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Chat with MLBTR's Steve Adams: 2/4/25
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Steve Adams
8:54
Good morning! I'm about to record this week's podcast episode with Darragh. We'll get this chat going at 1pm CT, but feel free to submit a question ahead of time if you prefer.
1:01
Greetings!
Let's get underway
Robby parker
1:01
Do you think we will have to wait 9 days for the LTIR for any big signing to take place
Steve Adams
1:02
No. Most teams still have some fungible guys near the back end of the 40-man, and we're also close enough to camp opening that teams could hammer out an agreement and just wait until the 60-day IL is available to finalize the deal and open a 40-man spot with that IL availability.
Trout
1:02
Could halos make me player/manager next season?
Steve Adams
1:02
I'm weirdly asked this question a lot and don't understand it, but ... no. I doubt we'll ever see a player/manager again.
Luis robert
1:02
How well would I have to play in order to be traded by July?
Steve Adams
1:03
I think if Robert looks healthy and impresses in spring training there'll be some degree of market, and if he plays well through April the same. If I were the White Sox, I wouldn't wait until July if I could help it.
Electric boogy
1:04
Cease trade? If so where and who?
Steve Adams
1:04
Of all the Padres impending free agents, he strikes me as the likeliest. I'll have something on the best fits for him and some plausible structures/packages up on the site before too long here.
Justin Turner
1:05
Am I playing this year?
Steve Adams
1:06
Yeah, I imagine he'll sign a one-year deal in the next couple weeks. Red Sox, Twins, D-backs, Tigers among the teams looking for RH bats.
BoogieWoogie
1:06
Why didn't SF jump at the chance to sign Flaherety? Beyond Webb their pitching looks extremly queustionabl.
Steve Adams
1:08
I don't really agree that it's "extremely questionable," but Darragh and I talked on the podcast this morning about how it sure seems like they could've jumped for Flaherty, yeah. I think they'd have been wise to do so.

Suppose we don't know for certain that they didn't try. Flaherty has spoken openly about how much he loved Detroit and how he'd be happy to land back there. If the Giants (or a lot of other teams, for that matter) offered a similar opt-out structure, it wouldn't be a surprise if he just preferred to go back to where he had his big rebound season and where he already loves the manager, clubhouse vibes, teammates, etc.
Bob
1:08
Do you buy Jerry Dipoto's bull**** about how good they feel about their roster?  Who is the starting 2nd baseman?  Who is the starting 1B?
Steve Adams
1:11
I'm sure he'd have loved to have improved the roster further, but ownership didn't give him much ability to do so. I'm not sure what fans want him to say in that regard. "Hey I'd have loved to have gone after Bregman or signed Ha-Seong Kim or really anyone, but John Stanton pulled the rug out from under us and we've got no money to work with as a result" wouldn't exactly bode well for his employment outlook.

Also, the Mariners won 85 games last year, so I don't think it's unreasonable to think Dipoto genuinely thinks there's a 90-win team somewhere in there.

Luke Raley/Donovan Solano could be a fine 1B platoon. Second base, sure it looks rough, but the Mariners have a deep farm and Cole Young could be up midseason.

I don't like their offseason, but given what the front office had to work with, I also recognize that the options were extraordinarily limited.
Closers
1:12
How much of a shared closer situation will there be in KC and Seattle? In KC, will Carlos Estévez take over from Lucas Erceg? In Seattle, will a healthy Gregory Santos  challenge Andres Muñoz, who blew 5 saves last year?
Steve Adams
1:12
Royals have pretty much said it'll be a mix-and-match situation but with Estevez getting more looks than others. Munoz is one of the most talented relievers in baseball and I fully expect him to both be awesome and handle the vast majority of Seattle's save situations.
Guarded Indian
1:12
Stroman to the Guardians make sense if the Yankees are willing to pay down some of that salary?  Shouldn't cost a lot in prospects and he would eat some innings in Cleveland which they need.
Steve Adams
1:14
If we're only looking at 2025, sure, but the Guardians -- more than most clubs -- will have to be wary of that vesting player option since at 140 innings, Stro earns the right to choose whether he's back for another $18.5MM in 2026 or whether he goes to free agency.

