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Chat with MLBTR's Steve Adams: 8/8/23
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Steve Adams
8:28
Good morning all! I'll be back at 1pm CT to get this underway, but as always, feel free to ask questions in advance if you prefer! Looking forward to it!
1:01
Greetings all! Let's get started
Jill
1:01
Will Cleveland trade Shane in the offseason?
Steve Adams
1:03
I think there's a real chance he'd have been moved at the deadline with better health. An offseason trade seems likelier than not to me, especially if he's able to make it back to the field this year and show that he's healthy in a couple starts before season's end.
Jorge Mateo
1:03
Why am I still on the Orioles roster if Joey Ortiz is better than me at everything besides running?
Steve Adams
1:06
Whether he's a better defender than Mateo might be debatable, but your point stands regardless; Ortiz is a better player, which isn't an enormous bar to clear when Mateo has a career .269 OBP.

Mateo is barely playing right now, offering speed and defense off the bench. I'd imagine the only thing keeping him on the roster is that the O's want Ortiz to be getting more regular at-bats... not coming to the plate 5-10 times per week, total, which is about where Mateo's been for awhile now.
Brian Cashman
1:06
What kind of contract might Cody Bellinger get in free agency?
Steve Adams
1:10
I'm still a little wary of Bellinger's rebound, just because he's not hitting the ball anywhere near as hard as he did during his peak. That said, the results are increasingly hard to ignore, and it's going to be a paper-thin market for position players. He has a real chance to be viewed as the best non-Ohtani bat on the market, and he only just turned 28. I'm putting him down for $100M+ right now -- probably more than 150 -- but I'm curious to see if he cools down at all in the final seven weeks based on his pretty lackluster quality of contact.
Tim
1:10
Do the jays exercise their option on whit Merrifield?
Steve Adams
1:13
I doubt it. Merrifield's a solid player, but the market has shown time and again that aging second basemen like this just aren't treated favorably. He's likelier to get that $18MM spread over two years on a free-agent deal than he is to have the Jays pick up the one year.

Mutual options are pretty much never exercised by both parties -- they exist largely as accounting measures. Merrifield is one where I imagine he'd exercise his half (player typically goes first) and the team would buy him out.
Jeff
1:13
Baez has 4 years/$98MM left. He's been awful with the bat but has rebounded defensively. How much would Detroit need to eat to entice  a team to see if a change of scenery could wake his bat up? Is there a number where that starts to make sense for a team like LA or Boston?
Steve Adams
1:16
Something like $90MM? The bat has just been awful to the point that I imagine there are many teams who wouldn't even offer him a big league deal in free agency, regardless of the glove. You could just trade a marginal prospect to the O's and get Jorge Mateo this winter without having to deal with any of Baez's contract.

There's no plausible way for the Tigers to get out from under that deal.
Yankees Fan
1:16
What is going to happen to Severino this off-season. What a fall
Steve Adams
1:16
Yankees will buy out his option and he'll sign somewhere on a one-year deal worth $8-12MM or so, hoping to rebound.
Dan'l
1:17
Did any move made at the deadline particularly surprise you?
Steve Adams
1:18
I'm always more surprised to see guys with long windows of club control moved. Jake Burger to Miami was surprising -- both in the sense that I didn't really consider him a trade candidate and in the sense that he's the antithesis of the Marlins' entire offseason direction. It was a weird trade.
Jon
1:19
What are the Twins plans for their free agent pitchers? When looking at Sonny Gray, Kenta Maeda, and Tyler Mahle (TJ surgery) are any of them get extensions? Does Maeda get a qualifying offer (I'm assuming Gray would).
Steve Adams
1:21
Gray will get a QO, yeah. I don't think the Twins are going to put down a $20-22MM offer on Maeda, no. Mahle's obviously someone they like, and they've done the two-year deal thing for recovering Tommy John guys before (Michael Pineda), so it wouldn't shock me if they were to try to do something similar with him.

