Chat with MLBTR's Steve Adams: 5/5/26
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Steve Adams
12:51
Good afternoon! I'll get underway at the top of the hour, but feel free to start sending in questions ahead of time.
1:00
Let's get going
White Sox
1:00
Since a 1-5 start, Sox are 16-13. Do you think they'll finish within 3 games of .500 or better?
Steve Adams
1:02
No. I just don't think the pitching staff can support that level of winning. None of Burke, Martin, Kay or Fedde are average big league starters. Noah Schultz is super fun, and he very well could be, but he's far from a sure thing yet and I expect some growing pains for him with the command issues.
John
1:02
It’s too late to trade Mayo and Cowser imo. Do they have any value? Kjerstad as well. This team is so frustrating
Steve Adams
1:03
Orioles *could* still trade any of the three, but not for a ton, to your point. I don't really get what their plan was with Mayo and Kjerstad. They kept signing/acquiring guys to plug in ahead of them on the depth chart but also always seemed loath to discuss them in trades. I guess Cowser at least got a shot -- I just don't think he's a big league regular at this point.
m
1:03
should the giants make a trade or two to upgrade the bullpen
Steve Adams
1:07
They've performed better than I expected them to, but a lot of it is flimsy. Too many performances with no strikeouts and tons of walks (Brubaker, Gage) ... that they somehow have the second-best bullpen ERA in the sport right now amazes me. I doubt that continues.

They should absolutely be trying to bring in some arms, but that was true all offseason, both in the rotation and the 'pen, and they chose to ignore the 'pen entirely and go with low-upside options to round out the starting staff. Didn't get it then, don't get it now.
Sean Burke
1:08
How am I not an average major league starter?
Steve Adams
1:10
He's probably the best of that group, but he's still working with roughly average velo, a well below-average swinging-stirke rate and a below-average strikeout rate. Good BABIP and HR/FB fortune thus far. I suppose he could settle in as a 4.00 ERA-ish guy, so maybe it was a bit harsh to lump him in with the others, but the general point was that he's due for a good bit of regression, especially if he can't sustain the massive command gains he's enjoyed this year.
Metso Ball Soup
1:11
Why are most trades done at the deadline now? What happened to May-June trades?
Steve Adams
1:13
Modern front offices wait until the last possible second with any and every deadline. They can't even make run-of-the-mill DFAs in November until 30 seconds before the non-tender deadline. Everyone is obsessed with marginal gains and making sure you're using as much data as possible to inform any decision.

The expanded playoff field, of course, impacts that as well. If you can be around .500 come the deadline, you're loosely in playoff contention, so not many clubs are willing to make sell-side trades early on.

And those that ARE willing to do so can't drum up a full market for their players, because so many teams are in wait-and-see mode until late July.
Chisox Fan
1:13
Davis Martin has been one of the best pitchers in baseball this year.
Steve Adams
1:14
He has one of the best ERAs in baseball over 6-7 starts,  but that's not the same thing as being one of the best pitchers in baseball.
Pine Tar Pete
1:14
Is Jon Gray still out there looking for work or did he retire?
Steve Adams
1:15
He had a thoracic outlet diagnosis late last season and was noncommittal at the time about continuing his career. He hasn't formally retired, but if he were actively seeking a contract I have to think he'd have made it known he had the surgery, was setting up bullpens or showcases for scouts to watch, etc.
Forgive my unbelief
1:16
The Cardinals aren't for real are they?  Surely the young hitters cant keep bailing out the terrible rotation and BP???????
Cards Steve
1:16
Do you see St Louis maintaining + .500 ball for the season, or will this eventually end?
Steve Adams
1:18
A lot of these types of questions re: St. Louis.

I think it's a bottom-five rotation in the game, and the bullpen drops off hard after Riley O'Brien. I don't see how they can stay in it with this pitching staff, but hey, Jordan Walker finally looks great and JJ Wetherholt is as advertised, so there are plenty of encouraging things about the Cards even if/when the wheels fall of for the pitching staff.
OhBo...
1:19
How bad can a hitter be and still have a job in the majors this day and age?  I am looking at you Bo Naylor?
Steve Adams
1:19
Be a great defensive catcher on a team that prioritizes catcher defense more than any team in MLB. Works out for not only Naylor but also Austin Hedges!
Brewer Fan
1:20
At what point is Sal Frelick a problem? I love Sal, I know he is a great defender, but that bat is something awful.
Steve Adams
1:23
If you want to cherry-pick, he's at .270/.356/.432 over his past 50 PAs or so. I think he's fine. He's never going to be a great hitter, but he puts the ball in play a ton and has enough pop for 10-15 homers with plus defense and good baserunning.

