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Chat with MLBTR's Steve Adams: 3/5/24
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Steve Adams
8:18
Good morning! You can start asking questions ahead of time if you prefer, and we'll get underway at 1pm CT! Looking forward to it!
1:02
Greetings!
Let's begin!
Pitching Injuries
1:03
Gray and now Giolito market for remaining starters will heat up now.
Steve Adams
1:04
I wouldn't equate the two. Gray has a hamstring strain and could miss a couple weeks, if that. Giolito is likely done for the season. One of these things should be a catalyst for an additional move, the other not so much.

I think the Cards could use SP depth regardless, but that's just because I didn't care for their preferred method of reshaping the rotation. Adding Gray was nice, particularly at that price. The Gibson/Lynn deals felt redundant and unexciting
Utah Fan
1:04
Should Minnesota pursue Snell on a short term contract (ala Correa type deal)? Perhaps Mongomery?
Steve Adams
1:06
You can argue that any team *should*. The Twins, in particular, make sense as a team with no luxury tax concerns and plenty of distance between their current payroll and franchise-record mark. But their chairman, Jim Pohlad, was pretty candid last week in expressing that it likely wouldn't happen.

I think the Twins make plenty of sense to sign either player long-term, even setting aside the recent short-term talk, but I'd be surprised by it (more so with Snell than with Monty).
1:07
If you want to get really literal and really, really optimistic... Jim Pohlad said they won't sign a $30MM player. That probably rules out Snell, but Montgomery signing a $22-24MM AAV doesn't feel crazy at this point. Could try that, backload the deal such that much of the heavy lifting is done in seasons with less fiscal uncertainty, etc.

But... it's a stretch. To say the least. I think he'll end up in Boston at this point.
Sam and Dave
1:08
How did you like the Wheeler extension? It was a year shorter than I thought that it would take, but the AAV was also higher than I projected - even for that short of a term. Zack reportedly only wanted a two to three year deal, after all.
Steve Adams
1:10
I'm about as big a Wheeler fan as you can find. I thought he should've been the NL MVP in 2021, but most voters tend to adhere to the idea that an MVP should be a position player unless you're looking at a historic pitching season. I digress.

I think the deal is generally fine. There's probably some sticker shock for a lot of people, and I'm not sure I'd have pegged $42MM, but I'd have assumed something north of $35MM if we're limiting the term to three years.

Wheeler is a borderline top-five pitcher in baseball for me and certainly top 10.
melloman
1:11
Any updates on the Giants with JD Davis? I'm assuming they could put together a package with him and other prospects, possibly Bart, to get more pitching?
Steve Adams
1:13
Not sure one year of Davis at $6.9MM and/or a dice roll on Bart is going to bring back a meaningful rotation upgrade, though it could certainly fetch some kind of back-end candidate I suppose. But they also dragged their feet on signing Chapman to the point that some teams that made sense -- D-backs, Twins, Blue Jays -- got their RH and/or DH bats elsewhere
Joey
1:14
Joey Bart traded for a sack of nails and a tuna fish sandwich.  Who are the takers?
Steve Adams
1:14
Either Florida team makes a lot of sense to me.
Brewers
1:14
Do the brewers bring in another SP
Steve Adams
1:17
They should have the payroll space -- currently at about $110MM and (obviously) no luxury-tax concerns. And with the rotation behind Freddy Peralta looking like Wade Miley (currently a bit behind schedule), Colin Rea, Jakob Junis, DL Hall and maybe Aaron Ashby, there's arguably a need, too.

If we're picking off-the-wall dark horses to land Snell on a short-term deal, there are far less logical options. If they do add someone, I assume it'd be more in the Lorenzen vein, though.
PHL guy
1:18
The inevitable pitcher injuries are happening fast now.  Forget the Boras clients, how surprising is it that guys like Odorizzi and Lorenzen are stilling waiting to sign?
Steve Adams
1:20
Odorizzi not that much. If he's just now working out for clubs, he probably waited until he was healthy enough to consider seriously looking for a landing spot.

Lorenzen is more surprising, but it all comes down to what he's been seeking. Ken Rosenthal reported this morning he's been looking for two years. I'd wager that early in the offseason, that number was higher. If 2/20 would've gotten Lorenzen back in November, he'd probably be off the board.

There are a handful of guys every year who come out seeking a deal of X length, don't get it, and are left lingering in spring training. Not saying that's for sure what happened here, but Lorenzen was a first-time All-Star coming off a career-high 153 innings, and he'd played the previous two seasons on one-year contracts.
1:21
That reads, to me, like someone who'd come out hoping to secure the longest deal possible. He had to know four or more was always a long shot, but I wouldn't be at all surprised if they were trying for three earlier in the winter. In an offseason with less financial uncertainty around the league, maybe it would've been there, but it's been a tough winter for the middle tiers of the market, generally speaking.
John
1:22
As we get closer to opening day, does that allow the Orioles to sneak in and get snell or Montgomery?
Steve Adams
1:24
Their ownership hasn't shown any willingness to spend like that since control of the team was passed from Peter Angelos to his sons.

