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Chat with MLBTR's Steve Adams: 3/7/23
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Steve Adams
8:19
Morning everyone! I'll be back at noon to kick this off, but feel free to start asking questions in advance.
12:03
Hey all! Let's get underway
12:04
Gary Bennett's still chatting as well, so you're forgiven if you'd rather chat with a former Major League catcher than uh, well, me.
Gary's chatting over here if you'd like to pull up double duty!
https://live.jotcast.com/chat/live-chat-with-former-mlb-catcher-gary-b...
Connor⚾️
12:04
Is profar basically gonna be getting a minors deal @ this point? Just confused why he isn’t signed
Steve Adams
12:07
I think he'll get a big league deal somewhere but not convinced it'll be for more than the 7.5 million player option he turned down. There are a few guys like this every year ... linger on the market and take a deal that most consider surprising/disappointing. Speculatively, he could have gone out seeking more money than teams felt he was worth, then by the time his asking price dropped to what they'd been thinking, most clubs had exhausted their offseason budgets.

There's any number of scenarios that could be at play. Offseason injuries happen, personal situations, etc. I don't think we knew Michael Conforto was hurt until like four months after he originally injured himself, for instance.

Definitely NOT saying I think or have heard there's an injury or other circumstance with Profar. Just saying that there are lots of unknowns at play with any free agent.
Steve C
12:07
Don’t you think Tylor MeGill deserves the first shot at Mets fifth starter now that Quintana will be out for an extended period?
Steve Adams
12:09
David Peterson was really good for the Mets last year -- better performance and healthier than Megill. I'm intrigued by Megill and would like to see what he could do over a larger sample when healthy, but Peterson posted a sub-4.00 with secondary metrics to match over 105 innings  last year.
Ron Hodges
12:09
Steve, do you think that stolen bases will ever reach the levels it did in the 80's when it seemed most teams had a base stealing threat at the top of their lineup.
Steve Adams
12:10
I don't, because I think there are lots of risk-averse teams that are more cognizant/wary of the downside of poor stolen base efficiency in 2023 than there were in 1985. But I do think there'll be quite a few more steals this year, and the results so far in spring training generally support that.
AW Taylor
12:11
Do you like the WBC? Fans lose interest in spring games will this help fans gain excited about games again? Will Ohtani strikeout Mike Trout?
Steve Adams
12:11
Love the WBC
Miles Mikolas
12:11
if an extension doesn’t come to be, what is my market value with another solid campaign? 3/55?
Steve Adams
12:15
Something like that doesn't sound outrageous to me. I'd have a hard time predicting more than three years. Mikolas will be 35 in 2024, so you're talking age-35 through age-37 on that deal.

Chris Bassitt just got 3/63 for ages 34-36. He hit the market a year younger and with more missed bats.

There'll be a bit more trepidation regarding Mikolas given that he's been injured more lately (though not last year), is a year older and already missed fewer bats.

Qualifying offer will matter, too. If he repeats 2022 or close to it, he's an obvious QO, but some teams might be extra-wary about parting with a pick to sign a 35-year-old command specialist
Who moderates?
12:16
I asked how he would like to see the differences in payroll addressed.  I thought a good question ... and wanted to here a GM's perspect.  My question never made it out of moderation.
Steve Adams
12:16
Is this in response to Ed Lynch yesterday? Ed chooses the questions himself, just like I'm choosing them now. He had hundreds of people in there (as I do here). There's just no way to get to everything. I have like 150+ questions right now, and new ones will come in faster than I can answer them.
Trenbologna Sandwich
12:17
Do the Cubs move Happ at the deadline if they're sitting at .500 at the deadline?
Steve Adams
12:17
If they're at .500, no I don't think so. If they're a decent ways out of playoff contention, then likely yes.
Bill
12:18
why do rteams not help us Fantasy guys out and announce their closers, who will be Oaklands closer
Steve Adams
12:18
The A's are paying Trevor May more than the rest of their bullpen combined. Hard to bet against him for that role.
rayk1411
12:19
Which of Muller, Cusick and Tarnok will end up as bullpen guys for the A's in their system ? thanks
Steve Adams
12:19
Muller has the best chance of starting for them, among that bunch.
5th starter
12:20
I guess Bailey Falter will get the first chance for the fifth spot with the Phillies? Anyone else have a legit chance? Plassmeyer?
Steve Adams
12:21
I think it'd be hard for anyone other than Painter to overtake Falter on the depth chart. Falter was a pretty solid option for them in 2022.

