJo Romero, Alec Burleson, Lars Nootbaar, Brendan Donovan, etc.

Some of those guys could be traded, but the Cards will probably bring in some short-term free agent vets. I'd say over $100MM but not by a large margin.
Nick Kurtz
12:02
Do you believe service time manipulation has gotten better or worse under this CBA?
Steve Adams
12:04
It's just changed. Bubba Chandler probably would've been up months sooner, for instance, whereas guys like Drake Baldwin, Cam Smith, Jacob Wilson etc. just landed in the majors from the jump. Teams are always going to game the agreed-upon rules to some extent in the name of good business.
SFGigantes
12:04
Thoughts on Verlander getting another 1/15 from SFG for 2026?
Steve Adams
12:05
He's been solid. It the two parties want to run it back, I think that deal would make sense
Still an A
12:05
When do you see the A's as legit playoff contenders?
Steve Adams
12:07
I don't think it's out of the question that they could be in the Wild Card mix next year. I'd take 2027 as the safer bet, but I like a lot of their young hitters. If they can get a couple surprise rotation performances, be it via offseason additions or in-house strides from a Gage Jump, Braden Nett etc. -- it's not outrageous to me to think they could be a '26 sleeper.
Yordan Ankle
12:07
Do you have an update on my ankle
Steve Adams
12:07
If I did, it'd be on the site!
Ellis
12:08
What do the White Sox do with Robert Jr. this off-season? Almost seems like it's come full circle to keep him around with his diminished trade value in case this team takes big strides next year
Steve Adams
12:08
They'll pick up his option and gauge trade interest again. I think they should've eaten all his remaining contract and moved him at the deadline, but  they're obviously comfortable gambling on the woeful health track record.
Mike Ellias
12:09
What does my promotion mean for the O's  off-season?
Steve Adams
12:10
Not much outside the fact that they'll hire a GM, adding another high-profile voice to work under Elias, who'll remain final say over all baseball ops matters
Joe Nuxhall
12:10
Reds need a thumper. What does Hunter Greene bring back ?  I know people would say I’m crazy to trade Hunter but I think he brings back what we need.
Steve Adams
12:11
He'd bring back more than one premium bat, but that's true of plenty within Cincinnati's system. I'm not trading Greene or Chase Burns. You could get a quality bat for either Nick Lodolo or especially Andrew Abbott as well. I do think dealing from their pitching stash makes some sense, as I alluded to last week for subscribers:
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2025/09/reds-trade-rumors-offseason-nic...
Tal’s Hill
12:11
Do stros move Christian Walker in the offseason to open up a hole for Parades
Steve Adams
12:14
Darragh and I talked about this at length on the podcast this morning. (That episode will drop tomorrow)

They'd have to eat some of the contract to facilitate a deal, but sure, it's possible. They could also look to move Paredes, though I think his swing is more or less tailor-made for Daikin Park.

Less popular idea -- let me duck/shield my self from Astros fans quick -- would be to trade Jeremy Pena to help replenish what's a pretty barren rotation. Two more years of team control, but he's a Boras client who's not likely to sign the type of extensions the Astros offer. Could go Correa at SS, Paredes at 3B, Walker 1B and Altuve/Brice Matthews at 2B.

Not saying they should/will do it -- just that it's something I can envision other teams inquiring about, and the Astros ought to at least hear them out to see what kind of arm is out there.
chaim boom
12:15
Are we heading towards a Nolan Arenado release this off season?  Doesn’t seem like there is much trade value left.
Steve Adams
12:15
I'd be surprised if they straight up release him. The trade value's in the tank, but if they pay him down to like $4-5MM per year, they could at least salvage some cash.
Nico Hoerner
12:16
Traded or extended by the Cubbies?
Steve Adams
12:17
If he's open to it, extend him again. I don't think they'll trade him this winter, though with so few shortstop options out there, some team might try to get a bit creative and pry him away with a position change in mind.
walter alston
12:17
with the lack of good quality closers who do the dodgers go after for 2026
Steve Adams
12:21
They don't generally chase the high-end closers in free agency anyhow. The only times in the past decade they've done so (as you can see in our handy Contract Tracker) were to re-sign Kenley Jansen (5 years, $80MM) and to sign Tanner Scott this past winter (4/72 with deferrals).

Jansen was more of an ownership decision. Scott was breaking from the norm and it hasn't really worked out.

I imagine the Dodgers will have interest in bounceback deals with Devin Williams and Ryan Helsley and Luke Weaver, and they'll probably be open to paying up for some buzz relievers who've elevated their standing considerably this season (someone like Brad Keller)

But in general, I wouldn't expect them to be on someone like Edwin Diaz or Robert Suarez (the top relievers this winter)
Brian Cashman
12:21
How much will it cost me to resign Cody Bellinger after he opts out?
Steve Adams
12:22
I apparently remain the eternal Bellinger optimist, but something like $120-140MM over five years (maybe six years if it trends closer to the larger end of that range)
John Means
12:22
Havent heard anything on him...is he with the Guards in 2026?
Steve Adams
12:23
He's pitching on a rehab assignment and should be activated in the final couple weeks. They'll probably get two starts to see how he looks. Zack Meisel with The Athletic opined recently that Means' option would be picked up if he's healthy. I'm a little more bearish on the idea if he looks so-so in his 2-3 MLB starts, but Meisel is super plugged in on the team.

I touched on Means a bit in this post
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2025/09/9-contract-options-to-keep-an-e...
Woodruff
12:24
over/under 99.5mm?
Steve Adams
12:24
Under, but I think he can get a pretty weighty three-year contract
Phanatic
12:24
will the Phillies lose Ranger for… nothing? Who replaces Realmuto if he signs somewhere else?
Steve Adams
12:27
Won't be for nothing, since he'll reject a qualifying offer, but the Phils are a tax payor so that reduces the compensation to a pick after the fourth round. Not great.

There aren't a lot of great options at catcher other than re-signing JTR. Could roll the dice on Victor Caratini or a second straight buy-low look for Danny Jansen.

If Realmuto goes elsewhere, the trade market probably makes more sense. Ryan Jeffers, Jake Rogers, Tyler Stephenson are among the guys I can see available this winter.
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