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Chat with MLBTR's Steve Adams: 5/16/23
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Steve Adams
8:50
Good morning all! We'll get this underway at 1pm CT, but feel free to submit some questions in advance if you'd like. Looking forward to it, as always!
1:01
Happy Tuesday -- Let's get this thing moving!
Bellinger
1:01
Let's assume that everything from results come back clear today and there is no IL stint.    At what point do the Cubs start shopping or fielding offers for Bellinger?   They've been somewhat successful with flips in the recent past.
Steve Adams
1:03
Trades of notable players in May are extremely rare, and they're not much more common in June. I doubt any serious talks would get going until July, and even then, who knows how Bellinger will be performing?

I've said multiple times and still maintain that I'm not fully buying the rebound. He's cut his strikeout rate considerably, and that's a great indicator, but Bellinger isn't hitting the ball hard at all; his average exit velo and hard-hit rates are well below-average and way off his norms. Peak Bellinger averaged better than 91 mph off the bat. He's currently at 86.9 mph
And if you look at his past three weeks or so, the numbers aren't great
1:04
.239/.291/.423 over his past 79 PAs with a K% that's climbing (24.1% in that time compared to 14.3% prior)
Houzer
1:04
If in 4 weeks that Tigers are still flirting with 1st place in the Central, is it wiser to sell ERod and be realistic about the seasons outcome? Or hold and add a piece in order to try to win the Central and build some culture?
Steve Adams
1:06
I just don't think E-Rod is going to be all that easy to trade. Any club that trades for him knows he's either going to continue pitching well and opt out -- which I now find likely -- or he's going to get hurt or turn into a pumpkin (I don't think the latter scenario is likely) and they're then stuck with the next 3 years and 49MM. It's really hard to trade players with player options and opt-outs.

I think the best course of action is to just hold onto him and hope for the best results on a team scale in 2023, but if he's still pitching like a Cy Young candidate and the team has tanked around him, then sure you can try to trade him. It'll just be hard to find common ground on his value.
1:07
The Tigers had a hard time finding common ground on Andrew Chafin last year because he has a one-year player option; the three-year opt-out is far more convoluted and harder to work around.
Trade talk
1:07
Do you think the Braves would ever trade Acuña? What do you think it would take to get him if they were to consider it?
Steve Adams
1:08
At some point further down the road in his contract, perhaps. But right now it's so far removed from the realm of possibility that I don't think it's worth your time to try to dream up a trade package.
Jose Miranda
1:08
Who is out when Royce Lewis is done with his rehab assignment? Asking for a friend.
Steve Adams
1:11
It's all fluid. I think there's a lot of hand-wringing over short-term scenarios like this, when they're often resolved by other injuries. That's applicable to pretty much all teams. For a Twins-specific example, for awhile it was "how are they going to get both Kirilloff and Larnach in the lineup?" Then Kirilloff got hurt. Then Larnach struggled and got optioned. Now they're both up and hitting well.

Lewis might take over at 3B if he hits well for the rest of the month in AAA. Miranda might still come back as a 1B/3B/DH option if Solano gets hurt or DFA or if Kiriloff gets hurt, etc. I don't think Miranda being optioned after some early struggles closes the book on him being a viable contributor for the Twins, and in general, teams are embracing regular playing time in multi-position roles, so being "blocked" by someone else at 3B doesn't matter as much.
Cesar Salinas
1:12
Any word on Corey Seager's activation from IL?
Steve Adams
1:12
I imagine the Rangers will announce it within the next couple hours
Giant Sellers
1:13
Who would be your top three Giants Traded at the dead line? I’d say 1. Alex Cobb 2. JD Davis 3. LaMonte Wade
Steve Adams
1:15
If they sell, I'd probably call Cobb the likeliest. Wood, too, since he's a pending free agent. John Brebbia as well (ERA is rough right now but I expect it to have come down by then)

JD Davis or Anthony DeSclafani are both certainly possibilities, but both are controllable (or in DeSclafani's case, signed) through 2024. I suppose that's true of Cobb, too, via his option, but he'll be 36 in October so I imagine they're more open to moving him.
1:16
Tigers just announced that they claimed RHP Seth Elledge off waivers from the Mets.
Beau Brieske to the 60-day IL to open a 40-man spot.
Barney Coolio
1:16
In the likely event Hosmer gets released, do you think teams will keep picking him up as a cheap lottery ticket?
Steve Adams
1:17
Guy keeps catching on. I know teams love the personality and leadership, so probably. He's a potentially league-average bat, perhaps slightly better, with a universally beloved personality it seems. And you're getting him at league-minimum.