Todd Zolecki wrote at MLB.com last night that even though they haven't announced anything, the Phils aren't especially concerned it's a long-term thing for Painter. He's been down from throwing for a week now, though, and if he's down much longer, I think it all but ices the fifth spot in the rotation for Falter (barring an injury of his own)
12:22
Anthony Franco ran through the Phillies' fifth SP options at MLBTR a few weeks back (pre-Painter injury):

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/02/phillies-rumors-fifth-starter-r...
Salary Cap Hater
12:23
With the way the market has grown for player contracts in the past 20-30 years, do you think a salary cap will end up becoming necessary for MLB? I'd hate to see it happen, but at the same time, I don't think any one player is worth $40-50 million a year (I said the same thing when players started to reach the $30 million mark)
Steve Adams
12:25
As long as the league's revenues keep going up, why care what the individual players make? MLB's revenues have more than tripled since A-Rod first signed that 10-year, $252MM deal ... and you still have stars signing for $25MMish annually (Harper, Bogaerts, etc.)

I get being gobsmacked by the numbers and whatnot, but I don't know, I don't consider it any different than what actors are paid to star in movies, tv shows, etc. It's the entertainment industry, and as long as the industry profits keep rising, so too will the cost of hiring the talents that consumers want to see.
Angels fan
12:27
Would Othani accept a ridiculous offer from the angels to stay.
Steve Adams
12:27
It's not like they've burned the bridge there. If they offer something silly, I'm sure he'll stay. Postseason berth this season would sure help, though
B Snit’s Bongos
12:27
Who will accrue more WAR in 2023? L. Nootbaar or R. Acuna Jr.?
Steve Adams
12:27
I love Noot, but RAJ here for me
Rays
12:28
Josh Lowe or Luke Raley on OD roster or both? And who do you think takes Glasnow’s spot (as much as any one person does, considering rays)
Steve Adams
12:30
Raley's having a really good camp, and I feel like he's easier to plug into a part-time/role player spot than Lowe, who they still have hope for as  an everyday guy.

I don't think anyone firmly takes Glasnow's spot. Could see Beeks opening in front of a bulk guy (Chirinos, Fleming), or the Rays just playing matchups with it and cycling some combination of Chirinos and Fleming back there depending on their opponent for the day.

Early in the season, it's especially easy to skip the five spot in the rotation because of baked-in off-days on the calendar, as well.
Pitch Clock
12:30
Weekly pitch clock observation. I’m in the boat of “we’ll all get used to it in a month or two.” I do wonder what is MLB’s goal from shortening the game? The average game length in 2022 was 3:03. Average NFL length was 3:12. At what point do we realize that some people just don’t like the game of baseball regardless of how fast it is? On a side note, do you think the quickness of innings will harm pitchers’ health? Lest rest time and putting more stress on the arm.
Steve Adams
12:33
I agree we'll get used to it. I like the idea of it and think once it's integrated seamlessly, we'll forget it's even there and appreciate the swifter pace of play and shorter games.

I don't agree with the idea comparing the NFL and MLB though. I don't think people care about long NFL games because most are watching football once, maybe twice a week. Getting together for football is sort of this occasional, social ritual where maybe you have friends/family over for the game, head to the bar to watch in a group setting, etc.

Baseball's season is 162 games, plus the postseason. The idea that MLB and NFL games are comparable in length in 2022 doesn't really matter, because there were like 10x as many MLB games; at that point, the extra length definitely matters, and I can see where burnout occurs.
John
12:34
Does the move toward more stolen bases change how we value catchers?  It has felt like everything was a little too focused on framing in recent years anyway.
Steve Adams
12:34
Yeah I think having a strong-armed catcher with a quick poptime and release becomes all the more important, now. Running has been decreasing in general in seasons past, so it's understandable that the throwing aspect of the game kind of took a backseat. I expect more focus to be placed on this area of the defensive skill set for catchers.
Cardz
12:36
Masyn Winn is having a good spring so far....if he keeps it up, can the Cards make room for him on the major league roster?  I think most fans are done with DeJong...
Steve Adams
12:39
Winn is 20, with zero games above Double-A -- and he's still only a couple years into being a full-time position player. I don't think 17 good plate appearances in camp are going to prompt them to jump him to the Majors. He'll head to Triple-A, and understandably so.

You can be sick of DeJong, and that's fine/understandable, but he's not the starting shortstop anyway. Edman's going to start there. By 2024, maybe it's Winn at SS, Edman at 2B and Donovan in a super-utility role (with DeJong's contract bought out), but Winn making the Opening Day roster would be pretty stunning.
Making it in 2023, that is.
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