It's not my money, so I think the Orioles should just go wild and sign both.

But I'd be pretty shocked if they actually signed either.
Brent
1:24
Does Greinke, Cueto, or Rich Hill sign before the season starts?
Steve Adams
1:26
Hill has said at multiple points he thinks he might sign midway through the season. He's in his mid-40s, has a family, probably doesn't recover quite as nicely as he used to when he was  a spring chicken in his late 30s, haha. I doubt he does before Opening Day but can see him signing in June or July.

Greinke's been quiet on whether he wants to keep going. Have to imagine he was amenable to another Royals run, but they've gone out and gotten Wacha and Lugo to pair with Ragans, Singer and either Lyles or another in-house candidate.

Cueto's the one who I think is most realistic, but it'd be on a minor league deal at this point. (Probably would've been anyway, given how 2023 went.)
ChiSoxSuperFan
1:27
I know you dislike any mention of the White Sox beening near or even middle of the AL Central. I don't mean them winning World Series, but why you so down on a team that can be exciting & finishing near the top in a generally weak AL Central?  I mean like who truly picked Diamondbacks being in World Series? I'll pick Sox near the .500 mark & would be really happy finishing 15-20 games better than last year considering FO not wanting to spend.
Steve Adams
1:29
I don't care where the White Sox are picked to finish. I have them at the bottom of the division -- or close to it -- because a rotation of Dylan Cease, Erick Fedde, Michael Kopech, Mike Soroka, Chris Flexen and Jared Shuster looks bad, and because the bottom third of their lineup (Lopez, DeJong, Maldonado) might combine for like a .250 OBP. And their depth, in general, isn't good.
Jordan Montgomery
1:30
It doesn't make since for the Sox to bring me in now, I'd have been a good addition to help them be somewhat competitive, but now it feels like it would be a waste, right?
Steve Adams
1:31
Yeah that's the easy argument against it. If the Sox just think 2024's a lost cause, signing Montgomery doesn't make a lot of sense. But if the price drops enough, they could see it as a good buy for 2025 and beyond.
answer me this
1:32
Is Tanner Scott the closer in Miami
Steve Adams
1:33
He's their best reliever and should get that chance again, yeah
H-Town Train
1:33
With Verlander going on the IL do you think the Astros will look for a FA  Arm?
Steve Adams
1:34
No. It's not a long-term injury. Their GM, Dana Brown, publicly stated today that he doesn't expect to. I'll have those comments on the site a bit after the chat, but no. I laid out the reasons (CBT-wise) that another addition could be tough to see in our post on the Verlander injury
Rusty Oakland Machine
1:34
It seems like forever that the Oakland A's have consistently produced plus major leaguers who are then traded before their big payday.  The last batch included Semien, Olson, Chapman, Bassitt, Manaea, Montas, etc.  But who is there now?  Outside of Gelof and Rooker it's looking pretty bleak.  Is the Oakland machine officially broken?
Steve Adams
1:37
Rooker doesn't even count in the same sense as Gelof. He's on his fourth organization since being drafted and was just kind of a nice DFA market find for them.

Generally speaking, the A's player development department has had a rough few years. It's not entirely surprising in the sense that ownership's willingness to spend (or lack thereof, I should say) extends beyond the roster. The A's had baseball's smallest analytics department last year. Their front office and player dev teams, in general, don't receive the same level of investment or ownership support that is standard throughout the industry.
Josh
1:37
Is it possible the Padres open the year without Profar or Azocar on the roster?  Something like Merrill in Left, Marsee in center and either mercado or mitchell as the 4th-5th outfielder.  Keep Profar over Azocar because he can play the infield..
Steve Adams
1:38
They signed Profar to a big league deal. I imagine he's ensured a spot. Azocar has a minor league option left, so if they bring in some more OF help, sure I can see him heading to the minors.
Guest
1:38
Will madison bumgarner get a deal? He is only 34.
Steve Adams
1:41
He didn't sign last year, and part of the reasons the D-backs cut him was reportedly a reluctance to change and adapt to the more modern game and to his approach as he aged into his mid-30s.

Zach Buchanan wrote a lengthy and excellent piece on it for The Athletic:
https://theathletic.com/4538589/2023/05/22/madison-bumgarner-diamondba...

So... maybe someone gives him another shot, but if Bumgarner is set on sticking with what worked for him from 2012-18, I can see teams just passing -- as they have for nearly a year now, apparently.
Your thoughts
1:41
Is Lorenzen a closer pitcher to a no. 2 than Mikkolas, Lynn, Matz & Gibson. I see all 4 of these guys as 4 & 5 end of the rotation guys. I like Lynn & Mikkolas but at this stage I do not see them better than a number 4.
Steve Adams
1:42
No, I think Lorenzen is a fine fourth/fifth starter but is generally comparable to a lot of the arms the Cards already have.
He makes more sense for  a team like the Giants, Red Sox or Rays, to me, where even a solid fourth starter could make a big difference.
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