You are viewing the chat in desktop mode. Click here to switch to mobile view.
X
Chat with MLBTR's Steve Adams: 8/27/24
powered byJotCast
Steve Adams
12:58
Happy Tuesday, all! Sorry I didn't open this one for early questions. I'm home with a sick 10-month-old today and working around his nap schedule. Worked out to chat at the same time as always, but didn't know that'd be the case this morning. I'll get rolling in a minute or two!
1:01
Let's get going
A's just announced they've DFA'ed Abraham Toro
Guardo Man
1:01
What’s going on with the guardians and their struggles and do you still envision them as a playoff team come October?
Llyr
1:01
Al wild card—- who is going to fade and who is going to pull it out in the end?
Steve Adams
1:03
Putting these together since they're both about the AL playoff picture. I think the field is largely set. You've got NYY/BAL all but locked into spots. I think it'll be the three AL Central teams in some order as well (Cleveland, MIN, KC).

For me, the final spot comes down to Houston/Seattle and who takes the West. Astros are obviously the favorite right now with the 3.5-game lead and all the momentum, but the two teams still have a 3-game series against each other left, and the Mariners have another six games against the A's, three against the Angels and seven against the Rangers.

I'd pick Houston for that spot right now, but it's still plenty conceivable that Seattle goes on a run and salvages things.
Alex Bregman
1:04
What are the chances I stay in Houston? What will my next contract look like?
Steve Adams
1:08
I don't think he's staying. He's going to require the type of contract owner Jim Crane has been reluctant to give out. Crane hasn't gone longer than five years on anyone other than Yordan Alvarez, who was in his mid-20s and was signing at a much lower AAV since his six-year, $115MM deal bought out three arbitration years.

Jose Altuve's $151MM extension is the largest total guarantee given out under Crane. I suppose it's possible Bregman lands in the 150MM range. We have a bit of a split camp on him at MLBTR. Tim Dierkes would take the under on 150. Anthony Franco is in the 150-175 range. I'm a bit higher than that, although that's presuming he continues his torrid pace to finish the current season.

I don't think it's a foregone conclusion he leaves or anything, but the Astros only offered 5/160 to Carlos Correa when he was several years younger as a free agent. Different GM then, of course, but I have a hard time seeing that same offer for Bregman when he'll be 31 in the contract's first season.
John
1:08
Do the Orioles trade Mountcastle and/or Mullins in the offseason?
Steve Adams
1:09
Mullins seems likelier to me, given the outfield depth and higher price tag
Could certainly see Mountcastle out there as well, but I'd expect more demand for Mullins (CFs are harder to find) and more motivation for the O's to move on
Rox
1:09
Condon a candidate to make the team next summer, following a similar trajectory as Dylan Crews?
Steve Adams
1:10
Yeah I think he could be up next summer.
John
1:10
Do the Orioles regret the Rogers trade? I don’t think they do, as I think they looks at Rogers as a project for the coming seasons. What are your thoughts?
Steve Adams
1:13
Darragh and I talked about this on the episode of the podcast we recorded this morning (that'll come out tomorrow). In general, I agree that they perhaps viewed Rogers as more of a 2025-26 project, but that still makes the acquisition an odd one. They have Corbin Burnes for one season. The focus should be on winning here and now. I don't think Rogers accomplished that even at the time of the trade.

It's too soon to say they regret it. We need to see if they can get him on track next year. The market didn't have many current options, so maybe they just preferred to go in-house down the stretch. But with Eflin (whose acquisition I very much liked) and GrayRod both on the shelf while Rogers has been optioned to AAA ... it sure looks like they should've gotten another more impactful present-day starter.
Easier said than done, of course, I know.
And they in all likelihood tried to do just that. It's just an odd trade to make at that time since it didn't align super neatly with short-term needs.
Cards
1:14
Who should get an extension first between Winn and Burleson?
Steve Adams
1:14
Winn's the easy priority there, for me.
Ron Simmons
1:15
Indications are the Nats are going to spend this offseason. What position player or players make the most sense to add to their emerging young core? Santander feels like a fit.
Steve Adams
1:15
Just go all-out to bring Soto back.