Cleveland won't want anything to do with that '26 option, so I don't think they're a great fit despite generally agreeing with your assessment that some solid veteran innings would be nice for them to add.
Alex Who?
1:14
Doesn't Alex Verdugo make a lot more sense for the Astros than Alex Bregman at this point?
Steve Adams
1:16
The better player (Bregman) makes more sense for the win-now club. Verdugo... eh, I would just see what the in-house guys can do. I'm not a huge fan of the player, and it seems like owner Jim Crane is pretty intent on staying beneath the tax line. Verdugo isn't a player they'd break that preference for, and they'd need to do so in order to sign him, since they're about $4.5MM or so away from the barrier.
Phil
1:17
Did the Reds improve enough to win 90 games?
Steve Adams
1:17
Will the Reds (77 wins in 2024) win 90+ games in 2025?
Yes (18.8% | 243 votes)
 
No (81.2% | 1,049 votes)
 
Total Votes: 1,292
Doug
1:17
I have in my head something like 3/45-50 as fair for Nick Pivetta. Is that about right? Do you think he gets that now?
Steve Adams
1:20
At this point, no. Might just be a straight one-year deal. I thought he was going to accept the QO (or work out something in that 3/45 range with the Red Sox).

I liked him around 45-50 when we were talking about his possible contract and didn't think he'd get a QO
Kenny Lofton
1:20
Why am I not in the Hall of fame? I have a higher WAR than Ichiro
Steve Adams
1:20
Lofton should be in. Hard stop.
Perry Minasian
1:21
I am done right? So much for my boss having unfinished business. Why didn't I sign a big free agent?]
Steve Adams
1:22
You can argue about whether it's big, but the Angels signed Yusei Kikuchi for three years and $63MM, which certainly isn't a small deal. Also, Minasian's ability to sign a "big" free agent is entirely dependent on owner Arte Moreno's willingness to do so.

I think the Angels will add another couple relievers on small deals still.
Jed
1:22
Cassie and Wicks/Assad and what else for Cease?
Steve Adams
1:23
I think Caissie and one of those two is a good offer, or at least the foundation for one. Anything from that point on I think you're looking low-level lotto tickets or 40-FV type of depth pieces from the lower portion of a team's ranked prospects.
Bob castellini’s cat
1:24
The Reds poll is interesting but do YOU feel the PECOTA projection for the Reds to finish last with 74 wins is accurate?
Steve Adams
1:27
It's based on a statistical algorithm that weights for things like presumptive regression from last year's best performers, durability that a lot of fans don't take into account, strength of depth players, etc.

Fans get bent out of shape about individual PECTOA and Steamer projections and the like every year. I think most fans -- and this isn't an affront or insult to you or anyone else -- just don't take the time to read or understand what PECOTA and like projection systems really are or what they're trying to accomplish.
"Please remember that PECOTA and our simulations do not “pick” a team to “win” any particular number of games. Rather, they identify an estimated range of games a team might win and tells you the average of that fairly wide range. That is the point of the visualizations."
~From B-Pro's PECOTA projection explanation
Stros
1:28
Also why dump Pressly to dip below the tax and sign Bregman? If you're going to dip below the tax just to make a signing that exceeds it, you might as well keep the valuable reliever that's useful for a win now team
Steve Adams
1:29
The Astros were shopping Pressly long before they circled back on Bregman. The trade of Pressly has little to nothing to do with their ongoing efforts to re-sign Bregman.

Jim Crane has effectively said he's willing to pay the tax for the right player. Bregman is clearly that player, if it can be worked out. If not, the Astros are under the tax now and will reset their penalty level.
Jerry
1:30
Steve, still waiting on the reasoning for posting the Luka Doncic trade announcement on MLBTR. Ignore it all you want, but zero people thought that was a good idea. (Was it yours?)
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