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Chat with MLBTR's Steve Adams: 6/13/23
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Steve Adams
8:54
Good morning all! Looking forward to another Tuesday chat. I'll get this started at 1pm, but feel free to ask some questions in advance.
1:00
Greetings! Let's get underway
Elmer Fudd
1:01
With the Cubs disappointing season what should they do at the deadline? Wisdom needs to go striking out over 30% of the time. Starting pitching is not great and the bullpen is even worse. Front office should be to blame and I don’t know if Strowman should be traded or extended
Steve Adams
1:04
It doesn't sound like there's much thought from the team to extending Stro. Marcus himself effectively said as much this weekend:
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/06/mlbtr-poll-will-lack-of-extensi...

The opt-out clause will dampen their return for him -- it's pure downside for the acquiring team -- but I still think he'll be traded if the Cubs are a decent ways out of the playoff picture. Stroman's already received one QO in his career, so he can't receive another. If they hold onto him, he walks for nothing.

Wisdom's K's are nothing new. This is who he is. He can clobber LHP, play the corners, and is useful in a limited role but miscast as an everyday player.

Trades of Stroman, Gomes, Bellinger, Smyly and some relievers will be on the table if the Cubs don't turn things around.
Chris Flexen
1:04
It seems like every time the Mariners give me a chance to build some value for a trade, I end up giving multiple runs and ruining any value I still have. Did the league just figure me out and I haven't been able to adjust back?
Steve Adams
1:08
Yeah there's not a lot of trade value in Flexen at this point. He was never someone with a lot of margin for error, given his low strikeout rate, and his walk rate is nearly double what it was in his first year with the M's. He's also lost a bit of velo when working out of the rotation and been more homer-prone, which again speaks to command issues. We tend to think of walks as the main negative when we talk about control issues for a pitcher, but being unable to locate within the zone and thus leaving too many hittable pitches (in Flexen's case, often a 91-92 mph heater) that turn into mistakes.

I don't think he had major trade value in the offseason. All teams, including the Mariners, likely expected some degree of regression. But, he had more than he does now most likely.
Distraught Ms fan
1:08
Can the Mariners still make a postseason push? If so, what player do you think they could realistically acquire to help out offensively?
Steve Adams
1:10
A year ago the Mariners were 27-34. Of course they can still make a playoff push. They have enough positional flexibility and DH leeway that they can/should just pursue the best bat(s) on the market rather than dial in on "we need an upgrade at this specific position"
Giants Fan
1:10
You have any thoughts about Joey Bart’s future (or lack thereof) with the Giants?
Steve Adams
1:14
With Bailey hitting well under the regime that drafted him -- Bart was drafted prior to Zaidi being hired in San Francisco -- I do wonder if Bart's time in San Francisco is winding down. He's the perfect buy-low guy for a team like the Marlins, who need a catcher and don't have a ton in the pipeline. Guardians could use help back there, too, though they have an MLB-ready prospect in Bo Naylor (who they're just inexplicably refusing to give a real chance).

I still think Bart has a chance to be an everyday catcher, but that might not come in San Francisco now that Bailey is up.

Bailey's got some regression coming too, with the near 30% strikeout rate and .430ish BABIP, but he's making good contact, playing good defense and is a product of the current front office's decision-making rather than a carryover from the prior group.
Zack Mckinstry
1:14
Could I really be available like y'alls astros article the other day suggested?
Steve Adams
1:16
I don't think the Tigers will be closed off to much of anything, barring a major turnaround, outside of selling low on Greene, Torkelson, Mize, Skubal, etc.