Someone with an injury at 1B probably scoops him up.
Braves20
1:17
Sixty days (Fried and Wright) is a long time. How soon will AA act and who are potential trading partners?
Steve Adams
1:19
It's 60 days from the original placement on the IL, not from the day they're moved to the 60-day. But yeah, both guys are looking like they'll be out well into the summer.

Anthopoulos basically said last week that he doesn't envision making a trade anytime soon. Most teams just aren't looking seriously at the trade market this early. It's how the business works. I wish more trades happened earlier; it'd be more fun. But that's not how it goes.

For now, expect a lot of Shuster, Dodd and eventually Soroka. They'll patch things over in-house. If there's another injury, maybe they grab some struggling starter who's DFA/released by another club (a Luis Cessa type), but I wouldn't expect them to make any notable acquisitions anytime soon.
Rox
1:20
Does Kyle Tucker break $200 million on his next contract, and will it be with the Astros?
Steve Adams
1:20
I will say yes and no, respectively.
Bartolo Colon
1:21
I have to be a better option than David Peterson to make starts for the Mets.  Even after bouncing my recent first pitch.
Steve Adams
1:23
Lots of Peterson hate out there, and understandable with the poor results. I still think he'll be fine long-term. The strikeout, walk and ground-ball rates are all better than average, and just about every pitcher who can run out above-average marks in those departments winds up pitching well.

Peterson has a .404 average on balls in play even though he's not giving up an exorbitant amount of hard contact. He's averaging 1.85 homers per nine and seeing 26% of his fly-balls leave the yard despite coming into the season with career marks of 1.09 and 15.8% in those categories.
1:24
I know fans hate the "it's bad luck he'll get better" explanation for struggling pitchers, but I do think a lot of Peterson's struggles are fluky.
.400
1:24
Does Arraez pull it off?
Steve Adams
1:27
He entered the season as a career .314 hitter. There's no realistic reason to expect he can add nearly 90 points to that mark, particularly with even less power than he'd displayed in Minnesota (albiet only slightly less right now).

He's already dipped well below .400, hitting .212/.257/.242 over his past eight games, and stretches like that are inevitable. He'll probably hit well over .300, but remaining in the .400 vicinity was never likely.

I don't think we'll ever see a .400 hitter again over a full season. Pitching and defensive positioning are just too good now.
Cardinals
1:28
What about swapping Nootbaar for a guy like McKenzie Gore? Could that be a building block for a trade?
Steve Adams
1:29
I would be stunned if the Cardinals traded Nootbaar. More so than with any of their other outfielders.
(Well, Jordan Walker excluded)
DFan
1:29
While Correa has recently shown some signs of life, he has been generally awful. Is this what we can expect ROS?
Steve Adams
1:30
Correa started slow in 2022 as well. He's K/BB numbers are still fine, he's making plenty of hard contact. He'll be fine.
David
1:30
Would five years/ $120 million get it done for a Stroman extension?
Steve Adams
1:33
He's already signed for $21MM next season (though he can opt out), so you're looking at adding 4 years and $99MM on top of that -- a contract that'd begin in his age-33 season.

Stroman took 3/71 with an opt-out last time and is largely the same pitcher as he was back then. I think he'd sign that, but while I'm a bigger Stroman guy than most (all?) of my colleagues at MLBTR, I don't think the Cubs would offer it.
King Tuck
1:33
If I don't re-sign with Houston as you suggested, where would I go?
Steve Adams
1:34
Wayyyyyy too early to know that. But Astros ownership seems averse to going down the road of 8-, 9-, 10-year contracts etc. -- and Tucker is a 26-year-old star OF who'll be a free agent in advance of his age-29 season, so that type of deal will be in play.
Troy Van
1:36
Eduardo Rodriguez is due to make an average of like $18 million a season. Let’s say he has a great season. Not a Cy Young season, but he’s mentioned as a finalist. How much does is he worth as a free agent?
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