Twins also have Chris Paddack working his way back, which will help replenish some of that depth. Lopez, Ryan, Ober, Paddack, Varland isn't a bad starting point, but I have to imagine they'll still look to bring in some other arms, even if it's more just depth types.
JBE
1:22
Holliday in Baltimore by sometime in 2024? Also Kevin Brown situation  by telling the truth and getting suspended for last 2 weeks.
Steve Adams
1:23
Yeah I'm expecting Holliday in the majors next year, barring an injury of course. The Kevin Brown situation is just weird. If they really took the guy off the air for simply highlighting how the Rays have dominated the Orioles at Tropicana Field over the past few seasons, that's just pathetic and an awful look for the organization.
BrodyM
1:23
Can you explain the rationale for KC to trade Nicky Lopez for Hearn?
Steve Adams
1:24
If I could, I would. They could've traded cash or a fungible low-level prospect for Hearn when he was DFA. I understand that Lopez's utter lack of offense limits his value and was almost certainly going to get him non-tendered this winter, but he's an elite and versatile defender. Trading to the Braves for a guy Atlanta had picked up for cash just days prior was so bizarre.
Baron Aoone
1:25
What happened to Devi Garcia? He was supposed to be a rotation stud.
Steve Adams
1:26
He's a pitching prospect. Most of them break. Garcia, in particular, always had workload concerns due to his size and stature. He was always a high-risk prospect.
Pirates Fan
1:26
With the emergence of Jared Triolo, should Cherington shop Hayes this offseason?
Steve Adams
1:28
Triolo is slugging .296 and has a 30% strikeout rate. He's hit for no power, and the batting average is entirely dependent on his .411 average on balls in play, which will regress substantially.

I get that Pirates fans have been disappointed by Hayes' lack of offensive development, but he's one of the best defensive players in the game, at any position, and still makes boatloads of hard contact. Even as he is, with minimal offense, he's a useful player, and I still think there's more offense in the tank.
Jays WS winners in 23
1:29
Jays won't pick up Merrifields option? That's crazy talk. He's the best pure hitter on the team, one of the best base runners and still plays good D at 2B and LF. If I'm Whit I'm looking at 3/45 in FA. To get him 1/18 is a steal.
Steve Adams
1:30
If Merrifield thinks 3/45 is out there -- I disagree -- then he'd turn down his end of the option and become a free agent anyway.
Andrew P.
1:30
Now that I'm gone til '25, how does my team restock the rotation if Nola walks? Abel and McGarry don't seem ready and pitching is increasingly more costly to acquire.
Steve Adams
1:34
The price of pitching has gone up, but so has the Phillies' appetite for a larger payroll. They're close to $250MM this year, and they "only" have about $182MM on next year's books. It's an absurdly deep class of free-agent pitchers... Ohtani, Nola, Giolito, Snell, Urias, Stroman, Sonny Gray, Jordan Montgomery. The Orix Buffaloes are likely going to post their 25-year-old ace, Yoshinobu Yamamoto. There'll be some high-end, affordable rebound candidates too (Severino, Montas)
Plus the Phils will still have Wheeler, Suarez, Walker, Sanchez as a foundation
The Great Texas Debate
1:35
Verlander vs Scherzer: which team got the pitcher that gives them a better chance of winning the World Series?
Steve Adams
1:36
I'll take present-day Verlander. Scherzer's looked shakier than his traditional self this season. But it's also Max freaking Scherzer, so if he righted ship and went into God Mode for the final six weeks of the season and into the playoffs, I wouldn't bat an eye.
JerDip
1:37
Dipoto here, with Emerson Hancock being called up is it malpractice if i dont trade a starter to the Orioles Cards or Reds in the offseason to the highest bidder with young hitters?
Steve Adams
1:38
I don't think it's malpractice to hang onto such a talented group of arms, but I agree that the "surplus" will draw so much trade interest that there's a good chance of something coming together. Hard to envision Kirby being moved, and Gilbert isn't too far behind that in my view, but a lot of teams would love to get their hands on a Miller/Woo/Hancock as well.
Zac
1:40
Does Dylan Cease get moved this offseason?
Steve Adams
1:41
I'd say no, as of right now. He'll draw tons of interest, but the White Sox seem committed to putting a winning club back out there next year (or at least trying to). If they were going to trade him, the deadline was the time to do it, when a team would've been acquiring three playoff pushes with Cease, not two.
Your Name
1:42
Neither Joey Bart nor Jo Adell got traded?  How?
Steve Adams
1:44
Bart was the more surprising non-trade to me. More ways for the Angels to try to work Adell into that lineup long term. I think Bart will be moved in the offseason. This regime drafted Bailey, and while he's cooled of late, it still seems the front office holds him in higher regard.
Tyler Glasnow
1:44
Will I be a Ray in 2024?
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