He's hitting too many grounders and he hit a bunch of pop-ups early on, both of which have dragged down his BABIP (.211), but I generally think he'll be a solid regular, even if it's glove-over-hit
wirefan
1:24
Assuming both cole and Rodon make it back soon....  Weathers to the pen? Can't see warren losing his spot
Steve Adams
1:25
I assume whoever goes to the 'pen -- Warren or Weathers -- will only be their short term. Another injury will create a need at some point. Both Weathers and Warren are pitching too well to be "demoted," but I suppose them's the breaks. Good problem to have for Cashman & Co.
JeffyM82
1:26
If Skubal doesn't make it back to an MLB mound this year, what does his free agency look like?  Will a team give him a longterm high AAV deal just based on the resume?  Or does he accept the QO or a 1 year deal?
Steve Adams
1:27
Definitely won't take a QO. I'm sure he'd have plenty of high-AAV, two- and three-year opt-out deals put in front of him, plus probably some teams willing to go long-term (but at a lesser rate than if he'd just been healthy all season).

I tend to think he's still going to end up getting paid a ton. We'll see how the rehab goes, of course. If he comes back throwing 92-93 and gets clobbered for a 5.50 ERA in his final 10 starts or something, well.... yeah. My opinion changes then, ha.

In general, he's just so talented, and this isn't something so scary as a capsule tear in his shoulder or a ligament, etc.
Tony
1:28
Is Erceg still the closer in KC when Estevez returns?
Steve Adams
1:29
I'd prefer Erceg to Estevez, but Erceg's command has been awful this season, too. Assuming you're asking for fantasy purposes, I'd just pick up Daniel Lynch for the rate stats and hope Kansas City eventually moves him into the ninth.
bmcferren
1:29
Nick Gonzales is playing out of his shoes?
Steve Adams
1:30
Feels very fluky to me. BABIP north of .400, no power, poor walk rate. Makes a decent amount of contact, but he's averaging 86.7 mph off the bat with a grounder rate over 50%. It's not a recipe for keeping this up
Doc Metal
1:31
Do you think Thomas White will be promoted to the Marlins rotation in the second half? Thanks Steve
Steve Adams
1:32
I'd think sooner than that. Sounds like it'll be Garrett or Snelling this weekend in Paddack's old spot, but injuries will pop up and White's probably just better than some of the guys on the current staff already (Junk, specifically)
Chris
1:32
Who gets called up 1st Colt Emerson or Aiden Miller?
Steve Adams
1:32
Emerson. Miller has been out all year with a back injury.
o-birds
1:33
Mike Elias has made a mess of the Orioles, pitching wins games and he did nothing to improve the rotation Baz and Bassit haven't been that good , it's still early but are the Orioles still in it?
Steve Adams
1:36
I mean, I wouldn't say he did nothing. He added Baz and Bassitt, as you said. I liked Baz as an upside play but thought they paid a pretty steep price. Hasn't panned out obviously. I loved the Bassitt signing in a vacuum, but for the O's, I'd rather have seen them go out and add a more concrete upgrade.

I do think it's fair to say his pitching additions were underwhelming, which has too frequently been the case for the O's. I know they made multi-year offers to Ranger Suarez and Corbin Burnes in free agency, but they haven't won the bidding on a notable free agent pitcher or paid up in a trade for anyone who's controllable long-term -- and to what end? Yes, they've avoided parting with a lot of prospects ... but as noted before, a lot of those prospects no longer look to be very good.
1:38
This isn't a knock on Elias specifically, but today's brand of GM/president of bb ops feels pretty risk-averse. They seem like they'd much prefer to buy low on someone and have that go up in smoke than spend money/prospects on a more sure thing. Both are pitfall-laden paths, but Elias is far from the only BB ops leader who errs toward this end of the spectrum. Most of the league operates like this.

Need some more Prellers, Dipotos and Dombrowskis to come in and mix things up.
Sell Jim Crane
1:39
Do you think the Astros will sell at the deadline? I feel that Crane is the Jerry Jones of this sport and will never rebuild.
Steve Adams
1:39
I feel like they SHOULD.

I also agree with you that Crane feels like an owner who will scoff at such a notion and dig his heels in further, haha.
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