I don't think McKinstry would really be a prime trade candidate; I was more just running through some options the Astros could look into. That said, he's a platoon-limited utility player they acquired for cash. He's kind of "found money" to them. I don't think it's likely, but he's not the type of player who's typically "off limits"
Falvine
1:17
How much longer of a leash does Pagan have???
Steve Adams
1:17
I have long since given up on trying to decipher the Twins' fixation on Emilio Pagan
Biggin
1:18
What should the Orioles do with Ryan Mountcastle?
Steve Adams
1:21
He's making plenty of hard contact, but the results aren't there in part because the approach is just ugly. He's chasing 44% of pitches off the plate and swinging at 58% of pitches in general; the MLB averages are 31% and 47%, respectively. He's never been someone who's going to draw a ton of walks or have a big OBP, but he should be a much better hitter than this. It's hard to revamp that approach entirely on the fly in the big leagues; Mountcastle has minor league options remaining. It's tough to send down someone who was pretty much locked into his roster spot on Opening Day, but if he can't show some refinement he's not going to give them much of a choice.
1st place Buccos
1:21
Nobody expects Cherrington to buy big at the deadline, but with the Pirates' dearth of high minors SP depth and what looks like an overload of young IF talent, does he swing a deal for someone like Kopech?
Steve Adams
1:23
Acquiring Kopech would 100% be "buying big." I don't think the White Sox are going to make him available, but he's a 27-year-old former elite prospect with two years of control beyond the current season who is also on a tear on the mound at the moment (1.72 ERA, 44-to-5 K/BB over his past 33 1/3 innings). The asking price would be and should be enormous.
Tim
1:24
Jesse winker has fallen a long way.  What wrong with him?
Steve Adams
1:24
Spinal surgery and knee surgery in the same offseason sounds like it'd be tough to bounce back from
its my wedding anniversary pls answer thx
1:24
The Marlins need a catcher. Ivan Herrera has been on a tear at AAA. does he bring the cardinals a *good* controllable starter?
Steve Adams
1:25
Herrera-for-[Young Marlins SP] is probably my No. 1 "this is so obvious I can't believe it hasn't already happened" trade scenario in baseball right now.
1:26
Someone should trade for Herrera and give him a shot anyway, even if not Miami. But the Marlins make as much sense, if not more sense, than any team in the league as a partner, given their system's own strengths and lack of any real upper-level catching prospect of note.
Bryce Miller
1:26
Am I going to be sent back down to the minors?
Steve Adams
1:26
He's been utterly dominant in six of his eight starts and struggled badly in the other two. The overall results are quite good. He's one of Seattle's five best starters right now. I don't see why they'd send him down.
Gadzooks
1:27
Still waiting on Christian Encarnacion Strand in Cincy; not much left for him to do in Louisville. ETA?
Steve Adams
1:31
When there's an injury in the infield that necessitates it? That's what got Elly to the Majors.

The Reds are taking long looks at De La Cruz, McLain and Steer alongside India. They're all playing well. I'm sure they'd still like to see CES work on his defense and continue to refine his approach. He's drawn 16 of his 19 walks in the past two weeks, and part of me wonders whether some of that is just pitchers deciding not to mess with him, ha. As of May 25, he'd walked three times in 130 PAs.

I imagine he'll get a look this summer, but the Reds probably want to ensure there are everyday ABs for him whenever he comes up, and that might be tougher right now with all the other young infielders currently getting looks. Overall, it very much falls under the "good problem to have" trope.
Walter
1:32
If the Guardians are out, is Beiber the most tradable commodity? Don't  see anyone seeking Rosario, Bell and Zunino.
Steve Adams
1:34
There's a decent chance Bieber's available regardless. He's making $10MM this year and due another raise in the offseason that Cleveland probably won't be super excited to pay.

I think the return on Bieber's going to be seen as a disappointment, though. He's pitching like a fourth starter. The 3.29 ERA is nice, but his K% is less than half what it was at its peak and is now well below the league average. His once-elite command is still good but, well... not elite. He's averaging 91.5 mph on the fastball. He's not cheap. He doesn't have much club control left.

I just don't think he's going to bring them a premium return, but I think the Guards might just pull the trigger anyway. Given their penchant for developing pitchers, they'll probably manage to coax a couple of viable big league arms out of the deal even if they don't get any prospects of note in return.
The Sheriff
1:34
Is Chris paddack a reclemation project for someone or will the twins hold onto him
Steve Adams
1:35
They didn't sign him to a three-year, $12MM extension earlier this year just to give him away to another team looking for a buy-low opportunity.
Rich
1:36
Rays one of the teams to go after Chapman?
Steve Adams
1:36
They'll be in, to varying extents, on just about every bullpen arm that's made available. I'm sure they'll be in on Chapman but there's no sense in labeling anyone any kind of favorite in that regard at this point.
Jamie
1:37
Would a trade by the Orioles of gunnar,and DL Hall get a top 2 pitcher?Would that be enough to get a controllable pitcher for at least 2 years?
Steve Adams
1:38
This is the second time in as many weeks that I've gotten numerous questions about the O's possibly trading Gunnar Henderson ... who is now hitting .321/.361/.641 dating back to mid-May.

I don't see any scenario where the Orioles trade him. He's a building block there.
Jake Cronenworth
1:39
Is my contract untradeable?
Steve Adams
1:43
I don't think there are going to be too many teams lining up to bid on it, ha, but I don't think it's some kind of irredeemable disaster. Cronenworth is having his worst year but is still getting on base and can still play multiple positions. There are far worse contracts out there, and I doubt the Padres are itching to trade him so soon after signing him anyhow.

I think there's some rebound in store for him.
Joe
1:43
Daniel Murphy is a really interesting story. Do you think there is a chance he gets added to the major league roster at some point? I'd guess the Angels wouldn't have signed him they didn't think it was possible.
Steve Adams
1:44
He hit .331/.410/.451 in the Atlantic League, which was enough for the Halos to take a look in AAA. To your point, they wouldn't have signed him if there wasn't a chance he'd be up in the big leagues -- perhaps sooner than later.
Cubs
1:44
it seems likely stro gets traded, but do you think it’s more likely Bellinger is extended, hit with a QO, or traded at this deadline?
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