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Chat with MLBTR's Steve Adams: 8/13/24
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Steve Adams
1:02
Greetings all!
Sorry a link to submit early questions wasn't in The Opener this morning. That's a mistake on my end
Ryan
1:03
It's been such a night and day difference for the Padres in one run and extra innings games. Is that just dumb luck or has the move from Melvin to Schildt really made that big of a difference?
Steve Adams
1:04
It can be both, and it can also be (and is) that this year's bullpen is just better and deeper. I would lean far more toward this year's group being better and the general truth that performance in one-run games swings wildly on a year-over-year basis. I don't think a year of poor performance in those settings is an indictment on Melvin or anything.
Guardo Man
1:05
Is Jhonkensy Noel here to stay?? So much pop and aura!!
Steve Adams
1:08
His current homer-to-flyball rate isn't remotely sustainable, unless you believe he is Aaron Judge. I don't think it's possible for him to maintain this level of output when he's striking out this much, chasing off the plate this much, and walking so little.

The power is legitimate in a sense; he's drawn 70-80 grades for his raw power on scouting reports. But the free-swinging approach, lack of  discipline, etc. is going to haunt him as time goes on. He's swung at a staggering 49% of pitches off the plate.
1:09
So, I think there's some legitimacy to his power, but without improving his approach I don't know that he's going to have enough opportunities to actually get to that power. There's a lot of refinement needed, fun as his hot streak has been.
Amed Rosario
1:09
Will I be hilariously reunited with my buddy Jose in CLE since they have a black hole at SS since they shipped me off?
Steve Adams
1:10
He'd need to fall through almost every contender before reaching the Guardians' waiver priority. I think he'll get claimed before then (Pirates, Giants, Braves, Mariners all come to mind0
mind)*
Eloy Jimenez
1:11
Was I really just miserable in Chicago? Any other reason for my performance so far in Baltimore?
Steve Adams
1:12
He's not hitting the ball any harder in Baltimore and is actually hitting it on the ground even more. Anyone can look great over 25 PAs. This version of Eloy, with two-thirds of his batted balls being grounders, isn't going to hold up over a longer period of time.
Nick
1:13
Is Joey Bart's season real or a fluke? Or somewhere in the middle?
Steve Adams
1:15
There are some fluky elements to it -- he's another guy with way too many grounders -- but he's hitting the ball harder than in the past, he's walking more and he's striking out less. Those are all legitimate-looking up arrows. I don't think he's a true-talent 134 wRC+ guy, but if you told me that in 2025 he'd finish the season with respectable defense and offense that's like 10% or so better than league average, I could buy it. Really nice add for the Bucs, and creates some interesting scenarios with Henry Davis and Endy Rodriguez also there
Tony
1:15
Its been just a couple of games, but the White Sox don't look like total corpses playing for Grady Sizemore, can he manage his way into being a legitimate contender for the opening in the offseason?
Steve Adams
1:16
Chris Getz said he plans to hire someone from outside the org. Maybe Grady can change his mind in the next six weeks, but I think it's likelier that they go external.
Andrew
1:16
In a year, will all Mariners fans be regretting the Robles extension?
Steve Adams
1:17
Shrug. It's $9MM for a guy whose glove and speed creates a decent floor. They basically did with him what the Royals did with Michael A. Taylor (another former Nats CF!). Even if Robles crashes and burns, they're paying him like a middle reliever for two seasons. I don't think you can really be too upset about that even if it doesn't work out.
Tom Kelly's blues
1:18
Any Rich Hill updates? Twins dire need of innings eater(s). How will Zebby do?
Steve Adams
1:19
If I/we had anything concrete on Hill -- or if there were any meaningful reports on him -- we'd have that on the site. He worked out for teams, looked pretty good by all accounts, and is getting interest from a handful of clubs. He wants to make sure he's pitching on a contender and fresh down the stretch. If he waits a week or so to sign and sees how the standings further take shape, that's understandable.
OZUNA SNUB
1:20
Otahni-298-36-85-1.007=MVP Favorite
OZUNA 302-35-90-965=Not in top 5 MVP Race?
Steve Adams
1:21
Ohtani has 33 steals to Ozuna's 0, is beating him by 12 points in OBP and 30 points in slugging, and he's taken 30 more plate appearances:

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=al...

He's also doing that in a more pitcher-friendly ball park. Ozuna's been great, but I don't think it's outlandish at all to claim that Ohtani is having a comfortably better season.
1:22
Also, I think Ozuna would be in most peoples' top fives right now, for what it's worth.
Matt Chapman
1:23
Since May 1,  I am touting a .257/.360/.473 batting line,  homered 15 times, walked at an impressive 13.1% clip and cut my strikeout rate from last year’s 28.4% down to 24.3% in that stretch.  If I am opt out ,  how much better could I do than the 2 years, $34M remaining?
Steve Adams
1:23
When* he opts out (at least barring a complete tank job down the stretch or a major injury)
1:24
He's back in the $100MM vicinity for me, and I don't see any reason he'd come in shy of $80MM.
T(win)s
1:25
Matt Wallner seems to be flying under the radar since his return but the power has been legit.  His avg will plummet but can he avoid becoming Gallo 2.0 with that K rate?
Steve Adams
1:27
I don't think so, and Gallo was the better defender. Wallner has been on a tear, but his hot streak is propped up by a BABIP over .500. He's K'ing in 36% of his plate appearances since his recall, I think. The power is enormous, but he has to cut back on the K's or the overall production is going to tank.

There are some similarities here with Noel, who I previously mentioned, but Wallner is walking more than twice as often as Noel and chasing half as often, so I wouldn't expect the extent of his regression to be as steep.
Hunter Greene
1:27
Am I in the Cy Young conversation yet? On the fringe outskirts at least?
Steve Adams
1:28
He's absolutely in there and should be more than on the outskirts. He's not a favorite, but I'd have him top 5 in the NL right now, and it's a tight enough group that with a huge finish and/or some collapses by other contenders, he could legitimately be a candidate.
Nick Martinez
1:28
Am I making a case to stay in the rotation and do I/should I opt out of my player contract?
Steve Adams
1:30
I think he'll opt out and do better than the $16MM -- probably not on an annual basis, but if he signs something like another 2/32 or maybe 3/39, that's a better outcome than taking the one year at 16.
dfa/waivers
1:30
I can't keep track of what's what these days...is this the thing where teams try to trade for rosario or is it just waiver order?
Steve Adams
1:31
Waivers, as I wrote and laid out in the post on Rosario's DFA:
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/08/dodgers-dfa-amed-rosario-activa...

Full August player movement breakdown here:
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/07/how-to-acquire-players-after-ml...
Remember Jim Parque?
1:31
Do the Cubs go after Corbin Burnes? Burnes, Steele, Imanaga and Taillion is very solid
Steve Adams
1:32
That would indeed be quite solid, but Burnes would likely require them to set a new franchise record for largest contract by a pretty wide margin. That's currently Heyward's 184MM, and I think Burnes could realistically cost $70MM more than that, depending on how he finishes
1:33
Angels claimed Nick Robertson from the Cards and Brock Burke from the Rangers
And Phillies announced that Nick Nelson passed through waivers unclaimed.
Adam
1:33
Walker Buehler getting a QO? Would he accept?
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