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Chat with MLBTR's Steve Adams: 7/1/25
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Steve Adams
8:51
Good morning! We'll get going at 1pm CT, but feel free to send in questions ahead of time, as always.
1:01
Good afternoon!
Grover
1:01
if anyone does pick up candelario who will it be
Steve Adams
1:01
Brewers, Astros, Mariners could all take a more or less free look while they wait for more appealing options to become available on the trade market.
Dinelson Lament
1:02
Assuming he stays healthy and reaches free agency, what type of contract might Skubal command in the 2026-2027 off season?
Steve Adams
1:02
Something north of $400MM
Ben
1:02
Will Eugenio Suarez cost a top 100 prospect, considering no top 100 prospects were traded at last year's deadline, including for multi-year controllable players, while Geno is a rental?
Steve Adams
1:05
"Top 100" prospect are subjective. There are several different lists, and the gap between the No. 100 prospect and the No. 130 prospect is pretty negligible. The Tigers probably had Thayron Liranzo as a top-100 guy when they got him as the Flaherty headliner last year. He was generally considered a 50 FV prospect, which is where all back-of-the-top-100 guys are. Within a few weeks, he was on most top-100 lists.

Top-100 rankings are far more volatile than a lot of people give them credit for, and they kind of inherently misrepresent that there's a larger gap between 100 and 150 than there really is. (Or between, say, 60 and 100, for that matter).

At any rate, I don't think Suarez will command a 50 FV type of prospect, but a 45 type headlining the deal wouldn't surprise me.
Utah Fan
1:05
Who gets traded by the TWINS at the deadline, if their recent decline continues?
Steve Adams
1:06
Willi Castro, Chris Paddack, Harrison Bader, Danny Coulombe all make sense. Someone might grab Ty France as a cheap RH bat off the bench.
Phil
1:06
What do the Phillies prioritize more, a relief arm or high impact bat?
Steve Adams
1:06
Dave Dombrowski himself said bullpen arms just last week:
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2025/06/phillies-trade-rumors-bullpen-h...
Scott
1:07
Will the Padres be buyers or sellers? I think they will be sellers as the pathetic offensive display has been going on for a while now and unloading a few contracts can help them for next season.
Steve Adams
1:07
They're one game back from a Wild Card spot. They're not selling without a huge collapse.
Bendix
1:07
If the Marlins keep up this hot steak, though obviously not winning every game. Will they be inclined to not sell off the veterans they have and at least be in a holding pattern or do you still see them as selling completely regardless?
Steve Adams
1:08
Selling regardless. Maybe the scope of the sale won't be quite so great if they can get within 2-3 games of .500, but I don't think Peter Bendix & Co. are looking at this roster and thinking, "Yeah, we can make a playoff run here."
Ken
1:09
More likely to be traded: Severino or Springs?
Steve Adams
1:10
Springs. The contract is just easier to move and he's pitching better. The A's overpaid to get Severino, and now he's unhappy and not pitching well at home. Both parties would probably like to move on, but I can't imagine the A's are excited to include cash to pay down his contract. Maybe they could swap him out for a bad contract elsewhere, but they feel kind of stuck with one another for right now.
The Duke
1:11
What is Luis Robert Jr worth at this point? Lottery ticket or two?
Steve Adams
1:11
A lottery ticket if the White Sox pay down pretty much all of the remaining guaranteed money.
brian
1:12
Bednar, Keller or both?
Steve Adams
1:12
As in, who's likelier to be traded? Bednar (and Dennis Santana) are much likelier to go than Keller. I'd be surprised if Bednar or Santana stayed in Pittsburgh beyond the deadline. Keller has a real chance to go, but with 3+ years left on the contract, there's no urgency to do it now.
Buy or Sell
1:13
Angels
Steve Adams
1:15
Should sell, but owner Arte Moreno lives in an alternate universe and will talk himself into being one piece away despite being a bottom-five team in batting average, on-base percentage, strikeout percentage and walk percentage on offense and a bottom-five team in FIP, strikeout rate, walk rate and SIERA both in the rotation and bullpen (and a bottom-five bullpen ERA/bottom-10 rotation ERA)
1:16
The Angels are where they are because they keep winning one-run games. They've been very fortunate with health on the pitching side of things but have minimal depth on either side of the roster. This isn't a team that should be sacrificing future value to win in the short term, but that hasn't stopped Moreno in the past.
Adam Steves
1:17
Then Arty should trade Mike Trout?
Steve Adams
1:17
They're not trading Trout
Trout has a full no-trade clause, has never given the indication he wants to move, and his contract is far greater than anything he'd get in free agency right now. Arte Moreno isn't going to pay tens of millions of dollars to make Trout, a franchise icon, go away.
MLBTR
1:18
Could MLBTR start doing MLB mock drafts? With the draft approaching…I think it’d be really fun & interactive if MLBTR started to do this!
Steve Adams
1:19
The draft isn't a big area of focus for us. Can't trade picks outside comp balance picks, and we'd need to hire someone specifically to cover what would be a niche topic even among our already niche (relative to broader baseball fandom anyway) readership.
Will Lehnertz
1:20
Will Bregman get traded? Seems like the Mariners are interested given the recent Adam Jude Article.
Steve Adams
1:23
Adam Jude is a (very good) reporter with the Seattle Times for those unfamiliar. But really, all he said was if the Red Sox decide to move him -- there's no indication that'd happen -- the Mariners would probably have interest. He specifically called a Bregman trade a long shot. I agree.

I feel I take one or more of these questions every week, but people keep asking, so I suppose I'll continue.

Trading players with opt-out clauses (which Bregman has) is *extremely* difficult. It's almost pure downside for the acquiring team. You either get a veteran player who comes in, performs well, and opts back into free agency at season's end ... or he gets hurt/tanks, forgoes the opt-out, and you're stuck with the extra year(s). And the selling team will be asking for legitimate prospects, while you know you're at best getting a rental and at worst giving up those prospects for what'll turn into a bad contract.
1:24
Bregman's $40MM AAV, even with deferrals, would also be extremely hard for the Mariners to absorb. I'm sure they'd want the Red Sox to include cash, which only further muddies things. Ownership gave the Mariners $15-16MM total to add 2-3 bats this offseason. I cannot see them suddenly saying "Actually, that $40MM AAV feels fine now that we're four games over .500 in July."
3K Club
1:25
After Kershaw, who is the next to 3k strikeouts?
Steve Adams
1:26
Chris Sale and Gerrit Cole can both get there. After that, it's tougher. Aaron Nola probably has the next-best chance. Kevin Gausman would be a long shot, but maybe he pitches into his 40s?
Freddy
1:26
Any chance Byron Buxton gets moved?
Steve Adams
1:26
Full no-trade clause and Twins aren't looking to tear everything down. He'll stay regardless.
birdbats
1:27
what are the odds Arenado is traded
Steve Adams
1:27
Borderline nonexistent. No one wants that contract, and the teams that could most plausibly stomach it, in a vacuum, are the ones who are already in the top tier of luxury penalization and would thus pay a 110% tax on the remaining AAV.
Mike Elias
1:28
I have several potential QO candidates, which ones do I offer it too (O’Hearn, Efflin, Sugano, Mullins)? Obviously disregarding those that will be traded in the next month.
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