No, seriously.
1:17
Once the Nats are done paying Strasburg (2026), the only player on the long-term books is Keibert Ruiz. Go sign Soto. Build the OF around him, Wood and Crews. Abrams at SS. House at 3B. Garcia at 2B. That's a winning lineup. Rotation needs some help, but they have the money and/or farm to add there as well.

I don't think they'll do it, but man the stars could align for them to do something wild.
RAGBRAI
1:18
Does Snell opt out? Is so what does he ask for and who can give it to him?
Steve Adams
1:20
Snell will opt out, yes. I think the nine-figure deal will be there for him this time around. Yankees, Padres, Red Sox, Giants, Rangers all seem like realistic fits (not them alone, of course, just listing a few)
Santander, Baby
1:20
Odds Santander stays in Baltimore? Who will be big suitors?
Steve Adams
1:24
They have too much prospect depth in the corners and too many pitching needs to beat the market on Santander. He's going to be a mid-ranged slugger in terms of free agent pricing. I don't think he'll get to $100MM because of age, defensive and OBP concerns, but Nick Castellanos got 5/100 so it's at least loosely feasible. I'm more in the $80MM camp (probably over four years).

Lots of teams can stomach that pricing, but Santander's going to be a 30-year-old corner-only guy with a qualifying offer, which never plays the best on the market.

Mariners, Guardians, Astros, Tigers, Mets, Nats all make some varying degrees of sense, off the top of my head.
World of Wally
1:25
Any chance cards place Goldschmidt on waivers?
Steve Adams
1:26
He's owed $3.8MM between now and season's end, and he's hitting .189/.259/.365 this month. He'd clear even if they did.
Pumpsie
1:27
Will the A's have a league-minimum payroll next year? They've come close before, and with the Toro dfa, they're as close as ever.
Steve Adams
1:27
They'll have to spend some money to retain their status as a revenue sharing recipient
Chris
1:28
Do you see the Mets in the Burnes-Snell-Fried market this offseason?
Steve Adams
1:29
Yeah, I do. Not for all three of them, of course, and they're going to push hard for Soto as well, so they might want to wait for his market to take shape before diving into pitching. Time will tell on that. But they're going to be more aggressive this winter in general, and they'll see Severino, Quintana and probably Manaea all hit free agency. They need arms.

(This doesn't always matter a ton, but David Stearns was the president of baseball operations in Milwaukee for nearly all of Burnes' time there)
Catalina Cub
1:30
Drew Smily on waivers, do you see him being moved and if so to who? Phillies make a lot is sense to me.
Steve Adams
1:30
I don't think anyone will claim him. He's still owed around $1.5MM and also has a $2.5MM buyout on his 2025 option. A team isn't going to pay $4MM to rent Smyly for a month.
Dr. Emmit Brown
1:32
Great Scott, Mets sign soto to 12 years $540M!
Steve Adams
1:32
I think he'll get more
Chris
1:32
Could Soto hold up the rest of the market for FA bats, like Ohtani this past season? Will teams wait for Soto to make a choice before guys like Alonso, Bregman, Chapman etc. sign?
Steve Adams
1:34
Yeah, it's quite possible he could hold up the top end of the market for bats and for pitching. If you're the Mets and you badly want Soto, it's not crazy to think your fallback plan would be something like Corbin Burnes and Anthony Santander. Soto's market is going to impact all of the top free agents. That doesn't mean some won't sign before him, but it's very plausible to me that a lot of guys remain unsigned into January if Soto wants to take his time.
Twins claimed Michael Tonkin off waivers. Time is a flat circle.
MostlyToasty1
1:35
Are you guys planning any pieces soon or early into the offseason on potential KBO/NPB targets for MLB clubs?
Load More Messages
Connecting…